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Old 03-08-2024, 01:53 PM   #1
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How much of a decline are you guys expecting in performance that re-signing Jones takes us from winning "8" things to having to resign ourselves to a threepeat? Hell even given a decline how the hell does a 4 year contract damage the chiefs to the point even after the 3 guaranteed years are over, they still can't run the Superbowl?
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Old 03-08-2024, 02:01 PM   #2
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How much of a decline are you guys expecting in performance that re-signing Jones takes us from winning "8" things to having to resign ourselves to a threepeat? Hell even given a decline how the hell does a 4 year contract damage the chiefs to the point even after the 3 guaranteed years are over, they still can't run the Superbowl?
I would point to the Von Miller contract as a cautionary tale. I think everyone wants Jones here, but just not at all costs.
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Old 03-08-2024, 02:02 PM   #3
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I would point to the Von Miller contract as a cautionary tale. I think everyone wants Jones here, but just not at all costs.
It's only a cautionary tale because he got hurt at his age.
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Old 03-08-2024, 02:05 PM   #4
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I would point to the Von Miller contract as a cautionary tale. I think everyone wants Jones here, but just not at all costs.
There's a injury risk to every contract. I don't know how people are ok taking that injury risk at 28 million but 30 is just way too much.

And Chris Jones is 29. Von Miller was 33 when he signed that contract. Two totally different scenarios. Not to even mention Von was a year removed from missing an entire season with an injury and had multiple other major injuries in his career including an ACL tear. The situations are not comparable at all.
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Old 03-08-2024, 02:30 PM   #5
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There's a injury risk to every contract. I don't know how people are ok taking that injury risk at 28 million but 30 is just way too much.

And Chris Jones is 29. Von Miller was 33 when he signed that contract. Two totally different scenarios. Not to even mention Von was a year removed from missing an entire season with an injury and had multiple other major injuries in his career including an ACL tear. The situations are not comparable at all.
Not arguing the difference between $28 and $30 million at all. Just pointing out that Miller was dominant even after missing an entire season. He got hurt and now they are cutting other players because they are stuck with his salary as his performance dropped off significantly. DTs tend to drop off some around the 30 year old mark. Not implying that this will be the case with Jones, it’s something to consider. While not an exact apples to apples comparison the concept of the cap space and dead money remains there.
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Old 03-08-2024, 02:33 PM   #6
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There's a injury risk to every contract. I don't know how people are ok taking that injury risk at 28 million but 30 is just way too much.

And Chris Jones is 29. Von Miller was 33 when he signed that contract. Two totally different scenarios. Not to even mention Von was a year removed from missing an entire season with an injury and had multiple other major injuries in his career including an ACL tear. The situations are not comparable at all.
The longer you’re in the league the more likely you are to get hurt unfortunately. Mitch Schwartz was an iron man for health until he wasn’t. Joe Thuney was until he wasn’t this year (did he tear his pec?), Fisher for injured at 30 and it ended his career, Kelce started having injury concerns last year and they legit thought his knee injury was season ending at first, Tamba Hali started having bad injury problems at 33.

It’s a real concern paying these guys insane money once they enter their 30’s, especially if you already have a highly paid QB on the cap.
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Old 03-08-2024, 02:45 PM   #7
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There's a injury risk to every contract. I don't know how people are ok taking that injury risk at 28 million but 30 is just way too much.

And Chris Jones is 29. Von Miller was 33 when he signed that contract. Two totally different scenarios. Not to even mention Von was a year removed from missing an entire season with an injury and had multiple other major injuries in his career including an ACL tear. The situations are not comparable at all.
Because a line has to be drawn somewhere.

But ultimately the issue is that the only way we can really get this WRONG is if Jones gets paid and gets hurt or stops playing hard. And with Jones we've seen him stop playing hard for pretty prolonged periods of time. He's not above taking plays off.

That's a risk you have to consider.

Because ultimately not spending it on Jones doesn't mean it won't get spent. That cap space will get used on players and probably pretty damn good ones. If it's spent on a single guy, your risk of rolling snakeyes is a little higher.

And you can't just keep hitting 'bid' in these scenarios. If your puke point is $29 million, you can't just go "eh, another million won't hurt..." Set your number and stand by it. And if the deal doesn't get done, you have to move along.

That's where this frustration is coming from. The public statements for about 18 months have been along the lines of "we'll get this done..." and yet here we are. Still. With this not having gotten done.
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Old 03-08-2024, 02:52 PM   #8
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Because a line has to be drawn somewhere.

But ultimately the issue is that the only way we can really get this WRONG is if Jones gets paid and gets hurt or stops playing hard. And with Jones we've seen him stop playing hard for pretty prolonged periods of time. He's not above taking plays off.

That's a risk you have to consider.

Because ultimately not spending it on Jones doesn't mean it won't get spent. That cap space will get used on players and probably pretty damn good ones. If it's spent on a single guy, your risk of rolling snakeyes is a little higher.

And you can't just keep hitting 'bid' in these scenarios. If your puke point is $29 million, you can't just go "eh, another million won't hurt..." Set your number and stand by it. And if the deal doesn't get done, you have to move along.

That's where this frustration is coming from. The public statements for about 18 months have been along the lines of "we'll get this done..." and yet here we are. Still. With this not having gotten done.
Not to beat the point to death but if I keep hearing how optimistic they are and it doesn't get done it's going to be tough to believe anything else they say. Noit that anyone gives a shit what we believe but still.
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Old 03-08-2024, 03:17 PM   #9
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Not to beat the point to death but if I keep hearing how optimistic they are and it doesn't get done it's going to be tough to believe anything else they say. Noit that anyone gives a shit what we believe but still.
Until proven otherwise, his agents are gonna play hardball for top dollar. It's what they did last year. I assume they are hoping to get north of $32M per year from someone else in the market.
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Old 03-08-2024, 04:01 PM   #10
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Until proven otherwise, his agents are gonna play hardball for top dollar. It's what they did last year. I assume they are hoping to get north of $32M per year from someone else in the market.
Yep. As long as Jones kept them employed, figured that'd be the case. It's unfortunate, but there's only so much you can do when you're working with obstinate jackasses only focused on the $$$. I figured maybe Chris would realize his interests and theirs don't exactly align since he's made it more than obvious he wants to stay, but that hasn't born anything of consequence and they're still his representation.
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Old 03-08-2024, 03:34 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Because a line has to be drawn somewhere.

But ultimately the issue is that the only way we can really get this WRONG is if Jones gets paid and gets hurt or stops playing hard. And with Jones we've seen him stop playing hard for pretty prolonged periods of time. He's not above taking plays off.

That's a risk you have to consider.

Because ultimately not spending it on Jones doesn't mean it won't get spent. That cap space will get used on players and probably pretty damn good ones. If it's spent on a single guy, your risk of rolling snakeyes is a little higher.

And you can't just keep hitting 'bid' in these scenarios. If your puke point is $29 million, you can't just go "eh, another million won't hurt..." Set your number and stand by it. And if the deal doesn't get done, you have to move along.

That's where this frustration is coming from. The public statements for about 18 months have been along the lines of "we'll get this done..." and yet here we are. Still. With this not having gotten done.
Yeah, it's all about the risk.

And when you're in a Super Bowl window in the middle of a dynasty, the best way to blow it up is to take on too much risk.

Signing Christian Wilkins for $5-6M/AAV less than Jones, for example, and using the rest of that money to sign, say, Tair Tartt to go with him in the middle, gives you less ultimate upside (though still a pretty nice amount) but also much more floor.
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Old 03-08-2024, 02:36 PM   #12
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How much of a decline are you guys expecting in performance that re-signing Jones takes us from winning "8" things to having to resign ourselves to a threepeat? Hell even given a decline how the hell does a 4 year contract damage the chiefs to the point even after the 3 guaranteed years are over, they still can't run the Superbowl?
If we can resign Jones and Kelce plays another few years I’d say we win probably 4 more in next 10 years. If Jones is gone that number probably drops to 2. Mahomes can make receivers look good. He turned Rashee Rice into Jerry Rice.
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Old 03-08-2024, 04:13 PM   #13
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If we can resign Jones and Kelce plays another few years I’d say we win probably 4 more in next 10 years. If Jones is gone that number probably drops to 2. Mahomes can make receivers look good. He turned Rashee Rice into Jerry Rice.
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re·sign
/rəˈzīn/
verb
1.
voluntarily leave a job or other position.
"he resigned from from the company in protest of the treatment of his co-workers"
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leave
go
hand in one's notice
give in one's notice
give notice
I think what you mean to say is re-sign.

Oh, and your premise is based on a ton of variables. I wouldn't say it is either or.
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