Top 5 Pick Success Rate

[DaKCMan AP]

Originally Posted by MIAdragon

I dont disagree but the numbers dont lie. There will always be exceptions’ I just hope we make the correct call no matter what it is.

This is just a snapshot and isn't enough info to make any claims. You're looking at success rate without looking at value. OG had the highest success rate - but you can get an OG later in the draft and still have a pretty good success rate. However, when you look at other positions like QB, DT, etc. the success rate drops off much more. Therefore, while an OG might be the 'safer' pick it is not a good value pick because you can get one later. Whereas a QB might have a lower top-5 success rate - the rate in lower rounds gets lower and lower and lower.

[MIAdragon]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

This is just a snapshot and isn't enough info to make any claims. You're looking at success rate without looking at value. OG had the highest success rate - but you can get an OG later in the draft and still have a pretty good success rate. However, when you look at other positions like QB, DT, etc. the success rate drops off much more. Therefore, while an OG might be the 'safer' pick it is not a good value pick because you can get one later. Whereas a QB might have a lower top-5 success rate - the rate in lower rounds gets lower and lower and lower.

Very true, it is just a snapshot and I doubt the author intended it to be used as a guide for teams on how and when to draft.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

This is just a snapshot and isn't enough info to make any claims. You're looking at success rate without looking at value. OG had the highest success rate - but you can get an OG later in the draft and still have a pretty good success rate. However, when you look at other positions like QB, DT, etc. the success rate drops off much more. Therefore, while an OG might be the 'safer' pick it is not a good value pick because you can get one later. Whereas a QB might have a lower top-5 success rate - the rate in lower rounds gets lower and lower and lower.

Basically elite skill position players will always have a larger boom or bust ratio. Thats why they are valued.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

This is just a snapshot and isn't enough info to make any claims. You're looking at success rate without looking at value. OG had the highest success rate - but you can get an OG later in the draft and still have a pretty good success rate. However, when you look at other positions like QB, DT, etc. the success rate drops off much more. Therefore, while an OG might be the 'safer' pick it is not a good value pick because you can get one later. Whereas a QB might have a lower top-5 success rate - the rate in lower rounds gets lower and lower and lower.

Oh, for crying out loud.... What this shows is that, despite the inane bleatings of Mecca and company on this issue, quarterback is the most likely position to be a wasted pick if the player is taken in the top 5. It doesn't mean that no QB taken in the top 5 will ever pan out. The asinine notion that people are "scared" because they don't want to piss away a top 5 pick on a QB that they don't think will succeed against the odds is just taking hit after hit.

As for value, what the hell is the 'value' of failure? What's the longterm value of drafting Ryan Leaf?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Oh, for crying out loud.... What this shows is that, despite the inane bleatings of Mecca and company on this issue, quarterback is the most likely position to be a wasted pick if the player is taken in the top 5. It doesn't mean that no QB taken in the top 5 will ever pan out. The asinine notion that people are "scared" because they don't want to piss away a top 5 pick on a QB that they don't think will succeed against the odds is just taking hit after hit.

As for value, what the hell is the 'value' of failure? What's the longterm value of drafting Ryan Leaf?

It is not surprising whatsoever that the logic of that post was completely lost on you.

You wonder why I say you're afraid to pick a QB, and you launch in to diatribes like this.

We had a poll in the draft forum a week or so ago. Potential percentiles were assigned for each position, 98, 90, and 80, meaning that a QB with an 80 would have the potential to be better than 4/5 of the league.

Every person who voted picked 3 "players".

Who are you picking in that case, and why?

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=202444

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It is not surprising whatsoever that the logic of that post was completely lost on you.

More irony from you.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You wonder why I say you're afraid to pick a QB, and you launch in to diatribes like this.

I don't wonder why you say I'm afraid to pick a QB. I could care less why you say it. Having seen the depth of your football knowledge, your seal of approval is nowhere on my list of desired things.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

We had a poll in the draft forum a week or so ago. Potential percentiles were assigned for each position, 98, 90, and 80, meaning that a QB with an 80 would have the potential to be better than 4/5 of the league.

Every person who voted picked 3 "players".

Who are you picking in that case, and why?

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=202444

Couldn't care less, and I'm not going to let you sidetrack the issue. Despite your claim, I fully understood the 'logic' of DaKCMan AP's post. It's just piss poor logic. You know... your specialty. Again, what was the long-term value of the Ryan Leaf pick?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

More irony from you.



I don't wonder why you say I'm afraid to pick a QB. I could care less why you say it. Having seen the depth of your football knowledge, your seal of approval is nowhere on my list of desired things.



Couldn't care less, and I'm not going to let you sidetrack the issue. Despite your claim, I fully understood the 'logic' of DaKCMan AP's post. It's just piss poor logic. You know... your specialty.

You do an excellent job of nailing yourself to the cross without ever taking a stand on any issue.

You're like a jaded woman. You bitch just to bitch. You don't offer any kind of analysis, you just rag ass all the time.

And regarding my football knowledge, I guaran****ingtee that the overwhelming majority of posters on this board would take mine over yours.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You do an excellent job of nailing yourself to the cross without ever taking a stand on any issue.

You're like a jaded woman. You bitch just to bitch. You don't offer any kind of analysis, you just rag ass all the time.

And regarding my football knowledge, I guaran****ingtee that the overwhelming majority of posters on this board would take mine over yours.

Oh.....make that a poll.

PhilFree

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by philfree

Oh.....make that a poll.

PhilFree

I'm not cluttering up the board with yet another stupid ****ing thread. If someone else wants to do it, fine.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You do an excellent job of nailing yourself to the cross without ever taking a stand on any issue.

You're like a jaded woman. You bitch just to bitch. You don't offer any kind of analysis, you just rag ass all the time.

And regarding my football knowledge, I guaran****ingtee that the overwhelming majority of posters on this board would take mine over yours.

Your football knowledge isn't quite nonexistent, but my dog probably knows more than you've shown in the past month or so. And the irony of you claiming that I "rag ass" all the time was yet another fun little tidbit in your post.

Do you even realize what an idiot you make yourself out to be?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Your football knowledge isn't quite nonexistent, but my dog probably knows more than you've shown in the past month or so. And the irony of you claiming that I "rag ass" all the time was yet another fun little tidbit in your post.

Do you even realize what an idiot you make yourself out to be?

Again, a passing of the buck.

You think that we're new to this tactic here?

It's called deflection, and it's all you ever do.

You don't say why you oppose one of these players. You offer no substantive reason why they may not succeed, you merely make a series of claims with absolutely no evidence to support them.

There may well be evidence to make such an argument, but without it, your argumentative style is the equivalent of a vagrant shouting from a milk crate.

Here's a simple lesson that was obviously never taught to you

Claim+evidence-counterargument+refutation=Argument

All you do right now is make claims. Hell, even that is a bit of a stretch.

[Rigodan]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Your football knowledge isn't quite nonexistent, but my dog probably knows more than you've shown in the past month or so. And the irony of you claiming that I "rag ass" all the time was yet another fun little tidbit in your post.

Do you even realize what an idiot you make yourself out to be?

I'm staring to think this is Pioli zombie's duplicate account.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Again, what was the long-term value of the Ryan Leaf pick?

Well, considering he was drafted in 1998 and they were back in the playoffs by 2004, I don't think it set them back too bad. Plus they got LT out of the deal.

The Chargers have won 3 playoff games since drafting Ryan Leaf #2 overall. We've won 3 playoff games since drafting NEIL SMITH #2 overall.

Let me rephrase that - what was the long-term value of the Ryan Sims pick?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Well, considering he was drafted in 1998 and they were back in the playoffs by 2004, I don't think it set them back too bad. Plus they got LT out of the deal.

The Chargers have won 3 playoff games since drafting Ryan Leaf #2 overall. We've won 3 playoff games since drafting NEIL SMITH #2 overall.

Let me rephrase that - what was the long-term value of the Ryan Sims pick?

HOLY SHIT.

HE AROSE

HE AROSE

THANK HEAVEN CHRIST AROSE

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Well, considering he was drafted in 1998 and they were back in the playoffs by 2004, I don't think it set them back too bad. Plus they got LT out of the deal.

The long-term value of the Leaf pick was a negative. He was a complete bust and he cost on the cap. Why is it so difficult for people on this forum to just admit obvious truths?

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The Chargers have won 3 playoff games since drafting Ryan Leaf #2 overall. We've won 3 playoff games since drafting NEIL SMITH #2 overall.

This is nothing but a red herring, as you must know.

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Let me rephrase that - what was the long-term value of the Ryan Sims pick?

For the Chiefs? Effectively, somewhere near zero. What does pissing away a #6 pick in 2002 have to do with people not wanting to piss away the #3 (those that think Sanchez/Stafford will be a bad choice) pick in 2009? Has anyone argued that there's a position with a 100% success rate?