AFC Stock Up / Stock Down, Post-Free Agency

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Let's discuss how we think each AFC team has done so far this offseason and if they project as better, worse, or about the same entering the draft (where the champion of the conference will ultimately be determined)

AFC West

Chiefs: Better. My main reason actually has a lot to do with how much bad luck the offense had last year - it would be hard not to improve based on that alone. But it appears LT has some stability, although I'm not sure they're done adding there. The WR trio is one of the best in all of football, though they've yet to play a game together. The Fulton signing is my favorite because it's a force multiplier, allowing Trent to go back to the Star/Nickel role where he can impact games at an elite level and Connor plays Safety. We're a Charles Omenihu away from being in a really great spot entering the draft.

Chargers: Same. Feels like much the same team with the same limitations that will get them bounced in January. They're trying to do it the right way though, building through the draft. May be some short term pain for some long term gain. They need more speed on O.

Broncos: Better. Hate to say that I largely really like what Payton has done so far. They're rolling the dice on some ex-49ers with health question marks, but the defense is set up to be top-five once again. Nix and how he handles the sophomore year is critical, but this looks like a sure-fire playoff team.

Raiders: Better. This is only about the QB, by getting Geno they HAVE to be better. Still not ready to compete at the highest level and won't be for awhile.

AFC East

Bills: Slightly better. This one could easily be "worse" once Joey Bosa has his inevitable long-term injury. Beane did his normal thing, kept his own guys on reasonable contracts. I don't love switching Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins out for Josh Palmer, but maybe I'm stupid. Overall they're betting that their core guys can finally get it done in Jan. Must have a great draft.

Patriots: Much better. Look, they've paid out the nose and a lot of these deals won't age well. But they are much better on paper with these new players. They will win at minimum three more games this yr under Vrabel. If Maye is legit, they are wild card contenders.

Dolphins: Worse. A lot of bad contracts are finally catching up to them. Mike McDaniels days are numbered, just like Tyreek's.

Jets: Worse. Coaching may get them further along this year, but the roster is not any better. I'm not a Justin Fields believer. This team won't be in the playoffs, AGAIN.

AFC North

Ravens: Same. Their only addition is Hopkins, but they kept the Left Tackle. Haven't lost anyone of consequence. This is as same as same gets. Great organization will probably have a nice draft and be right back in the playoffs.

Steelers: Better. Rodgers will be an improvement when he inevitably signs here. Love the Metcalf addition, knocks Pickens down a peg. They'll still struggle to win a playoff game however, if they make it.

Bengals Worse. I'm dying on the hill that they're using the wrong scape goats. Lou Anarumo was the biggest reason for their deep playoff runs, and they didn't continue to give him the requisite talent to succeed. Now, they're putting all their eggs into the same basket that hasn't got it done yet. Burrow will get his stats, but this defense will stink. If Hendrickson walks, they miss the playoffs again.

Browns Better. Kept Myles Garrett and will most definitely improve at QB. Could contend for playoffs as they seem so unpredictable year to year.

AFC South

Texans: Worse. Traded away Tunsil, that alone makes it this for now. I do like the depth they've added on DL, as they will need to draft offense if they want to fix last year's woes and get Stroud back on track.

Jaguars Same. Nothing really to note here. Still a lacking roster that will bank on coaching to maximize Trevor and contend in the worst AFC division.

Titans Same. Dan Moore was an overpay, but does raise the floor of the offense. QB is the ?. I foresee this being the last year of Brian Callahan before Mike Borgonzi might just try to pluck Steve Spagnuolo from us.

Colts Slightly better. I like the adds of Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum in a secondary that really needed some dogs back there. QB is still going to hold them back and finally end the Chris Ballard era next January.

[St. Patty's Fire]

like

the texans looked super mid all year and they just traded their LT. Jags are very likely to add a really good player at 5 to their D. titans we know will be bad. colts are in purgatory. I certainly don’t expect the Jags to be a 2-4 win team next year. 5-6 at worst IMO

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

That’s what I’m getting at. I’m optimistic about Moore at LT but being realistic, he could crash and burn. As could Kingsley at LG. That entire left side of the line is a complete unknown.

I was just drawing a distinction between what we saw in our various LTs last year, and what we saw from Moore even if only in spot duty. Our LT play was so horrific that we had to move our star OG into the spot.

It's certainly not a straight up comparison between what we had and Moore, but within the limitations of the comparison we do have, we look to be better.

[staylor26]

We were so ****ing slow and old on offense last year. We're clearly going to be much better once we draft a RB and get Rashee back. I don't know what Moore's ceiling is but he's an obvious upgrade over the shit we had at LT. Zero doubt.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

If you’re counting Rashee’s return then that helps your case but we have to note that he’s still coming off of injury and facing possible suspension.

We’ve lost about 1,000 snaps from the RB room, another 1,000 at S losing J Reid, 900 at DT losing Wharton and probably Nnadi, and another 200+ from a really good situational pass rusher in Omenihu.

We don’t really have any in-house answers for those losses outside of Hicks. Even that makes us worse, IMO, as we’re now that much thinner at the position.

I’m just not sure we can realistically expect the kinds of performances we’ve grown accustomed to lately from a bunch of rookies and second-wave FAs.

None of our primary AFC competitors — not Buffalo, Baltimore, LA, or Denver — are returning a player like Rashee Rice. They all were very lucky not to suffer that type of loss. So you absolutely have to factor him into the calculus year over year.

The RB snaps they are losing largely stunk. Hunt was the only decent player and he couldn’t break a single 20-yard run, so even he was not playing in his ideal role at near 30 years old.

Hicks is here to take Reid’s role. I’ll hear you on Wharton and Omenihu, but I think Charles is coming back. And it’s the perfect draft to restock your DL anyhow.

I’m not saying it’s hyperbolic, but the Kansas City arrow is at least pointing somewhat up.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

...but the Kansas City arrow is at least pointing somewhat up.

And that should worry the rest of the league.

[SHOWTIME]

Patriots still don't have an offensive line. Defensively, they are better, but they lost their center and made no improvements to the LT/LG position.

[RunKC]

The biggest risers have to be the Patriots and Raiders. Vrabel is a great defensive coach and they got 5 good players in FA. I’m a bit biased bc I’m a Drake Maye truther, but their defense looks like it could be top 10, especially with Barmore coming back. Like getting Morgan Mosses at RT. Draft will be huge for them. I think they could give the Bills problems.

Raiders went from arguably the worst HC and QB to a proven HC who isn’t a moron and a QB who is probably average. Not saying they are some hype team. They won 4 games and will probably win 6, maybe 7. Fully expect good ole Pete to take Jeanty at 6 to be his new Marshawn bc Pete loves running the football.

On the other end, the biggest losers are without question the Bengals. Basically kept their own average players and ****ed around by holding their best players hostage. Perfect year to trade Higgins and get a high draft pick and they don’t do it despite not being able to pay.

Their GM said he wants to make Chase the highest paid non-QB, which at the time was $36 million. Now that Myles Garrett just destroyed that market it’s $40 million

The only thing rivaling the Chiefs success is watching that stupid ****ing poverty cocky ass franchise fall apart with a young top 5 QB ever since they called us Burrowhead

[O.city]

Chiefs need Rashee to be a top 10 wr in the league next year and Fau to be a legit de

Get those things and you’re golden

[Deberg_1990]

Tyreek days are numbered with the Phins?

Come on home Tyreek!!

[MahomesMagic]

On paper we look similar.

As of now pre-draft, if we went into the season like this I would expect our defense to be the strength of the team finishing top 5-7.


The offense I expect to be mediocre and be in the 12-14 overall range.

[Gary Cooper]

Luck has a big factor of course. We tend to be healthier going into the playoffs and SB than pretty much every team we've faced. That's what makes losing so disappointing because you don't know if you'll have that same fortune the following year.

Our defense was completely healthy in the playoffs and SB. The offense didn't have Rice, but we made several moves since his injury so it's not like he got hurt in week 18.

Our roster is good enough to win the SB. Just need good luck to keep the key players healthy.

Also, it would help if we can draft two rookies who can contribute meaningfully. It would also help if Wiley or Kingsley have a better sophomore season.

[St. Patty's Fire]

like

the texans looked super mid all year and they just traded their LT. Jags are very likely to add a really good player at 5 to their D. titans we know will be bad. colts are in purgatory. I certainly don’t expect the Jags to be a 2-4 win team next year. 5-6 at worst IMO

[BlackOp]

Theoretically, Chiefs are finally getting Brown and Rice at the same time....with Worthy having a year in the system. Unless they get hurt again...that's a major upgrade.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Far too much projection to assume the Chiefs got better, IMO.

We lost an elite LG who will now be replaced by a total question mark. Our new LT is a backup who looked decent in spot duty. We lost a good S and a good, versatile DE. We lost two reliable, if unspectacular, RBs. We also lost a ton of snaps in the WR room, though I am counting that as a win. I think we need new blood there.

I haven't been paying attention if new threads haven't been started. **** megathreads.

Did Omenihu sign somewhere? Our RBs... did Hunt sign somewhere? Perine? Or are they just hanging out waiting for a phone call?

Who are the snaps we lost at WR? Did Justin Watson go somewhere? He's the only one I can think of. Hopkins signed, but that guy was looking traaaaash

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by O.city

Chiefs need Rashee to be a top 10 wr in the league next year and Fau to be a legit de

Get those things and you’re golden

I think you have to add Suamataia to that list as well.

Originally Posted by RealSNR

I haven't been paying attention if new threads haven't been started. **** megathreads.

Did Omenihu sign somewhere? Our RBs... did Hunt sign somewhere? Perine? Or are they just hanging out waiting for a phone call?

Who are the snaps we lost at WR? Did Justin Watson go somewhere? He's the only one I can think of. Hopkins signed, but that guy was looking traaaaash

Only Perine is signed elsewhere of the names you mentioned, but the question is whether we got better or not. All of those guys are currently not contracted by the Chiefs so I won’t assume they’ll end up back with us.

At this very moment in time, on paper, I don’t believe we can presume to be better. The draft can change a lot but obviously that often just invokes more questions/uncertainties.

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

None of our primary AFC competitors — not Buffalo, Baltimore, LA, or Denver — are returning a player like Rashee Rice. They all were very lucky not to suffer that type of loss. So you absolutely have to factor him into the calculus year over year.

The RB snaps they are losing largely stunk. Hunt was the only decent player and he couldn’t break a single 20-yard run, so even he was not playing in his ideal role at near 30 years old.

Hicks is here to take Reid’s role. I’ll hear you on Wharton and Omenihu, but I think Charles is coming back. And it’s the perfect draft to restock your DL anyhow.

I’m not saying it’s hyperbolic, but the Kansas City arrow is at least pointing somewhat up.

Yeah, I think our arrow is always pointing in a general upward direction as long as we’ve got Mahomie and Reid.

I’m not a doomer. I claimed we were clearly worse off immediately after trading Tyreek Hill as well and one nifty little draft completely threw that prediction on its head. We can do the same again. We’ll just need to prove it on the field.