My analysis of Scott Pioli and his Interview

[Amnorix]

I just watched the full interview on KCChiefs.com where Pioli was introduced. As a close Patriots' watcher and expert (well moreso than you guys, for now anyway) in the ways of the Patriots and Mr. Pioli, I saw several things that were very interesting and figured I'd share them. I see everyone is creating separate threads on Pioli, so this is legit I guess.

First, I think Herm is likely gone. I strongly suspect that one reason for the delay in announcing Scott (I'll suggest another below) is the status of Herm Edwards.

Scott praised Herm, but when asked to give his assessment of his strengths as a coach, all he could come up with is that he liked him personally and that his players played hard for him. While that's clearly important, he didn't say ALOT of the buzzwords that I would expect him to say if he were giving a coach high praise.

I noted, correctly, in a prior thread that you could expect to hear Pioli say that he would build a "big, strong, tough, smart, disciplined" football team. None of those buzzwords came through. The phrases Belichick uses to praise the coaches he highly respects, such as Shanarat, were not used.

Then Clark Hunt went on to say that Scott would basically investigate and then report to him with a recommendation. What I strongly suspect is that Clark didn't want to fire HErm, but wants to keep him. Maybe because he feels a sense of obligation to him for handing him such a young roster, or perhaps just to save the $4MM. But what Scott and Hunt agreed on was that Scott would "give him a chance" -- i.e. have discussions iwth him and get to know the players/personnel better to make a better assessment, from the inside as it were, of Herm, and then recommend to Clark whether he will be kept or discharged.

I strongly suspect Herm will be gone in about 2 weeks.


Second, the last exchange, at the very end of the interview, was very telling. The reporter asked if Scott had to CLEAR trades, etc. with Clark. Scott's answer was that Clark will be INFORMED of everything that happens, before it happens. He also used a few other phrases that make it clear that Scott has complete control over all football operations.

That may well have been another sticking point that slowed this process down -- discussions over the degree of control Scott would have. He obviously wants what Parcells and Belichick always wanted -- complete control.

Other than that, I would recommend that any Chiefs fan on here watch the video. It explains that "Patriots' Way", and the modus operandi for the Chiefs going forward.

He also references some of the unique challenges the Chiefs present compared ot the Patriots team that won a SB two years after BB/SP arrived. The roster is much younger here now, and there is no veteran core of players, nor a recent tradition of winning. In some ways, his job is harder here than they had with the Patriots. However, there is plenty of cap room which wasn't the case in NE. The problem, however, is that everyone in the NFL (practically) has plenty of cap room these days, so it may not be that much of a competitive advantage.

[Buehler445]

Thanks for the thoughts Amnorix. Much appreciated.

[Deberg_1990]

Amnorix,

Do you think Pioli will tak a Qb at #3?

The Pats never took one high, but never had a pick that high nor really had a need.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Yes, it will. Definitely. Players that are overpaid compared to performance usually get asked to trim things.

The Belichick appraoch is an economic one. Cost/benefit analysis goes into EVERY decision. Which players to keep, which to cut, which draft picks make the most sense, etc. etc. Little known is that Belichick was an economist major in college.

But, if Pioli thinks he's worth $8MM, which is about 6 or 7% or so of the current cap number, right, then that might not be a bone of contention. The other relevant question is what is the cap hit to cut him, based on acceleration of the signing bonus?

It's 8m either way I believe.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Claythan

It's 8m either way I believe.

Possible, but a bit surprising.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

Amnorix,

Do you think Pioli will tak a Qb at #3?

The Pats never took one high, but never had a pick that high nor really had a need.

They never had a need.

If he thought the next Brady or Manning was there, of course he would. Parcells took Bledsoe at #1, and Pennington at #16 or whatever it was. They're not shy about drafting QBs high or anything.

I'll put up a separate post about drafting philosophy.

[greyhoodie]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

So you think Scott can/will determine what he wants to do based on who MIGHT be available next year. That's insane, IMHO. How the heck does he know for certain who is available next year?

Obviously he doesn't know exactly who will be available next year. But what he is NOT going to do is fire Herm and replace him with someone who he doesn't feel is the right fit. And then be stuck at the end of next season with the problem of needing to fire him to get a guy he really wants. If the perfect candidate is not available he will "push" one year.

[Amnorix]

Here's how the Patriots run their draft, generally.

1. they compile the usual, ridiculous list of all players coming out of college. They then SEVERELY whittle it down. Every player that doesn't fit their system gets kicked out, REGARDLESS of talent. They just ignore players that don't fit their system -- whether because they're a bad fit (that 285 lb DE that is too small for DE and too big/slow for OLB or whatever). It's my understanding that the Patriots "board" is much smaller than the average team.

2. Everyone left is graded. A point value is given.

3. Then they're sorted by grades.

4. Then adjustments are made and players are ranked based on team need and other factors. A CB and a OL might both have a hypothetical value of 6.8, but if we need CBs more than OLs, then the CB gets the higher ranking.

What is left is the draft board for the Patriots. It's VERY team specific. Player X, who was great at DE at College ABC, but projects at OLB for the Patriots, is graded AT OLB. They do not give a crap how good a DE he was. If they have serious concerns about him dropping back to cover, then he will get a lower grade. They do not give a rat's ass how he might do for some other team.

They obviously have some kind of system for figuring out what other team's needs/desires/draft history is, because that is important in trackign what other teams might do on draft day. They have moved up before to steal players that they thought might go very soon to a team one or two spots behind where they move up to.

On draft day, if the team has a number of players with very close grades left, and someone offers them a pick if they slide back a few slots, then they move back and say "well, out of all these 6.7 and 6.8 grades, we'll get one of them, and they're so even ti hardly matters."

If one guy is head and shoulders above the rest, and within a "few" ("few" being relative by round -- moving up 3 picks in the first half of the first orund might be more expensive than moving up by 10 picks in the third round) picks, then that guy is "sliding", according to their board. If they're worried another team might pick him up, then they will trade up to grab him, because he's much more valuable than whoever will be left at their original pick once it comes to them.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by greyhoodie

Obviously he doesn't know exactly who will be available next year. But what he is NOT going to do is fire Herm and replace him with someone who he doesn't feel is the right fit. And then be stuck at the end of next season with the problem of needing to fire him to get a guy he really wants. If the perfect candidate is not available he will "push" one year.

Well, I agree he wont' fire him if he doesn't feel he can likely get a good fit. But that's sort of obvious, yes?

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by Claythan

It's 8m either way I believe.

I read on here that it was 8.6.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Here's how the Patriots run their draft, generally.

1. they compile the usual, ridiculous list of all players coming out of college. They then SEVERELY whittle it down. Every player that doesn't fit their system gets kicked out, REGARDLESS of talent. They just ignore players that don't fit their system -- whether because they're a bad fit (that 285 lb DE that is too small for DE and too big/slow for OLB or whatever). It's my understanding that the Patriots "board" is much smaller than the average team.

2. Everyone left is graded. A point value is given.

3. Then they're sorted by grades.

4. Then adjustments are made and players are ranked based on team need and other factors. A CB and a OL might both have a hypothetical value of 6.8, but if we need CBs more than OLs, then the CB gets the higher ranking.

What is left is the draft board for the Patriots. It's VERY team specific. Player X, who was great at DE at College ABC, but projects at OLB for the Patriots, is graded AT OLB. They do not give a crap how good a DE he was. If they have serious concerns about him dropping back to cover, then he will get a lower grade. They do not give a rat's ass how he might do for some other team.

They obviously have some kind of system for figuring out what other team's needs/desires/draft history is, because that is important in trackign what other teams might do on draft day. They have moved up before to steal players that they thought might go very soon to a team one or two spots behind where they move up to.

On draft day, if the team has a number of players with very close grades left, and someone offers them a pick if they slide back a few slots, then they move back and say "well, out of all these 6.7 and 6.8 grades, we'll get one of them, and they're so even ti hardly matters."

If one guy is head and shoulders above the rest, and within a "few" ("few" being relative by round -- moving up 3 picks in the first half of the first orund might be more expensive than moving up by 10 picks in the third round) picks, then that guy is "sliding", according to their board. If they're worried another team might pick him up, then they will trade up to grab him, because he's much more valuable than whoever will be left at their original pick once it comes to them.

You're much closer to the situation, but that is pretty much spot on with what I've read about how they handle it.

One thing I liked in Patriots Reign, was the comment that before the draft BB/SP make a small list, 10-20 players that they WANT to be Patriots. Then they do whatever they can, provided it makes sense, to draft those players.

Regarding Tom Brady, he wasn't really a lucky pick, only in the sense that the Patriots didn't think he'd be there at #199. They were prepared to take Tim Rattay in the 6th or 7th, because they figured someone would jump on Brady earlier, and they had other players they ranked above Brady - plus they had Bledsoe.

I can't remember who made the comment in the book, BB or SP, but they knew that Brady would be their starter within a year or two.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Here's how the Patriots run their draft, generally.

1. they compile the usual, ridiculous list of all players coming out of college. They then SEVERELY whittle it down. Every player that doesn't fit their system gets kicked out, REGARDLESS of talent. They just ignore players that don't fit their system -- whether because they're a bad fit (that 285 lb DE that is too small for DE and too big/slow for OLB or whatever). It's my understanding that the Patriots "board" is much smaller than the average team.

2. Everyone left is graded. A point value is given.

3. Then they're sorted by grades.

4. Then adjustments are made and players are ranked based on team need and other factors. A CB and a OL might both have a hypothetical value of 6.8, but if we need CBs more than OLs, then the CB gets the higher ranking.

What is left is the draft board for the Patriots. It's VERY team specific. Player X, who was great at DE at College ABC, but projects at OLB for the Patriots, is graded AT OLB. They do not give a crap how good a DE he was. If they have serious concerns about him dropping back to cover, then he will get a lower grade. They do not give a rat's ass how he might do for some other team.

They obviously have some kind of system for figuring out what other team's needs/desires/draft history is, because that is important in trackign what other teams might do on draft day. They have moved up before to steal players that they thought might go very soon to a team one or two spots behind where they move up to.

On draft day, if the team has a number of players with very close grades left, and someone offers them a pick if they slide back a few slots, then they move back and say "well, out of all these 6.7 and 6.8 grades, we'll get one of them, and they're so even ti hardly matters."

If one guy is head and shoulders above the rest, and within a "few" ("few" being relative by round -- moving up 3 picks in the first half of the first orund might be more expensive than moving up by 10 picks in the third round) picks, then that guy is "sliding", according to their board. If they're worried another team might pick him up, then they will trade up to grab him, because he's much more valuable than whoever will be left at their original pick once it comes to them.

Sounds like there's gonna be a ton of people bitching on this board...

...only this time we select Richard Seymour instead of Bernard ****ing Pollard...

...FYI I don't know if you guys were bitching about Seymour, just throwing a name out there.

[catfish307]

Herm will stay this year because Cowher isn't going to go back to coaching until next year. So I don't see KC firing Herm and hiring a new coach for this year, then letting him go after 1 season to hire Cowher. Cowher will then come to KC and be the new HC and we will all be happy.

I visioned this in my bowl of frosted flakes this morning.

[greyhoodie]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Well, I agree he wont' fire him if he doesn't feel he can likely get a good fit. But that's sort of obvious, yes?

No that isn't obvious.

The Jets fired Mangini without figuring out who his replacement would be. I am saying Scott isn't firing Herm unless he has a replacement in mind that is the perfect fit.

[greyhoodie]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Here's how the Patriots run their draft, generally.

1. they compile the usual, ridiculous list of all players coming out of college. They then SEVERELY whittle it down. Every player that doesn't fit their system gets kicked out, REGARDLESS of talent. They just ignore players that don't fit their system -- whether because they're a bad fit (that 285 lb DE that is too small for DE and too big/slow for OLB or whatever). It's my understanding that the Patriots "board" is much smaller than the average team.

2. Everyone left is graded. A point value is given.

3. Then they're sorted by grades.

4. Then adjustments are made and players are ranked based on team need and other factors. A CB and a OL might both have a hypothetical value of 6.8, but if we need CBs more than OLs, then the CB gets the higher ranking.

What is left is the draft board for the Patriots. It's VERY team specific. Player X, who was great at DE at College ABC, but projects at OLB for the Patriots, is graded AT OLB. They do not give a crap how good a DE he was. If they have serious concerns about him dropping back to cover, then he will get a lower grade. They do not give a rat's ass how he might do for some other team.

They obviously have some kind of system for figuring out what other team's needs/desires/draft history is, because that is important in trackign what other teams might do on draft day. They have moved up before to steal players that they thought might go very soon to a team one or two spots behind where they move up to.

On draft day, if the team has a number of players with very close grades left, and someone offers them a pick if they slide back a few slots, then they move back and say "well, out of all these 6.7 and 6.8 grades, we'll get one of them, and they're so even ti hardly matters."

If one guy is head and shoulders above the rest, and within a "few" ("few" being relative by round -- moving up 3 picks in the first half of the first orund might be more expensive than moving up by 10 picks in the third round) picks, then that guy is "sliding", according to their board. If they're worried another team might pick him up, then they will trade up to grab him, because he's much more valuable than whoever will be left at their original pick once it comes to them.

I think you left out a lot. As I understand it the Patriots also do an analysis of all current players and compare every draftee to who they would cut/bench to make room for him. While the Patriots don't draft "on need" the score assigned to a nose tackle would be based largely on how he compares to Wilfork and Smith. As Smith would almost certainly be cut to make room for a new nose tackle.

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I'm not sure they'll have a replacement HC ready to go when the axe falls on Herm. Maybe, but I dont' think it's strictly necessary.

I watched it this morning, and that last exchange you mentioned kind of bothered me.

Your take will hopefully shed some light.

It left me feeling like Clark is carrying a heavy hand over Scott, and Scott needs to get approval on everything. He actually said that, that Clark would know everything and be involved before anything was done. In fact, Scott kept looking over to Clark for approval signals on things he was saying.

Scott is the expert here, not Clark, Clark just has the money. Lamar sure never operated that way.