Jonathan Rand: What if (Matt) Ryan's there? - Page 4

shaneo69 · 04-10-2008, 04:27 PM

What if Ryan's there?
Apr 10, 2008, 2:15:51 AM by Jonathan Rand

What should the Chiefs do if Matt Ryan from Boston College, considered the standout quarterback in this draft, is sitting there when it’s time to make the fifth overall pick?

Thousands of Chiefs fans would be screaming, “Take him!” Some of these same fans, no doubt, were throwing chairs at their big screens last year as the Chiefs declined to trade up during Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn’s free fall. The Browns traded up with the Cowboys to grab Quinn at number 22 and the Chiefs, sitting chilly in the 23rd spot, took LSU wide receiver Dwayne Bowe.

Quinn, whom many fans urged the Browns to draft with the third overall pick, now backs up Derek Anderson — a sixth-round choice in 2005 who was waived by the Ravens.

Bowe enjoyed a standout rookie season. Had the Chiefs traded up, they would have lost Bowe and an extra high draft pick that they would have had to give to the Cowboys. For the Chiefs, trading up would have been a big mistake.

Drafting quarterbacks is a lot trickier than you might think. The list of first-round busts at this position is much longer than the list of first-round successes, which is bizarre when you consider how much tape, statistics and workout information is generated by quarterbacks.

But the adjustment from college football to the NFL is so dramatic that “can’t-miss” quarterbacks are few and far between. We still don’t know if JaMarcus Russell, the LSU quarterback picked first overall by the Raiders a year ago, was a wise pick.

The Chiefs need, first and foremost, a top-flight offensive tackle. But if Michigan’s Jake Long is one of the top four picks, the next-best tackle may not be a good enough athlete to justify taking with the fifth pick.

The Chiefs could then try to trade down or take the best player still available. And what if they consider Ryan to be that player?

Chiefs coach Herm Edwards attended Ryan’s campus workout, and should have an educated opinion on whether he’s a superior prospect to incumbent Brodie Croyle. Ryan, 6 feet 5 and 224, gets positive reviews for his size, arm and ability to throw on the run.

The Chiefs haven’t committed a first-round pick for a quarterback since they misfired with Penn State’s Todd Blackledge in 1983. Considering their long-term failure to develop a young passer, is it time now for them to finally take the plunge?

Even if the Chiefs could draft Ryan, they’d have to wonder who’d be blocking for him. It makes no sense to commit a high pick to a quarterback if you can’t protect him, and the Chiefs stand three starters short of a decent line. When the Browns drafted Quinn, they’d already solidified their protection by taking Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas with the third overall pick.

Houston’s David Carr was a classic case of a highly drafted quarterback who received scant protection. The first overall pick in 2002, he was sacked 249 times during his first years as a Texan. Recently released by the Panthers, it’s tough to know whether Carr ever had the tools to win in the NFL. But it’s fair to say it was hard for him to develop while staring at the sky.

If the Chiefs consider drafting Ryan, they need to be convinced he’s a “can’t-miss” prospect, project him as the opening-day starter and feel confident they can quickly rebuild their offensive line. The chances of Ryan being the real deal and getting enough protection to help the Chiefs progress this year appear remote. It would come as a surprise if they draft him.

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2008/04...f_ryans_there/

Mecca · 04-10-2008, 08:04 PM

I still don't remotely believe that Croyle will ever make it a season without missing several games.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-10-2008, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Like I just said, every single analyst would agree that the only area that Croyle can match or beat Ryan is in arm strength. That is why Ryan is a top five overall prospect and Croyle was a middle-round nobody.

Thus, if you think Croyle can do everything that Ryan can do, you must place a HUGE priority on arm strength.

Actually, almost "every single analyst" said on draft day that Croyle had 1st round talent, but that his injury history scared teams off.

Again, you sound awful confident that a guy who's never taken a NFL snap is going to be the next Peyton Manning......

Mecca · 04-10-2008, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Considering Ryan has yet to play a NFL game, I'm not sure how you can say that.

The only thing you can say with any certainty that Ryan > Croyle is injury history while in college.

Otherwise, their college stats are similar.

Ryan 60% completion percentage, Croyle 56%

Croyle 13 yards per attempt, Ryan 11.5

Croyle 1.86 TD's per INT, Ryan 1.51

Matt Ryan is no more guaranteed to be a good NFL QB than Croyle is to bust.

Crapshoot.

Let's be a little more honest though, Ryan threw the ball this past year nearly twice as many as Croyles highest year, he was relied upon alot more....

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-10-2008, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

Let's be a little more honest though, Ryan threw the ball this past year nearly twice as many as Croyles highest year, he was relied upon alot more....

I would hope so, considering Alabama has always been a run-first team.

That's why I listed averages, not totals.

The numbers don't lie.

Mecca · 04-10-2008, 08:08 PM

TD's per attempt is going to favor a guy who threw it 350 times to a guy who threw it over 600...

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-10-2008, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

TD's per attempt is going to favor a guy who threw it 350 times to a guy who threw it over 600...

I didn't list TD's per attempt.

I listed TD's per INT.

What I find comical is that there are people who were whining in TC that if Croyle played, he'd be a turnover machine.

Then he goes out and throws 6 INT's in 6 starts. Fewer INT's per game than Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and Tony Romo, among others.

Meanwhile, some of those same people are stoked about Ryan, who threw the ball all over the yard.

Toad · 04-10-2008, 08:24 PM

Hey, y'all can rest easy. Nick Athan just said that we were taking Brandon Albert with the 5th pick. Case closed....

**Buehler445** · 04-10-2008, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I didn't list TD's per attempt.

I listed TD's per INT.

What I find comical is that there are people who were whining in TC that if Croyle played, he'd be a turnover machine.

Then he goes out and throws 6 INT's in 6 starts. Fewer INT's per game than Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and Tony Romo, among others.

Meanwhile, some of those same people are stoked about Ryan, who threw the ball all over the yard.

I admit I know little about QBs and what it takes for them to succeed. However, I haven't seen anything from Ryan that says "Wow! I gotta have this kid."

I stated before last season that I was willing to give Croyle some time. I still am.

I won't be furious if they take Ryan, but I certainly don't think he's BPA at #5.

xbarretx · 04-10-2008, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

I still don't remotely believe that Croyle will ever make it a season without missing several games.

so you are FOR snagging Ryan? or jsut another QB in the 2nd or 3rd? (after ellis of course

)

eazyb81 · 04-10-2008, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Actually, almost "every single analyst" said on draft day that Croyle had 1st round talent, but that his injury history scared teams off.

Again, you sound awful confident that a guy who's never taken a NFL snap is going to be the next Peyton Manning......

Oh really? I'd love to see a link of this. If "almost every single analyst" said this, I'm sure it won't be hard.

Ryan certainly isn't a guarantee - I said earlier in this thread that no player is a guarantee to boom or bust. That said, the odds of him developing into a franchise QB are much greater than Croyle.

Would you seriously disagree with that? If so, I lose a lot of respect for your football IQ.

**pr_capone** · 04-10-2008, 11:26 PM

I know I will get torched for this but here goes.....

Screw taking Ryan in the 1st.

*IF* Long or Dorsey are not available with our pick, I honestly believe we should trade down 1sts and pick up Clady plus get another 2nd and 3rd in the process. With that we should be able to address several concerns.

I am betting that Talib's stock took a hit with getting lit up 3 times for smoking weed. We will need a replacement for Law and someone to look forward to when Surtain hits the wall this or next season. I am betting he will be available in the 2nd when we go to pick.

If Talib is gone then we still have a shot at Porter.

Last but not least.....

Also, if Colt Brennan is available when we go to pick in the 4th round.... we DAMN well better pick him up.

**BigMeatballDave** · 04-11-2008, 01:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pr_capone

Also, if Colt Brennan is available when we go to pick in the 4th round.... we DAMN well better pick him up.

No, no, no...

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-11-2008, 04:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Oh really? I'd love to see a link of this. If "almost every single analyst" said this, I'm sure it won't be hard.

Ryan certainly isn't a guarantee - I said earlier in this thread that no player is a guarantee to boom or bust. That said, the odds of him developing into a franchise QB are much greater than Croyle.

Would you seriously disagree with that? If so, I lose a lot of respect for your football IQ.

So, you want a link to a TV broadcast?

Yeah, that should be easy.

And Ryan's odds HAVE to be better, his draft slot DEMANDS it.

That still doesn't make him a Top 5 pick in my book though.

He's the one guy in this draft that I'm middle-ground on. If we pick him, fine. If we don't, fine.

King_Chief_Fan · 04-11-2008, 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Considering Ryan has yet to play a NFL game, I'm not sure how you can say that.

The only thing you can say with any certainty that Ryan > Croyle is injury history while in college.

Otherwise, their college stats are similar.

Ryan 60% completion percentage, Croyle 56%

Croyle 13 yards per attempt, Ryan 11.5

Croyle 1.86 TD's per INT, Ryan 1.51

Matt Ryan is no more guaranteed to be a good NFL QB than Croyle is to bust.

Crapshoot.

I agree they are equal....neither have won an NFL game

bringbackmarty · 04-11-2008, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I didn't list TD's per attempt.

I listed TD's per INT.

What I find comical is that there are people who were whining in TC that if Croyle played, he'd be a turnover machine.

Then he goes out and throws 6 INT's in 6 starts. Fewer INT's per game than Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and Tony Romo, among others.

Meanwhile, some of those same people are stoked about Ryan, who threw the ball all over the yard.

yeah but to be fair the o was run run pass punt. Again more throws = more int's for those guys. Croyle certainly isn't any better.

04-10-2008, 04:27 PM
shaneo69 Smug Weasel Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Bleachers at Busch Casino cash: $10004900	Jonathan Rand: What if (Matt) Ryan's there? What if Ryan's there? Apr 10, 2008, 2:15:51 AM by Jonathan Rand What should the Chiefs do if Matt Ryan from Boston College, considered the standout quarterback in this draft, is sitting there when it’s time to make the fifth overall pick? Thousands of Chiefs fans would be screaming, “Take him!” Some of these same fans, no doubt, were throwing chairs at their big screens last year as the Chiefs declined to trade up during Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn’s free fall. The Browns traded up with the Cowboys to grab Quinn at number 22 and the Chiefs, sitting chilly in the 23rd spot, took LSU wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. Quinn, whom many fans urged the Browns to draft with the third overall pick, now backs up Derek Anderson — a sixth-round choice in 2005 who was waived by the Ravens. Bowe enjoyed a standout rookie season. Had the Chiefs traded up, they would have lost Bowe and an extra high draft pick that they would have had to give to the Cowboys. For the Chiefs, trading up would have been a big mistake. Drafting quarterbacks is a lot trickier than you might think. The list of first-round busts at this position is much longer than the list of first-round successes, which is bizarre when you consider how much tape, statistics and workout information is generated by quarterbacks. But the adjustment from college football to the NFL is so dramatic that “can’t-miss” quarterbacks are few and far between. We still don’t know if JaMarcus Russell, the LSU quarterback picked first overall by the Raiders a year ago, was a wise pick. The Chiefs need, first and foremost, a top-flight offensive tackle. But if Michigan’s Jake Long is one of the top four picks, the next-best tackle may not be a good enough athlete to justify taking with the fifth pick. The Chiefs could then try to trade down or take the best player still available. And what if they consider Ryan to be that player? Chiefs coach Herm Edwards attended Ryan’s campus workout, and should have an educated opinion on whether he’s a superior prospect to incumbent Brodie Croyle. Ryan, 6 feet 5 and 224, gets positive reviews for his size, arm and ability to throw on the run. The Chiefs haven’t committed a first-round pick for a quarterback since they misfired with Penn State’s Todd Blackledge in 1983. Considering their long-term failure to develop a young passer, is it time now for them to finally take the plunge? Even if the Chiefs could draft Ryan, they’d have to wonder who’d be blocking for him. It makes no sense to commit a high pick to a quarterback if you can’t protect him, and the Chiefs stand three starters short of a decent line. When the Browns drafted Quinn, they’d already solidified their protection by taking Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas with the third overall pick. Houston’s David Carr was a classic case of a highly drafted quarterback who received scant protection. The first overall pick in 2002, he was sacked 249 times during his first years as a Texan. Recently released by the Panthers, it’s tough to know whether Carr ever had the tools to win in the NFL. But it’s fair to say it was hard for him to develop while staring at the sky. If the Chiefs consider drafting Ryan, they need to be convinced he’s a “can’t-miss” prospect, project him as the opening-day starter and feel confident they can quickly rebuild their offensive line. The chances of Ryan being the real deal and getting enough protection to help the Chiefs progress this year appear remote. It would come as a surprise if they draft him. http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2008/04...f_ryans_there/
Posts: 4,910

04-10-2008, 08:04 PM	#46
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-712950	I still don't remotely believe that Croyle will ever make it a season without missing several games.
Posts: 115,380

04-10-2008, 08:08 PM	#50
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-712950	TD's per attempt is going to favor a guy who threw it 350 times to a guy who threw it over 600...
Posts: 115,380

04-10-2008, 08:24 PM	#52
Toad Pepsi, cheeburger, chip Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Location: Location Casino cash: $-1315190	Hey, y'all can rest easy. Nick Athan just said that we were taking Brandon Albert with the 5th pick. Case closed.... __________________ Pepsi, cheeburger, chip
Posts: 1,294

04-10-2008, 11:26 PM	#56
pr_capone THREEPEAT!!! Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: NWMO Casino cash: $9948214	I know I will get torched for this but here goes..... Screw taking Ryan in the 1st. IF Long or Dorsey are not available with our pick, I honestly believe we should trade down 1sts and pick up Clady plus get another 2nd and 3rd in the process. With that we should be able to address several concerns. I am betting that Talib's stock took a hit with getting lit up 3 times for smoking weed. We will need a replacement for Law and someone to look forward to when Surtain hits the wall this or next season. I am betting he will be available in the 2nd when we go to pick. If Talib is gone then we still have a shot at Porter. Last but not least..... Also, if Colt Brennan is available when we go to pick in the 4th round.... we DAMN well better pick him up.
Posts: 19,897