Super Bowl 58 Mic'd Up

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I agree you are stating facts but....

Giving Mahomes the ball with a chance to win the SB with a TD is not factored into those stats. Playoff Mahomes is a totally different beast and have no idea how you can factor in "Playoff Mahomes" into a number or percentage? But, I know I'd put my money on Playoff Mahomes.

But KC had scored one TD in their previous 6 quarters. Wasn't exactly a slam-dunk that they'd score one in the OT period. If it were that easy, they'd have done it in regulation.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

But KC had scored one TD in their previous 6 quarters. Wasn't exactly a slam-dunk that they'd score one in the OT period. If it were that easy, they'd have done it in regulation.

The 49ers probably made the "correct" analytical decisions based on a win probability model. Basically how often does it go 0-0, 3-3, 7-7 or 8-8. I imagine it goes 3-3 a decent amount and rarely 0-0. If that even happens 20% of the time then you are trying to deduce if the advantage you gave the other team by letting them go 2nd with 4 downs is worth more or less than that say 20%.

I think every coach should understand you have to go for 2 if the other team scores 7 and you answer with a TD.