2025 NFL Draft Simulator Thread

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You know how much I love Henderson -- I think I may have been first on him 'round here (you not withstanding as an Ohio State guy).

He's been my RB2 in the draft, at least for the Chiefs, the entire time.

But I just can't. I can't get there in the 1st round. It's dogmatic, I know. I just can't talk myself into it.

Have I taught you nothing by taking Jahmyr Gibbs in the CP mock 2 years ago?

:P

A 2,000-yard, 20 TD RB might not be what Henderson becomes, but he certainly might be a guy that can get you 1500-1700 regularly.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Have I taught you nothing by taking Jahmyr Gibbs in the CP mock 2 years ago?

:P

A 2,000-yard, 20 TD RB might not be what Henderson becomes, but he certainly might be a guy that can get you 1500-1700 regularly.

Well you shouldn't have spent so damn much time talking me into Trevor Etienne!

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Well you shouldn't have spent so damn much time talking me into Trevor Etienne!

LOL. I really like Etienne a lot. I think he has some serious potential in a similar role.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

LOL. I really like Etienne a lot. I think he has some serious potential in a similar role.

Just less of a true 3-down guy, right? You’d need to pair him with someone who can help shoulder the load, probably a less versatile receiving back with some umph for short-yardage, and make the offense a little more predictable based on personnel.

Henderson would present the opportunity to unlock the offense on all 3 downs…

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Just less of a true 3-down guy, right? You’d need to pair him with someone who can help shoulder the load, probably a less versatile receiving back with some umph for short-yardage, and make the offense a little more predictable based on personnel.

Henderson would present the opportunity to unlock the offense on all 3 downs…

Etienne isn't much smaller than Henderson, but I don't know how much pounding he can do on first and second down. Henderson can't either, but I believe he can shoulder more of that load than Etienne. Henderson is a better player in all facets and has more experience than Etienne.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

LOL. I really like Etienne a lot. I think he has some serious potential in a similar role.

So let's game it.

I think we have to take Nolen and Harmon out of the equation for the sake of discussion, because I believe we are both in the camp that "In the unlikely event either of them fall to 31, you take him without blinking" right?

So we're really talking WR vs. RB.

Option A) Henderson and Dike/Lane
Option B) Burden and Etienne

I think I far prefer B.

And I know that's not an entirely fair exercise because you could obviously go WR in round 2 and get Noel, but the sort of shell gaming required for that makes a real comparison pretty tough.

The only real way to do it is to try the ceteris paribus game, take the pick previously used on a RB on a WR and the pick previously used on a WR on a RB.

Otherwise you're just playing around with the same argument I started with -- notably that I think the drafts tend to go a little better on balance when I attack the WR position in R1 with Burden or Egbuka.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So let's game it.

I think we have to take Nolen and Harmon out of the equation for the sake of discussion, because I believe we are both in the camp that "In the unlikely event either of them fall to 31, you take him without blinking" right?

So we're really talking WR vs. RB.

Option A) Henderson and Dike/Lane
Option B) Burden and Etienne

I think I far prefer B.

And I know that's not an entirely fair exercise because you could obviously go WR in round 2 and get Noel, but the sort of shell gaming required for that makes a real comparison pretty tough.

The only real way to do it is to try the ceteris paribus game, take the pick previously used on a RB on a WR and the pick previously used on a WR on a RB.

Otherwise you're just playing around with the same argument I started with -- notably that I think the drafts tend to go a little better on balance when I attack the WR position in R1 with Burden or Egbuka.

In a complete vacuum, option B looks superior to option A in terms of likely total net yards those players will accumulate but I'm not so sure that's the truth.

How much better would Henderson be over Etienne in all facets? Will he be? If you project based on collegiate production, Henderson should be better at a ratio of 3:2. You also need to consider the current makeup of this football team and the profound impact a RB like Henderson can make immediately versus a WR. Henderson is already an A+ blocker. That helps your issues at OT and that helps your QB even when he isn't catching passes. Etienne is a solid blocker but he's not Henderson in that regard. He's more like a B-.

If I look at Burden v Dike, my preference of your two options, I'd say that this ratio of 3:2 holds for them as well if we assume Burden is more like his 2023 self.

You should also consider the effect on special teams that any of these guys can make. All of them have some experience as returners, but I think the guy who most moves the needle there is Dike. If you went the Lane route, he also moves the needle substantially on special teams.

While Burden/Etienne could have a larger offensive impact, I think Henderson/Dike could have a similar one. I think there is a bonus that Dike will contribute in all facets of special teams, especially as both a punt and kick returner.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Have I taught you nothing by taking Jahmyr Gibbs in the CP mock 2 years ago?

:P

A 2,000-yard, 20 TD RB might not be what Henderson becomes, but he certainly might be a guy that can get you 1500-1700 regularly.

Felt a little stuck at 95 but...sheesh.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

Felt a little stuck at 95 but...sheesh.

I like this.

I find myself usually taking a trade down or making one, on this sim engine, at one of 63 or 66 and sometimes again at 95.

Usually can pick up another pick in the 100s and a nice pick in the future with that combo.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

Felt a little stuck at 95 but...sheesh.

I kinda like Parrish in that range. My concern is ultimately redundancy. He's a little undersized; makes me wonder if he can really operate on the boundary. McDuffie can while being a little shorter than ideal, but he's also just an awesome player.

Parrish is a hell of an athlete and can probably be a very good NCB...but that does take some of the starch out of the value of McDuffie locking down that slot himself. And puts him back out to boundary where he's merely very good instead of elite.

I think what I might prefer do is take Darien Porter at 63 instead of Burch, then Royals, then backfill with Kennard, Gillotte or Oladejo at 95.

Porter fascinates the hell out of me.