***Royals @ Brewers 3.31.25 GDT***

[poolboy]

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch

I think the Royals are so overrated. Let's consider this team:

Last year, Cole Ragans had a career year that he has no chance of ever duplicating even if he's really good and most of his professional seasons didn't reflect it. He'll never be that good again anyway just by the odds.

Last year, Seth Lugo had a career year that he has no chance of ever duplicating even if he's really good and most of his professional seasons didn't reflect it. He'll never be that good again anyway just by the odds.

Last year, Lucas Erceg had a career year that he has no chance of ever duplicating even if he's really good and most of his professional seasons didn't reflect it. He'll never be that good again anyway just by the odds.

Last year, Michael Wacha had a career year that he has no chance of ever duplicating even if he's really good and none of his prior seasons reflected it. He'll never be that good again anyway just by the odds.

Last year, Bobby Witt Jr.had arguably the best season any shortstop has ever produced. Good luck matching that season ever again (he played 161 games out of 162) just by the odds.

Last year, Salvy had amazing hitting stats through half the season, like he was 10 years younger than he is. He wont duplicate that again, just by the odds.

But every game, the Royals are -150 or bigger favorites. They have Cavan Biggio playing first and the corpse of Mark Canha as an every day regular.

I don't get it. I've been fading the Royals hard. I think they are considered a good team only because they made a postseason run last year. I hate betting against the boys while they are playing some ball but Jesus Christ the betting market thinks they are the Dodgers and they aren't. .500 would be a huge season.

you are over looking our improvements this season...Harvey, Erceg and Estevez out of the bull pen....India driving the bus, a healthy Vinnie, Garcia getting going etc...Its funny to me that you think Salvy, and Bobby are gonna regress.. Bubic back in the rotation ...sorry about Geritt Cole

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

Originally Posted by poolboy

you are over looking our improvements this season...Harvey, Erceg and Estevez out of the bull pen....India driving the bus, a healthy Vinnie, Garcia getting going etc...Its funny to me that you think Salvy, and Bobby are gonna regress.. Bubic back in the rotation ...sorry about Geritt Cole

This is fair. This is at least a counterargument.

I don't see how Bobby doesn'tregress though. The sort of season he had last year is rare. Rare to the point it's essentially never been done ever (depending on how you count some ARod seasons when he wasn't playing shortstop anymore). And he played 161 games. If he's exactly as good this year, but he plays, say, 157 games, that's lower WAR and regression, if only fractional. Hopefully he hits .400 this season with 50 homers and I look like a fool. Better odds that he, stud as he is, doesn't match that historical season again, cause historical seasons are hard to match.

Consider the health luck from each of those players I listed too though! Ragans is known to never be able to stay healthy which is why Texas gave up on him, not cause of his talent. Lugo hadn't pitched full time as a starter. How much would you bet that the trio of Wacha, Lugo and Ragans all pitch the whole season without a trip to the IL?

Pasquantino would ideally have a healthier season this year but at some point he just becomes an injury-prone player that you kinda just have to enjoy when he's healthy, and I've pretty much put him in that category already. I could certainly be wrong on that and I hope I am. But don't forget he blew out his shoulder pre-game from swinging a bat and had to have reconstructive shoulder surgery from it. From swinging a bat! And not even in a game!

Garcia improving offensively is a possibility, fair point.

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And to the guy with the Hawaii logo, I don't know what sportsbook you have access to, but I'd guess just oddshark. I only have one option in my state which is draft kings and they feature 60 cent lines. I haven't seen the Royals as underdogs yet. I did miss opening day though cause when I looked up when opening day was, it had already happened weeks before in Japan. I wasn't sure which day America would get games and that one slipped past the radar.