Rufus: Getting a QB is luck and luck alone!

[Hammock Parties]

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/11...e_and_simple_/

DAWES: CALL & RESPONSE – "It's luck, pure and simple"
Nov 14, 2007, 1:38:56 AM by Rufus Dawes - FAQ

CALL: I can guess what you think of the story [in the Kansas City Star, November 6, 2007] about not giving big money to running backs and [trying to] develop your own quarterback…. Brodie Croyle’s here now so I guess we’ll see.

RESPONSE: You can take all the guesswork out of it: running backs have short life-spans so I don’t necessarily disagree; developing quarterbacks, however, is not such an easy task and the Kansas City Star columnist’s thoughts here expose a surprising ignorance of the state of the position in today’s NFL. The comment in the Star was “Damn near every team in the league has drafted and started its own homegrown quarterback. Not the Chiefs.” (November 6, 2007)

Despite this pronouncement, however, the available evidence is overwhelming in rejecting this idea that if you really give it a go, as it were, in developing your own quarterback you will ultimately find success. Not even a simple majority of teams as it turns out has done so successfully, if one cares to look. Drafting and starting would appear to be the easy part.

Detroit hasn’t developed a superstar quarterback since, well, Bobby Layne. Currently less than half of the teams in the NFL have starting quarterbacks that they developed and the verdict is out on at least seven others who are currently starting for teams that drafted them. Only 14 of the 32 current starting quarterbacks are with their original teams.

In the jury-is-still-out category here are the questions: Is J.P. Losman the successor to Jim Kelly? Is Jason Campbell going to run Al Saunders’ offense the way he would like it run? Is Tarvaris Jackson a worthy successor to the legacy of Fran Tarkenton? How about Kellin Clemens? Is he the next Joe Namath? What about Alex Smith? Does he resemble Joe Montana in San Francisco in some way? Finally, will Jay Cutler dim memories of John Elway? The “damn” verdict is still out on all these players.

Baltimore head coach Brian Billick has long been considered to be an offensive guru and developer of quarterbacks. Yet, his starting quarterback came from Tennessee – the Titans, not the Volunteers. Meanwhile, one of the top QBs in the NFL this year is Cleveland’s Derek Anderson who’s thrown for 20 touchdowns already. He came from Baltimore. How’d Billick miss developing him? “Damn.”

Wasn’t Jon Gruden supposed to be the developer of quarterbacks? But he won the Super Bowl with Tony Dungy’s quarterback and hasn’t been able to “develop” his own, “damn” it. He’s playing with a quarterback now who’s been with five prior professional teams: Calgary, San Francisco, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay.

What do you suppose Jerry Glanville, then Atlanta Falcons head coach, was thinking when he traded Brett Favre to the Green Bay Packers? Did he not want to bother with that “damn” development? I mean, he had Chris Miller after all. Who, you say?

Myth is taken variously to designate imaginary phenomena, falsehoods, and traditional stories, allegories, images, and archetypes that express a people’s worldview. This image or story of a young quarterback being groomed by the team that drafted him and finding success is simply not accurate. Would Tom Brady ever been “developed” had Drew Bledsoe not been injured? Most likely it’s just like that – luck, pure and simple — unless you get the first pick of the draft and you’re smart enough to get Peyton Manning and not Ryan Leaf. You don’t stop trying, but it’s usually luck in the end. “Damn” it all.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by KCJohnny

A lot of these guys flat out STUNK in their first seasons. Aikman went 1-15!!!!

So the Cowboys made a mistake by drafting him?

My point: drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory. I would love it if we wen 1-15 next year if that is the path to a SB.

[KCJohnny]

Conventional wisdom:
Draft a U of Mich QB regardless of their stats/record.

Griese
Collins
Grbac
Brady
Harbaugh

(forgot the rest - its late... but I know there's more U Mich QBs)

[KCJohnny]

Originally Posted by cdcox

So the Cowboys made a mistake by drafting him?

My point: drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory. I would love it if we wen 1-15 next year if that is the path to a SB.

What about the Rex Grossman experiment?

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by KCJohnny

What about the Rex Grossman experiment?

My point is that drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory.

I did not say that every team that drafts a QB wins a SB. Naming QBs that did not win a SB does not provide an effective counter example.

For your counter examples you need to seek QBs that were not drafted and were not developed by the SB winning team. Your choices during the last 15 years are Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson.

My point stands that drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory.

[KCJohnny]

Originally Posted by cdcox

My point is that drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory.

I did not say that every team that drafts a QB wins a SB. Naming QBs that did not win a SB does not provide an effective counter example.

For your counter examples you need to seek QBs that were not drafted and were not developed by the SB winning team. Your choices during the last 15 years are Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson.

My point stands that drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory.

OK. Good point. Care to go back further than 15 years?

Mark Rypien?
Phil Simms?
Jeff Hostettler?
Ron Jaworski?
Craig Morton?
Earl Morall?

[Zouk]

The basic point of the column is correct.

Having the #1 overall pick in the year Manning is the virtual consensus #1 QB vs. the year in which Tim Couch is the consensus #1 QB IS luck.

Having Tom Brady fall into your lap in the 6th round after you've taken Dave Stachelski and Jeff Marriott in the 5th IS mostly luck.

[KCJohnny]

Originally Posted by Zouk

The basic point of the column is correct.

Having the #1 overall pick in the year Manning is the virtual consensus #1 QB vs. the year in which Tim Couch is the consensus #1 QB IS luck.

Having Tom Brady fall into your lap in the 6th round after you've taken Dave Stachelski and Jeff Marriott in the 5th IS mostly luck.

[cdcox]

Mark Rypien?
Phil Simms? - Drafted and developed by the Giants
Jeff Hostettler? - Simms broke his foot in mid-December in their SB year.
Ron Jaworski? - never won a SB
Craig Morton?- drafted and developed by Dallas, but never won a SB depite losing two.
Earl Morall? -

So now we are up to draft your own QB and develop him OR try to win a SB with

1) Trent Dilpher
2) Brad Johnson
3) Mark Rypien
4) Earl Morrall
5) hope your starter breaks his foot.


I'm going to stick with "Draft your own QB and develop him".

[cdcox]

As a fan, I consider having GMs and head coaches that have not started a QB that they have drafted in over 20 years to be decidedly bad luck for me.

[Zouk]

Originally Posted by cdcox

As a fan, I consider having GMs and head coaches that have not started a QB that they have drafted in over 20 years to be decidedly bad luck for me.

Congratulations, your bad luck is over!

Now pray that the guy can play.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Zouk

Congratulations, your bad luck is over!

Now pray that the guy can play.

Amen.

[KCJohnny]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Mark Rypien?
Phil Simms? - Drafted and developed by the Giants
Jeff Hostettler? - Simms broke his foot in mid-December in their SB year.
Ron Jaworski? - never won a SB
Craig Morton?- drafted and developed by Dallas, but never won a SB depite losing two.
Earl Morall? -

So now we are up to draft your own QB and develop him OR try to win a SB with

1) Trent Dilpher
2) Brad Johnson
3) Mark Rypien
4) Earl Morrall
5) hope your starter breaks his foot.


I'm going to stick with "Draft your own QB and develop him".

Rypien and Morall were big stars in their eras.

[RJ]

Originally Posted by Zouk

The basic point of the column is correct.

Having the #1 overall pick in the year Manning is the virtual consensus #1 QB vs. the year in which Tim Couch is the consensus #1 QB IS luck.

Having Tom Brady fall into your lap in the 6th round after you've taken Dave Stachelski and Jeff Marriott in the 5th IS mostly luck.

Football is a business, and as in any business a certain amount of luck is required to be successful. But its not coincidence that certain companies or people or teams get lucky more often than others. The other NFL teams had about 200 chances to be luckier than New England but they weren't.

Also, I think you sell the Patriots short to suggest they had nothing to do with Brady's success. His supporting cast and coaches surely had something to do with it.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Mark Rypien?
Phil Simms? - Drafted and developed by the Giants
Jeff Hostettler? - Simms broke his foot in mid-December in their SB year.
Ron Jaworski? - never won a SB
Craig Morton?- drafted and developed by Dallas, but never won a SB depite losing two.
Earl Morall? -

So now we are up to draft your own QB and develop him OR try to win a SB with

1) Trent Dilpher
2) Brad Johnson
3) Mark Rypien
4) Earl Morrall
5) hope your starter breaks his foot.


I'm going to stick with "Draft your own QB and develop him".

For the record, Hostettler was also drafted by the Giants.

If he wants to go old school, how about these guys?

Bart Starr
Joe Namath
Johnny Unitas
Roger Staubach
Terry Bradshaw
Kenny Stabler

[milkman]

Originally Posted by KCJohnny

Rypien and Morall were big stars in their eras.

And Rypien was a Redskin draft pick.