DVOA and Postseason odds tracking

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Basileus777

Math doesn't even make any sense, teams locked into having to win 4 playoff games like the Ravens should not mathematically have better odds.

That's exactly what you're seeing in the CCG appearance though... Chiefs and Lions have a higher chance at appearing in that game since they have the first round bye.

Originally Posted by Basileus777

NFL just has too many numbers with no predictive ability behind them, DVOA does not tell you who is more likely to win playoff matchups.

It predicts it to the extent of historical DVOA numbers, and given 4 teams are all within 2.4% of each other, yeah it's not a crazy strong predictor.

The Ravens' H I S T O R I C DVOA last season probably ****ed up the numbers ever so slightly by not even making it to the Super Bowl.