Football AFC Stock Up / Stock Down, Post-Free Agency - Page 6

pugsnotdrugs19 · 03-13-2025, 11:03 AM

Let's discuss how we think each AFC team has done so far this offseason and if they project as better, worse, or about the same entering the draft (where the champion of the conference will ultimately be determined)

AFC West

Chiefs: Better. My main reason actually has a lot to do with how much bad luck the offense had last year - it would be hard not to improve based on that alone. But it appears LT has some stability, although I'm not sure they're done adding there. The WR trio is one of the best in all of football, though they've yet to play a game together. The Fulton signing is my favorite because it's a force multiplier, allowing Trent to go back to the Star/Nickel role where he can impact games at an elite level and Connor plays Safety. We're a Charles Omenihu away from being in a really great spot entering the draft.

Chargers: Same. Feels like much the same team with the same limitations that will get them bounced in January. They're trying to do it the right way though, building through the draft. May be some short term pain for some long term gain. They need more speed on O.

Broncos: Better. Hate to say that I largely really like what Payton has done so far. They're rolling the dice on some ex-49ers with health question marks, but the defense is set up to be top-five once again. Nix and how he handles the sophomore year is critical, but this looks like a sure-fire playoff team.

Raiders: Better. This is only about the QB, by getting Geno they HAVE to be better. Still not ready to compete at the highest level and won't be for awhile.

AFC East

Bills: Slightly better. This one could easily be "worse" once Joey Bosa has his inevitable long-term injury. Beane did his normal thing, kept his own guys on reasonable contracts. I don't love switching Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins out for Josh Palmer, but maybe I'm stupid. Overall they're betting that their core guys can finally get it done in Jan. Must have a great draft.

Patriots: Much better. Look, they've paid out the nose and a lot of these deals won't age well. But they are much better on paper with these new players. They will win at minimum three more games this yr under Vrabel. If Maye is legit, they are wild card contenders.

Dolphins: Worse. A lot of bad contracts are finally catching up to them. Mike McDaniels days are numbered, just like Tyreek's.

Jets: Worse. Coaching may get them further along this year, but the roster is not any better. I'm not a Justin Fields believer. This team won't be in the playoffs, AGAIN.

AFC North

Ravens: Same. Their only addition is Hopkins, but they kept the Left Tackle. Haven't lost anyone of consequence. This is as same as same gets. Great organization will probably have a nice draft and be right back in the playoffs.

Steelers: Better. Rodgers will be an improvement when he inevitably signs here. Love the Metcalf addition, knocks Pickens down a peg. They'll still struggle to win a playoff game however, if they make it.

Bengals Worse. I'm dying on the hill that they're using the wrong scape goats. Lou Anarumo was the biggest reason for their deep playoff runs, and they didn't continue to give him the requisite talent to succeed. Now, they're putting all their eggs into the same basket that hasn't got it done yet. Burrow will get his stats, but this defense will stink. If Hendrickson walks, they miss the playoffs again.

Browns Better. Kept Myles Garrett and will most definitely improve at QB. Could contend for playoffs as they seem so unpredictable year to year.

AFC South

Texans: Worse. Traded away Tunsil, that alone makes it this for now. I do like the depth they've added on DL, as they will need to draft offense if they want to fix last year's woes and get Stroud back on track.

Jaguars Same. Nothing really to note here. Still a lacking roster that will bank on coaching to maximize Trevor and contend in the worst AFC division.

Titans Same. Dan Moore was an overpay, but does raise the floor of the offense. QB is the ?. I foresee this being the last year of Brian Callahan before Mike Borgonzi might just try to pluck Steve Spagnuolo from us.

Colts Slightly better. I like the adds of Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum in a secondary that really needed some dogs back there. QB is still going to hold them back and finally end the Chris Ballard era next January.

smithandrew051 · 03-15-2025, 09:39 PM

If healthy, WR is better than last year. Considerably.

RB is the same and we haven’t had the draft yet. Expect an improvement.

TE is the same, but I’d expect Kelce to be in better shape.

C to RT is the same. LG should be better than Caliendo. LT should be better than Thuney.

DL is worse right now, since we don’t have Omenihu or Wharton. A heavy DL draft could change things.

LB is the same.

Safety is slightly worse, but Hicks improving in year 2 makes it likely at least as good. Probably better.

Corner is better.

Special teams are the same.

So in the draft, I’d expect 2-3 picks on the DL, a RB, a WR, and 2 DBs. The other pick or two would likely be a developmental OT and a LB.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 03-16-2025, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

If healthy, WR is better than last year. Considerably.

RB is the same and we haven’t had the draft yet. Expect an improvement.

TE is the same, but I’d expect Kelce to be in better shape.

C to RT is the same. LG should be better than Caliendo. LT should be better than Thuney.

DL is worse right now, since we don’t have Omenihu or Wharton. A heavy DL draft could change things.

LB is the same.

Safety is slightly worse, but Hicks improving in year 2 makes it likely at least as good. Probably better.

Corner is better.

Special teams are the same.

So in the draft, I’d expect 2-3 picks on the DL, a RB, a WR, and 2 DBs. The other pick or two would likely be a developmental OT and a LB.

We’re looking through the same lens and it’s the right prescription IMHO.

I have high expectations for where this offense is going. To what you said about the WRs, it’s a matter of can we get something similar to our health luck in 2018-2023, or do we get another 2024?

The odds of another 2024 are next to none, but there’s nothing that says it won’t be worse than some of the prior years still.

But if and when it’s the full trio of WRs, the added tools at RB, and hopefully a left tackle who doesn’t ever let a pass rusher destroy the gameplan… expectations are very high.

There’s a fine tipping point there where once an offense’s skill personnel gets to a certain level, it puts defenses on their heels in a way that even helps the offensive line. That’s where we have to aspire to be.

Quite simply, can you dominate certain defensive game plans with the speed of Worthy and Brown, some with the easy button that is Rashee Rice, can you use Kelce and Gray in a way that isn’t overkill but also lets them thrive, do you bring in that final piece to the RB room that allows all those guys to survive a 20-game season

One guy can make a bigger difference than people realize. Having Rashee Rice in those playoff games as the key cog not only makes us way harder to defend but it also makes life easier on the surrounding cast. He catches a couple slants for first downs early in the SB, and a game like that can play out completely different because you’re putting the defense more on their heels.

**Rausch** · 03-16-2025, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

We’re looking through the same lens and it’s the right prescription IMHO.

I have high expectations for where this offense is going. To what you said about the WRs, it’s a matter of can we get something similar to our health luck in 2018-2023, or do we get another 2024?

The odds of another 2024 are next to none, but there’s nothing that says it won’t be worse than some of the prior years still.

But if and when it’s the full trio of WRs, the added tools at RB, and hopefully a left tackle who doesn’t ever let a pass rusher destroy the gameplan… expectations are very high.

The WR group is the same group that couldn't get open in the SB vs. a stagnant defense that provided no mystery or change ups. Worthy got open, but that was it. No one got open fast enough shallow or intermediate to consistently move the offense.

And I'm not, at all, a believer in our new LT. We've got some evidence that he doesn't get pushed around and bullied at LT but also has limited athleticism and gets beat the same way Brown did. So, not really a solution but not a horrible disaster either. Just, put simply, not good enough.

This needs to be a good draft. I love the CB signing and with a healthy Watson and McDuffie that's likely to evolve into a shut down unit. Safety will take a step back but CB will take a huge step forward if McDuffie is primarily in the slot. Overall I think the defense is better this year. Hicks play will go a long way in determining that.

If we try and build the offense on quicker routes and delivering the football like we did vs. the Texans we could be very successful. Run the football with an even better room than last year and a younger O line. Overpaying for Tunsil would have bought us 3 years to solve the LT position until someone worth trading up for was in the draft. We could have done that much cheaper than we did with Brown but passed for some reason.

Once again LT play will determine our ceiling.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 03-16-2025, 09:33 AM

Andy Reid’s been trying to tell us for a month that he blames the SB primarily on there not being enough threat in the run game.

Kinda checks out when you see the way Philly’s front pinned their ears back and didn’t respect the possibility of runs at all.

Some of that’s on Andy no doubt, but the personnel was the personnel and Caliendo tanked a lot of our run blocking. When you’re getting that kind of blocking, you need a back that can create explosive runs on his own — we didn’t have that whatsoever with where Pacheco was in recovery.

Just don’t be shocked if and when KC takes RB before pick 66.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 03-16-2025, 09:41 AM

Let’s keep it real on the LT thing and not go full CP.

A bad block here or there, which Orlando Brown was prone to do, is NOT what set this offense back in any demonstrable way nor did that make Mahomes play with happy feet.

It was a game like Cincy or Vegas last year, where the LT could not block the edge whatsoever. Games where if Mahomes held it for 3 seconds he was getting hit 80+% of the time.

That’s the shit that cost us big time and had a domino effect week upon week.

So if you’re telling me Jaylon Moore is going to lose like Orlando Brown Jr. did? Sign me up yesterday. That’s not a problem. The no-hitters, the left tackle looking like he should play in the UFL — that’s what we can’t have for 15.

RunKC · 03-16-2025, 10:11 AM

The Chiefs offense fell apart without this guy. He was the new Kelce. On the way to a top 10 WR season. And we replaced him with slow ass Hopkins. Even with Rashee back we still need to add to the WR room.

DL, RB and WR. That should be our first 4 picks IMO

"I miss him"

but it's just weeks 1-3 Rashee Rice #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/zdhwrS3Av2
— Price Carter (@priceacarter) December 3, 2024

MahomesMagic · 03-16-2025, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

The WR group is the same group that couldn't get open in the SB vs. a stagnant defense that provided no mystery or change ups. Worthy got open, but that was it. No one got open fast enough shallow or intermediate to consistently move the offense.

And I'm not, at all, a believer in our new LT. We've got some evidence that he doesn't get pushed around and bullied at LT but also has limited athleticism and gets beat the same way Brown did. So, not really a solution but not a horrible disaster either. Just, put simply, not good enough.

This needs to be a good draft. I love the CB signing and with a healthy Watson and McDuffie that's likely to evolve into a shut down unit. Safety will take a step back but CB will take a huge step forward if McDuffie is primarily in the slot. Overall I think the defense is better this year. Hicks play will go a long way in determining that.

If we try and build the offense on quicker routes and delivering the football like we did vs. the Texans we could be very successful. Run the football with an even better room than last year and a younger O line. Overpaying for Tunsil would have bought us 3 years to solve the LT position until someone worth trading up for was in the draft. We could have done that much cheaper than we did with Brown but passed for some reason.

Once again LT play will determine our ceiling.

The Philly defense knew our playbook as well as our WR's did.

No chance to get open when the other team is running your routes for you.

Sassy Squatch · 03-16-2025, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

The Chiefs offense fell apart without this guy. He was the new Kelce. On the way to a top 10 WR season. And we replaced him with slow ass Hopkins. Even with Rashee back we still need to add to the WR room.

DL, RB and WR. That should be our first 4 picks IMO

"I miss him"

but it's just weeks 1-3 Rashee Rice #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/zdhwrS3Av2
— Price Carter (@priceacarter) December 3, 2024

Huh? Offense and Mahomes were ****ing horrible with Rice this season. Threw his 5th interception of the season on the play Rice got hurt. It probably would've gotten better but to say it fell apart after Rice went down just isn't true.

Sassy Squatch · 03-16-2025, 02:57 PM

Suamataia getting ****ed up by Hendrickson was the catalyst for Mahomes and the offense struggling. Didn't trust his blindside after that and it was obvious.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 03-16-2025, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sassy Squatch

Suamataia getting ****ed up by Hendrickson was the catalyst for Mahomes and the offense struggling. Didn't trust his blindside after that and it was obvious.

Yeah.

And to the Rice point — I think early in the year, Mahomes, because of the LT issue, losing Hollywood after a strong camp, and Kelce taking a visible step or two back… that led him to lean on Rice like a crutch. It was overkill.

But I think it’s safe to say now that because Brown is back, because Worthy has developed into a truly good WR, adding Rice back into that mix only means good things.

No one needs force-fed. Just keep the f’n chains moving. And it’s why I think the early draft pick at RB is coming too — because even when all these WRs are somehow covered or facing conservative defenses, Reid is going to want a quick killer in the passing game out of the backfield.

Mahomes getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds is the best quarterback the sport has ever seen.

RunKC · 03-16-2025, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26

We were so ****ing slow and old on offense last year. We're clearly going to be much better once we draft a RB and get Rashee back. I don't know what Moore's ceiling is but he's an obvious upgrade over the shit we had at LT. Zero doubt.

It’s impossible for a QB to succeed when a defense can get historic level pressure with only 4 up front and drop 7 into coverage.

The absolute embarrassing lack of explosion outside of Worthy had to make the Eagles laugh their asses off.

The Chiefs might have had the slowest offense in football last year.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 03-16-2025, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

It’s impossible for a QB to succeed when a defense can get historic level pressure with only 4 up front and drop 7 into coverage.

The absolute embarrassing lack of explosion outside of Worthy had to make the Eagles laugh their asses off.

The Chiefs might have had the slowest offense in football last year.

There’s some truth to it but I think we overblow it some too. I mean Hollywood is fast as hell too.

I think it’s more like Philly had the #1 defense with a super fast unit in their own right, and with the styles make fights nature of the league, our running game that lacked any explosiveness was a really poor match for them. That’s before we consider the game plan stunk, and Mahomes was inaccurate from the start.

JohnnyHammersticks · 03-16-2025, 03:59 PM

Rice was leading the entire NFL in receptions and was 2nd in receiving yards when he got hurt.

If anyone thinks that - along with Hollywood breaking on the first play of preseason - didn't have a huge impact on our offensive numbers, please send me the name of your dispensary because you must be smoking/vaping/edible-ing some good stuff.

MahomesMagic · 03-16-2025, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks

Rice was leading the entire NFL in receptions and was 2nd in receiving yards when he got hurt.

If anyone thinks that - along with Hollywood breaking on the first play of preseason - didn't have a huge impact on our offensive numbers, please send me the name of your dispensary because you must be smoking/vaping/edible-ing some good stuff.

We scored 27 against a Ravens defense that was playing terrible early in the year.

We scored 26 against a Bengals defense that could not stop shit.

Then we scored 22 against the crappy Falcons on a nationally televised game.

In Rice's final game as a Chief where he was injured we had only scored 10 points against the Chargers until late in the 4th.

Sure, Rice was getting the volume and the fantasy football points.

But it wasn't translating into a powerhouse offense.

scho63 · 03-16-2025, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedinTexas

I'm worried about you.

Get in line.....

03-13-2025, 11:03 AM
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS Join Date: Aug 2013 Casino cash: $6629447	AFC Stock Up / Stock Down, Post-Free Agency Let's discuss how we think each AFC team has done so far this offseason and if they project as better, worse, or about the same entering the draft (where the champion of the conference will ultimately be determined) AFC West Chiefs: Better. My main reason actually has a lot to do with how much bad luck the offense had last year - it would be hard not to improve based on that alone. But it appears LT has some stability, although I'm not sure they're done adding there. The WR trio is one of the best in all of football, though they've yet to play a game together. The Fulton signing is my favorite because it's a force multiplier, allowing Trent to go back to the Star/Nickel role where he can impact games at an elite level and Connor plays Safety. We're a Charles Omenihu away from being in a really great spot entering the draft. Chargers: Same. Feels like much the same team with the same limitations that will get them bounced in January. They're trying to do it the right way though, building through the draft. May be some short term pain for some long term gain. They need more speed on O. Broncos: Better. Hate to say that I largely really like what Payton has done so far. They're rolling the dice on some ex-49ers with health question marks, but the defense is set up to be top-five once again. Nix and how he handles the sophomore year is critical, but this looks like a sure-fire playoff team. Raiders: Better. This is only about the QB, by getting Geno they HAVE to be better. Still not ready to compete at the highest level and won't be for awhile. AFC East Bills: Slightly better. This one could easily be "worse" once Joey Bosa has his inevitable long-term injury. Beane did his normal thing, kept his own guys on reasonable contracts. I don't love switching Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins out for Josh Palmer, but maybe I'm stupid. Overall they're betting that their core guys can finally get it done in Jan. Must have a great draft. Patriots: Much better. Look, they've paid out the nose and a lot of these deals won't age well. But they are much better on paper with these new players. They will win at minimum three more games this yr under Vrabel. If Maye is legit, they are wild card contenders. Dolphins: Worse. A lot of bad contracts are finally catching up to them. Mike McDaniels days are numbered, just like Tyreek's. Jets: Worse. Coaching may get them further along this year, but the roster is not any better. I'm not a Justin Fields believer. This team won't be in the playoffs, AGAIN. AFC North Ravens: Same. Their only addition is Hopkins, but they kept the Left Tackle. Haven't lost anyone of consequence. This is as same as same gets. Great organization will probably have a nice draft and be right back in the playoffs. Steelers: Better. Rodgers will be an improvement when he inevitably signs here. Love the Metcalf addition, knocks Pickens down a peg. They'll still struggle to win a playoff game however, if they make it. Bengals Worse. I'm dying on the hill that they're using the wrong scape goats. Lou Anarumo was the biggest reason for their deep playoff runs, and they didn't continue to give him the requisite talent to succeed. Now, they're putting all their eggs into the same basket that hasn't got it done yet. Burrow will get his stats, but this defense will stink. If Hendrickson walks, they miss the playoffs again. Browns Better. Kept Myles Garrett and will most definitely improve at QB. Could contend for playoffs as they seem so unpredictable year to year. AFC South Texans: Worse. Traded away Tunsil, that alone makes it this for now. I do like the depth they've added on DL, as they will need to draft offense if they want to fix last year's woes and get Stroud back on track. Jaguars Same. Nothing really to note here. Still a lacking roster that will bank on coaching to maximize Trevor and contend in the worst AFC division. Titans Same. Dan Moore was an overpay, but does raise the floor of the offense. QB is the ?. I foresee this being the last year of Brian Callahan before Mike Borgonzi might just try to pluck Steve Spagnuolo from us. Colts Slightly better. I like the adds of Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum in a secondary that really needed some dogs back there. QB is still going to hold them back and finally end the Chris Ballard era next January.
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03-15-2025, 09:39 PM	#76
smithandrew051 I Like The Kansas City Chiefs Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Shawnee, KS Casino cash: $-495600	If healthy, WR is better than last year. Considerably. RB is the same and we haven’t had the draft yet. Expect an improvement. TE is the same, but I’d expect Kelce to be in better shape. C to RT is the same. LG should be better than Caliendo. LT should be better than Thuney. DL is worse right now, since we don’t have Omenihu or Wharton. A heavy DL draft could change things. LB is the same. Safety is slightly worse, but Hicks improving in year 2 makes it likely at least as good. Probably better. Corner is better. Special teams are the same. So in the draft, I’d expect 2-3 picks on the DL, a RB, a WR, and 2 DBs. The other pick or two would likely be a developmental OT and a LB. __________________ My 2024 Adopt a Chief: Leo Chenal My Guy 2025 NFL Draft: Logan Brown, OT, Kansas Holy Hat!
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03-16-2025, 09:33 AM	#79
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS Join Date: Aug 2013 Casino cash: $6629447	Andy Reid’s been trying to tell us for a month that he blames the SB primarily on there not being enough threat in the run game. Kinda checks out when you see the way Philly’s front pinned their ears back and didn’t respect the possibility of runs at all. Some of that’s on Andy no doubt, but the personnel was the personnel and Caliendo tanked a lot of our run blocking. When you’re getting that kind of blocking, you need a back that can create explosive runs on his own — we didn’t have that whatsoever with where Pacheco was in recovery. Just don’t be shocked if and when KC takes RB before pick 66.
Posts: 29,037

03-16-2025, 09:41 AM	#80
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS Join Date: Aug 2013 Casino cash: $6629447	Let’s keep it real on the LT thing and not go full CP. A bad block here or there, which Orlando Brown was prone to do, is NOT what set this offense back in any demonstrable way nor did that make Mahomes play with happy feet. It was a game like Cincy or Vegas last year, where the LT could not block the edge whatsoever. Games where if Mahomes held it for 3 seconds he was getting hit 80+% of the time. That’s the shit that cost us big time and had a domino effect week upon week. So if you’re telling me Jaylon Moore is going to lose like Orlando Brown Jr. did? Sign me up yesterday. That’s not a problem. The no-hitters, the left tackle looking like he should play in the UFL — that’s what we can’t have for 15.
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03-16-2025, 10:11 AM	#81
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $-1460389	The Chiefs offense fell apart without this guy. He was the new Kelce. On the way to a top 10 WR season. And we replaced him with slow ass Hopkins. Even with Rashee back we still need to add to the WR room. DL, RB and WR. That should be our first 4 picks IMO "I miss him" but it's just weeks 1-3 Rashee Rice #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/zdhwrS3Av2 — Price Carter (@priceacarter) December 3, 2024 __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Jared Wiley
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03-16-2025, 02:57 PM	#84
Sassy Squatch The man you could post like. Join Date: Oct 2010 Casino cash: $-1270345	Suamataia getting ****ed up by Hendrickson was the catalyst for Mahomes and the offense struggling. Didn't trust his blindside after that and it was obvious.
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03-16-2025, 03:59 PM	#88
JohnnyHammersticks MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Chandler AZ Casino cash: $-389996	Rice was leading the entire NFL in receptions and was 2nd in receiving yards when he got hurt. If anyone thinks that - along with Hollywood breaking on the first play of preseason - didn't have a huge impact on our offensive numbers, please send me the name of your dispensary because you must be smoking/vaping/edible-ing some good stuff.
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