Chiefs 0-16 ? Thoughts?

[cardken]

2008 AFC West Preview
Chargers are looking super; Chiefs and Raiders not so much
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
June 12th 2008
We will preview an NFL division each day for eight days, before presenting final standings, fantasy and statistical leaders, award winners, playoff results and power rankings. This analysis is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com's Fantasy Football.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 8, 2008. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.



For details on how we generate the results and the definition of the Absolute Record, click here.
To hide the details, click here.


For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Today we will preview the AFC West.

San Diego Chargers (11-5)
San Diego was our Super Bowl pick in this exercise last year and they do not look too far from it again this season. A rehabilitating quarterback and thin secondary are about the only obstacles on San Diego's path to another deep playoff run. The Chargers average 28.2 points per game (#4 in the NFL) and allow 19.4 points (#4) against a schedule featuring just four games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 13-3

Most Significant Newcomer: Jacob Hester, RB - This is not really saying much. Basically, we mention Hester as a means to talk more about the team's most significant loss, Michael Turner. Along with Darren Sproles, Hester will spell LaDainian Tomlinson. Sproles will likely get the third down looks, so the 224-pound Hester will be counted on to get tough yards. He may also get some time at fullback after Lorenzo Neal's release. Look for 250 total yards and three touchdowns.
Biggest Strength: LaDainian Tomlinson - LT can still do it all. Last season, it was a bit of a surprise that he failed to reach 2,000 total yards after 2,323 in 2006. He had 1,949 yards and 18 TDs. That's a down year? Whether it is good for his future or not, especially with Philip Rivers hobbled, the Chargers will lean on LT as much as ever.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Depth - With Michael Turner in Atlanta, the backfield is questionable after Tomlinson. The defensive backfield appears to be thin as well. San Diego will likely lean on rookies Antoine Cason and Dejuan Tribble to go with second year players Eric Weddle and Tra Battle.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Craig Davis, WR - In another reference to the lack of depth on this team, Davis may be needed if Vincent Jackson fails to produce again this season. He will likely never be a homerun threat, but Davis could be a good possession receiver who earns Rivers' respect in the redzone. At this point, we have the second-year player at 42 receptions for 469 yards and three touchdowns.

Closest Game: @ Pittsburgh (Week 11) - San Diego is an underdog in one of just three games on the schedule (vs. New England and vs. Indianapolis the others). Despite being on the road, this is definitely the most winnable of those three games. The Colts come to town the next week, so San Diego needs this game to gain confidence and momentum.

Fantasy Notables (fantasy rank at position in parentheses): Philip Rivers (12) 3,161 yards, 23 TDs, 13 INTs; LaDainian Tomlinson (1) 2,097 total yards, 18 TDs; Chris Chambers (30) 59 receptions, 882 yards, 6 TDs; Antonio Gates (3) 69 receptions, 831 yards, 6 TDs; Nate Kaeding (2) 48/48 XPs, 32/37 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Carolina Panthers 61 26-18
2 @Denver Broncos 75 29-20
3 New York Jets 64 30-18
4 @Oakland Raiders 83 28-18
5 @Miami Dolphins 85 29-18
6 New England Patriots 34 22-26
7 @Buffalo Bills 73 27-21
8 @New Orleans Saints 66 29-23
10 Kansas City Chiefs 89 33-13
11 @Pittsburgh Steelers 47 21-27
12 Indianapolis Colts 35 23-28
13 Atlanta Falcons 83 33-14
14 Oakland Raiders 86 33-15
15 @Kansas City Chiefs 95 29-13
16 @Tampa Bay Buccaneers 77 25-17
17 Denver Broncos 77 36-21





Denver Broncos (7-9)
It may not seem like much for Cardinals and Bengals fans, but three years without a playoff appearance for Mike Shanahan and Broncos is a drought. Worse yet, there are good players on this roster, but not many exciting names or potential stars. The Broncos average 24.7 points per game (#12) and allow 26.6 points (#24) against a schedule featuring five games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 7-9

Most Significant Newcomer: Boss Bailey, LB - Bailey should be able to step right in and be instantly productive alongside D.J. Williams. The wide receiver additions, Darrell Jackson, Keary Colbert, Edell Shepherd and Eddie Royal, also warrant consideration, but none have shown the consistency (at any level) needed to be singled out on this list.

Biggest Strength: Shanahan - In his 14th season leading the Broncos, Shanahan still knows a lot about football and how to build a team that can run the ball on offense and force turnovers on defense.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Lack of a star - Simulations like these take human bias out of the argument, but what is going on here can be explained in a very human way. With the possible exception of Champ Bailey, there are no stars on this team. There is not really anything to get people excited. In the sim, that translates into the fact that no player puts the team over the top. Yes, it is balanced and lacks an obvious weakness, but Denver is balanced in a very average way across the board.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Ryan Torain, RB - It could be Andre Hall, Michael Pittman or Selvin Young (if he is considered a sleeper), but we will go with a deeper sleeper here because that is how nice Mike Shanahan is to fantasy football players. Torain was a very productive back in college who ran into injury issues as a senior. With Travis Henry gone and the team lacking a go-to, all-purpose back, Torain may be the guy. In the simulated season, he nets 529 total yards and five touchdowns.

Closest Game: @ New York Jets (Week 13) - Again, this is not a tie; it's just that close. Especially with the off-season moves made by New York, Denver and the Jets are two very similar teams, who should end the season with similar records. 2008 will play a huge role in the future of both franchises, so this game that will not really have any playoff significance, could be very important.

Fantasy Notables: Jay Cutler (14) 2,988 yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs; Selvin Young (28) 1,151 total yards, 8 TDs; Andre Hall (34) 1,027 total yards, 8 TDs; Brandon Marshall (17) 67 receptions, 1,059 yards, 6 TDs; Tony Scheffler (16) 39 receptions, 474 yards, 3 TDs; Matt Prater (17) 43/43 XPs, 24/32 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Oakland Raiders 65 28-24
2 San Diego Chargers 25 20-29
3 New Orleans Saints 45 24-26
4 @Kansas City Chiefs 69 28-24
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44 25-27
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 31 24-29
7 @New England Patriots 22 19-34
9 Miami Dolphins 51 29-22
10 @Cleveland Browns 26 19-32
11 @Atlanta Falcons 66 27-23
12 Oakland Raiders 69 32-22
13 @New York Jets 54 24-24
14 Kansas City Chiefs 68 32-20
15 @Carolina Panthers 36 20-29
16 Buffalo Bills 40 23-24
17 @San Diego Chargers 23 21-36





Oakland Raiders (6-10)
For the first time in a little while, the Raiders look promising and exciting on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately for the Black Hole, that will not yet translate on the field. Still, with a pretty weak schedule, the young players on this team may gain the confidence they need to become stars in the future. The Raiders average 22.8 points per game (#18) and allow 27.3 points (#27) against a schedule featuring just four games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 4-12

Most Significant Newcomer: DeAngelo Hall, CB - Darren McFadden is the sexiest choice here, but Hall cannot be ignored. He is close to a shutdown corner who can still make plays. Plus, with defenses shying away from his side, watch for Nnamdi Asomugha to approach, if not exceed, his interception total of 2006 (8).

Biggest Strength: Intercepting - Not only do the Raiders have Hall and Asomugha, they have two of the best pass defending linebackers in Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard. That tandem combined for a remarkable ten interceptions in 2007. And we have not even mentioned Gibril Wilson, who led the Super Bowl champion Giants in interceptions with four. Opposing quarterbacks could be in trouble against the Raiders. Fans in the first few rows should expect a few passes.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Being Intercepted - JaMarcus Russell made his share of mistakes in limited play as a rookie. That will likely continue for at least another season in Oakland. The simulated season has Oakland intercepting 23 passes, but throwing 22.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Drew Carter, WR - Some may look at our numbers and put tight end Zach Miller here. We think so highly of him, it's hard to call him a sleeper. So, we went for the number three wideout, Drew Carter. Al Davis loves deep threats and Carter can be that guy. Ronald Curry is the possession receiver and Javon Walker is an injury waiting to happen, so Carter should get an opportunity to shine. We have the former Buckeye at 28 catches for 509 yards and three touchdowns.

Closest Game: @ New Orleans (Week 6) - It is feast of famine for Oakland who is only between a 40%-60% favorite in one game all year (that is almost unheard of in the NFL). The Saints are still favored by nine points, but the Raiders will have the bye week to prepare for the trip to New Orleans so they may just get out of there with a victory.

Fantasy Notables: JaMarcus Russell (25) 2,806 yards, 19 TDs, 18 INTs; Justin Fargas (23) 1,330 yards, 11 TDs; Darren McFadden (27) 1,113 total yards, 10 TDs; Javon Walker (36) 46 receptions, 815 yards, 5 TDs; Zach Miller (7) 58 receptions, 660 yards, 4 TDs; Sebastian Janikowski (27) 41/41 XPs, 22/34 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Denver Broncos 35 24-28
2 @Kansas City Chiefs 62 26-23
3 @Buffalo Bills 29 19-29
4 San Diego Chargers 16 18-28
6 @New Orleans Saints 43 22-31
7 New York Jets 40 23-25
8 @Baltimore Ravens 33 19-29
9 Atlanta Falcons 70 34-22
10 Carolina Panthers 16 18-28
11 @Miami Dolphins 79 31-23
12 @Denver Broncos 31 22-32
13 Kansas City Chiefs 67 30-19
14 @San Diego Chargers 14 15-33
15 New England Patriots 22 25-34
16 Houston Texans 36 22-27
17 @Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 19-27





Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
It would be great to talk optimistically about a fairly easy schedule for the Chiefs, but that is tough to do when they are not favored by more than 40% in any game. When a team has to get a little lucky at least once just to get on the board, it is going to be a tough year - talk to the Dolphins. But, this is part of the plan to go young and develop players this season in hopes of contending in the near future. The Chiefs average 18.0 points per game (#32) and allow 29.4 points (#32) against a schedule featuring five games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 0-16

Most Significant Newcomer: Glenn Dorsey, DT - It is very difficult for a defensive tackle to make a profound impact on a defense in his rookie season. Dorsey will, partly because he has to and partly because he has NFL-ready athleticism and drive. The sim likes Dorsey to rack up 28 tackles and five sacks. Other draft picks like Branden Albert, Brandon Flowers and DaJuan Morgan should get the playing time needed to make a difference on this team as well.

Biggest Strength: Youth - Young players can oftentimes luck into wins before they really know what they are doing in the league. With a roster full of players 26 years old and younger and 12 newly drafted rookies, Kansas City has plenty of youth. Speed and agility tend to come with youth as well. Kansas City may actually be one of the faster teams in the league position-by-position.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Experience - It may be a little too obvious, but that youth is also the same reason that this team is a few years away from a chance at success. Remember when this team had the best offensive line in the league and too many running backs?

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Tyler Thigpen, QB - Brodie Croyle will be given plenty of opportunity to make this his team, but it may not work. If it doesn't, or if Croyle endures another major injury, Thigpen is next in line. Physically, the Coastal Carolina product is the prototype: 6'3", 220 pounds with great mobility and a big arm. Like the rest of this team, he just lacks experience. He may get his shot this year. We have him starting four games and throwing for 738 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions.

Closest Game: New York Jets (Week 8) - This is the Chiefs' Miami vs. Baltimore moment. Brodie Croyle to Dwayne Bowe may be better than Cleo Lemon to Greg Camarillo, but that may have to be the difference against a porous Jets' secondary.

Fantasy Notables: Brodie Croyle (27) 2,572 yards, 16 TDs, 12 INTs; Larry Johnson (12) 1,682 total yards, 11 TDs; Dwayne Bowe (16) 72 receptions, 1,102 yards, 7 TDs; Tony Gonzalez (4) 71 receptions, 857 yards, 5 TDs; Billy Cundiff (32) 31/32 XPs, 21/26 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:

[chiefs1111]

I don't know about 0-16,it seems like we would at least get lucky during some point and pul one out,likely against the Raiders........... I think we will be at least 3-13

[CoMoChief]

If we go 0-16 theres just nothing more I could say or do, than to just LMFAO at this joke of a coaching staff.

Herm and Carl BOTH should get canned for that. No excuses to lose EVERY game.

[chasedude]

All this speculation and NO ONE knows for sure what will happen. Unless they've invented the time machine and went forward to see the turnout of the season.

[dshyne101]

Forget that Larry and D.Bowe wont let that happen!!

[Hootie]

I think we'll win at least 7 games...our defense is going to be good.

[ChiefGator]

Hmm... I have the Chiefs beating the Falcons in Atlanta. And I'll be there for it!

[RustShack]

I think they ment to put 16-0.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by Hootie

I think we'll win at least 7 games...our defense is going to be good.

Ditto.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by cardken

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Tyler Thigpen,

[Pneuma]

No way we can't get at least 3 W's this season with our easy schedule.

[007]

I'm all for it if it gets Carl canned.

[CoMoChief]

Originally Posted by Hootie

I think we'll win at least 7 games...our defense is going to be good.

And Huard will lead us to the playoffs.

Our pass rush is gonna be a big liability on defense. Especially with the young CBs, we may have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL because of that.

Sure we have potential and talent with the young corners, but they will also become a liability since they are greatly inexperienced.

[FAX]

Originally Posted by Hootie

I think we'll win at least 7 games...our defense is going to be good.

I don't see it, Mr. Hootie. We've lost our best defensive player. Dorsey is a DT and, unless our DEs step it up, he's going to spend the season triple teamed and tired as hell. Our corners may well be rookies and our linebackers remain a question mark. On top of all that, our defense is probably more complex than our offense at this point. This does not bode well, I think.

FAX

[FAX]

Our success this year hinges upon our running game. If we don't have one, we are doomed.

FAX