Let's Talk About Baltimore (AFC Championship)

[SHOWTIME]

Headed back to the AFC Championship Game!!!! Discuss.

[StalkRavenMad]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

And who are they trying to sack, sir?

They're trying to sack the QB of the team that had the lowest sack percentage in the league even with all of its offensive issues, who has been consistently elite at not being sacked throughout his career.

Throw in that he is protected by one of the better pass-blocking OLs in the NFL, and the prediction the Ravens will have to blitz to get him on the ground is pretty darn sensible.

The only out here is that the Ravens are able to get Madubuike consistently whipping Allegretti. He's no Joe Thuney, but he's also a quality veteran with starting experience and just held up well against Ed Oliver last week. And has Creed Humphrey to his right for help if he needs it on pass sets.

Thiae tackles are the most penalized crew in the NFL.

[Chief_N_Bama]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

I'm not discounting the Chiefs' pass protection or Mahomes' elusiveness. They're both great. And the Ravens will blitz. What I was addressing is the suggestion that the Ravens cannot get home without blitzing and so will be forced to blitz more than they want to/should.

The Dolphins game two weeks ago was an example of a team that had no choice but to run the same blitzes repeatedly against the Chiefs. They had so many injuries that even though the blitz is a known death sentence against Mahomes, doing so was still better than not getting any pressure whatsoever with four and just letting Mahomes carve them up.

The Ravens are in a completely different position. They get to the QB with four.

Of course, that won't be enough. If all you ever did was bring four, that wouldn't amount to nearly enough pressure. So they will need to blitz occasionally. But it's not like any kind of blitz is prima facie dead on arrival against Mahomes. The thing you can't do is give him looks he has already seen on tape or in the game. But the Ravens have as deep and diverse of a playbook as there is in the league, and they will give him looks he hasn't seen before. He might still beat them, but it's not going to be spamming of the same blitz packages that he easily recognizes and brushes off.

Mahomes has played in 16 postseason game including 3 Super Bowls. He has 3590 regular season pass attempt and 587 postseason pass attempts.

Lamar is played in 5 and this will be his first AFCCG. He has 2112 regular season pass attempts and 158 postseason pass attempts.

One of these guys is likely to see looks he's never seen before. And it's not Mahomes.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by BigBeauford

Wtf, lol.

Chiefs now officially have ruled out WR Kadarius Toney for Sunday’s AFC Championship game due to a hip injury and personal reasons.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 27, 2024

He’s celebrating his birthday.

HBD to our guy, KT 🥳 pic.twitter.com/6eqO7f0mlB

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 27, 2024

[UChieffyBugger]

I don't know if anyone has seen the numbers but there is a CLEAR WEAKNESS in the Ravens defense that no-one is really talking about. And what is it you may ask?

QB RUNS!!

Cj Stroud= 4 carries, 20 yards, 5 yards per carry

DTR= 4 carries, 24 yards, 6 yards per carry

Pickett= 1 carry, 16 yards

Willis= 3 carries, 17 yards, 5.7 per carry

Dobbs= 6 carries, 26 yards, 4.3 yards per carry and a TD

Watson= 8 carries, 37 yards, 4.6 yards per carry

Browning= 4 carries, 40 yards, 10 yards per carry ( plus Burrow had one carry for 7 yards before getting hurt so it was 5 carries for 47 yards total in that game between the qb's)

Herbert= 4 carries, 47 yards, 11.8 yards per carry

Lawrence= 4 carries, 41 yards, 10.2 yards per carry

Darnald= 1 carry, 9 yards

Tua= 2 carries, 14 yards, 7 yards per carry

Obviously one scramble here and there can tilt the stats but look at those Browning, Herbert and Lawrence stats!!..and those are guys that are pocket passers mainly . I also remember watching that Browns game and Watson's runs late in the game to convert 3rd downs demoralised that defense.

Other than Dobbs and Watson Pat will be the BEST runner they have faced this year...FACT. Meanwhile the Chiefs have faced FIELDS, HURTS AND ALLEN (TWICE!!). We also saw Browning, Herbert and Lawrence like the Ravens. So in reality we've had plenty of reps against tough running QB's, and also the ones who gave the Ravens problems.

I honestly think Pat's runs could do a lot of damage tomorrow. Especially as Chris Simms already pointed out the Ravens DL haven't been great just rushing four. So they may need to send more guys which could open up rushing lanes.

And lastly all three of their loses were at home. Is it a coincidence that the four times teams put pressure on them in that building they lost three and was taken to OT in the other? We'll see.

[Bearcat]

[digger]

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by StalkRavenMad

The only issue with this is that you cherry pick how the Ravens beat an injured Texans team while in the same breath lauding the Chiefs for beating two teams whose defense were depleted by injuries.

Uhhhh..... no.
No he did not do that.
Why you making up shit now,

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

He’s celebrating his birthday.

HBD to our guy, KT 🥳 pic.twitter.com/6eqO7f0mlB

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 27, 2024

This mother****er is getting cut or going to the practice squad all year next year

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

He’s celebrating his birthday.

HBD to our guy, KT 🥳 pic.twitter.com/6eqO7f0mlB

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 27, 2024

Ah those days of Skyy and Toney not producing because Andy didn't want to put too much on tape and they would bust out in the playoffs.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by BWillie

This mother****er is getting cut or going to the practice squad all year next year

The responses to that Tweet are great.

Don’t throw him a party, he’ll drop it.

— EveryMorning Quarterback (@EMQpodcast) January 27, 2024

[Pepe Silvia]

Originally Posted by BWillie

This mother****er is getting cut or going to the practice squad all year next year

We can hope.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Re: the actual game, I am not concerned about Mahomes, or Kelce handling the confusing stuff the Ravens throw at them.

I wouldn't be concerned about Kelce being confused by the Ravens' scheme either. He's one of the smartest guys to ever play tight end.

I would be more worried about the existence of Kyle Hamilton. He was drafted in large part to be a guy who erases tight ends. Hamilton's role has expanded beyond that since then and he is usually asked to do more than just cover a tight end. But if in this game he is pretty much glued to Kelce's hip, Kelce doesn't have a mismatch like he usually does. Hamilton is as big, physical, and smart as any defensive back in the NFL.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

I'm not discounting the Chiefs' pass protection or Mahomes' elusiveness. They're both great. And the Ravens will blitz. What I was addressing is the suggestion that the Ravens cannot get home without blitzing and so will be forced to blitz more than they want to/should.

The Dolphins game two weeks ago was an example of a team that had no choice but to run the same blitzes repeatedly against the Chiefs. They had so many injuries that even though the blitz is a known death sentence against Mahomes, doing so was still better than not getting any pressure whatsoever with four and just letting Mahomes carve them up.

The Ravens are in a completely different position. They get to the QB with four.

Of course, that won't be enough. If all you ever did was bring four, that wouldn't amount to nearly enough pressure. So they will need to blitz occasionally. But it's not like any kind of blitz is prima facie dead on arrival against Mahomes. The thing you can't do is give him looks he has already seen on tape or in the game. But the Ravens have as deep and diverse of a playbook as there is in the league, and they will give him looks he hasn't seen before. He might still beat them, but it's not going to be spamming of the same blitz packages that he easily recognizes and brushes off.

Styles and matchups matter.

Yes, the Ravens have, over the course of the season, had success getting to the QB with just 4 pass rushers. In the aggregate.

That does not mean they will have success against the Chiefs' offensive line, which is one of the better pass blocking units in the NFL, and arguably the best - complete - pass blocking unit the Ravens have played (you could put the Lions ahead of them, probably, at full strength).

I hope the Ravens send their core 4 against the Chiefs and try to get home with 4 consistently. The Chiefs are better against that than most teams the Ravens have played or in the NFL period.

Originally Posted by StalkRavenMad

The only issue with this is that you cherry pick how the Ravens beat an injured Texans team while in the same breath lauding the Chiefs for beating two teams whose defense were depleted by injuries.

I have not been lauding the Chiefs for beating the Bills or the Dolphins or pointing that out as a reason the Chiefs will win. All those games tell us is that for the first time this season (a trend that started after the Christmas Day debacle, when they simplified the playcalls and narrowed down the personnel being used) the Chiefs are showing the ability to avoid penalties and drops stalling and killing drives.

You guys keep pointing to the wins against 10-win teams thing, which is an interesting factoid but not reliably predictive of anything (especially when looking at the context of those wins). It would be far more effective to just talk about crushing the 49ers on the road and Lions at home. That's far more influential and predictive of the Ravens having success tomorrow than anything else (and even then, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison).

[Chief_N_Bama]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

I wouldn't be concerned about Kelce being confused by the Ravens' scheme either. He's one of the smartest guys to ever play tight end.

I would be more worried about the existence of Kyle Hamilton. He was drafted in large part to be a guy who erases tight ends. Hamilton's role has expanded beyond that since then and he is usually asked to do more than just cover a tight end. But if in this game he is pretty much glued to Kelce's hip, Kelce doesn't have a mismatch like he usually does. Hamilton is as big, physical, and smart as any defensive back in the NFL.

It’s weird how ravens get so much credit for something they haven’t done yet but the Chiefs get no credit for a 3-1 record against your qb and holding him to a 78 passer rating. His second worst of any opponent he’s played at least twice.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

I wouldn't be concerned about Kelce being confused by the Ravens' scheme either. He's one of the smartest guys to ever play tight end.

I would be more worried about the existence of Kyle Hamilton. He was drafted in large part to be a guy who erases tight ends. Hamilton's role has expanded beyond that since then and he is usually asked to do more than just cover a tight end. But if in this game he is pretty much glued to Kelce's hip, Kelce doesn't have a mismatch like he usually does. Hamilton is as big, physical, and smart as any defensive back in the NFL.

It will be an interesting matchup, for sure. TEs have put up pretty good numbers against the Ravens defense despite the presence of Queen and Smith and Hamilton. What gives on that?

Hamilton might match up really well against Kelce. We'll find out tomorrow. KC is not above using Kelce as a decoy to create opportunities and big plays for other plays, like TE2 Noah Gray, or Rashee Rice, or for deep shots, or even for a RB on a screen.