NFL Draft New Updated Mock - Page 4

journeyscarab · 03-23-2009, 12:10 PM

1.Detroit Lions: Jason Smith OT Baylor
2.St.Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
3.San Francisco 49ers

From KC): Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
4.Seattle Seahawks: Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio St
5.Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas
6.Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech
7.Oakland Raiders: Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech
8.Jacksonville Jaguars: Mark Sanchez QB USC
9.Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji DT Boston College
10.Kansas City Cheifs(From SF):Everette Brown DE Florida St
11.Buffalo Bills: Brian Cushing LB USC
12.Denver Broncos: Josh Freeman QB Kansas State
13.Washington Redskins: Andre Smith OT Alabama
14.New Orleans Saints: Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
15.Houston Texans: Clay Matthews LB USC
16.San Diego Chargers: Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
17.New York Jets: Jeremy Maclin WR Mizzou
18.Chicago Bears: Eben Britton OT Arizona
19.Tampa Bay Buccaneers:Chris Wells RB Ohio St
20.Detroit Lions: Tyson Jackson DE LSU
21.Philadelphia Eagles: Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
22.Minnesota Vikings: Vontae Davis CB Illinois
23.New England Patriots: Rey Maualuga LB USC
24.Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew TE Okie St.
25.Miami Dolphins: Darius Butler CB Uconn
26.Baltimore Ravens: Percy Harvin WR Florida
27.Inidanapolis Colts: Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss
28.Philadelphia Eagles: William Beatty OT Uconn
29.New York Giants: Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
30.Tennessee Titans: Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
31.Arizona Cardinals: Donald Brown RB Uconn
32.Pittsburgh Steelers: D.J. Moore CB Vandy

Chief's get 2nd rd pick from SF and other disclosed picks Chiefs select Connor Barwin with 2nd rd pick

**DaneMcCloud** · 03-23-2009, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdeg

Put on the brakes, here.

We're not going to get into this again, but the discussion was about impact pass rushers. Meaning both.

If it had been about DE's it would've been an irrelevant point to bring up in the first place.

In all honesty, I think we were talking about two different things and neither of us realized it.

I kept mentioning defensive ends like Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Neil Smith, Bruce Smith, etc. You mentioned Joey Porter, Lamar Woodley, etc.

IMO, an impact pass rusher is a player like I mentioned. Those guys could go anywhere, play on any defense and be unstoppable. I don't think the same could be said for guys like Woodley, Tuck, etc. Those guys are dependent on the scheme and the players around them

bdeg · 03-23-2009, 02:05 PM

We were definitely both being obtuse, but I think it's still possible to get lucky and find a game-changer later on.

**DaneMcCloud** · 03-23-2009, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

He weighed 245lbs and put on weight and posted a poor time...teams questioned what his real position was.

Well, I'd say only a couple of teams questioned that (and were wrong) because there were some pretty good players that went ahead of him at #10.

Carson Palmer, Jordan Gross, Andre Johnson and Kevin Williams. I'm sure that Detroit (Charles Rogers), NYJ (Dewayne Robertson), Jax (Byron Leftwich) and N.O. (Jonathan Sullivan) wish they hadn't questioned his abilities.

I swear, sometimes these teams just over-think this stuff. This shit isn't a science.

**DaneMcCloud** · 03-23-2009, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdeg

We were definitely both being obtuse, but I think it's still possible to get lucky and find a game-changer later on.

Oh, of course I agree. But the key word there is "luck".

I happened to the Chiefs once in 45 years. Those aren't good odds.

Amnorix · 03-23-2009, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

**** yeah. Or Unger.

Personally, I HATE Brown at Ten.

I've yet to hear a convincing argument that Brown will be Terrell Suggs.

Because that's exactly the type of production you'd expect at #10.

You overrate draft picks, I think, if you think everybody at 10 or higher is the next Terrell Suggs.

Amnorix · 03-23-2009, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Hell yeah! But that would never happen.

Right, so by definition, #10 isn't worth a Suggs, and you can't "expect" that type of production.

**DaneMcCloud** · 03-23-2009, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

You overrate draft picks, I think, if you think everybody at 10 or higher is the next Terrell Suggs.

No, I don't.

DeMarcus Ware & Merriman were both #12 overall. Suggs was #10. There is relative value to my expectation.

**DaneMcCloud** · 03-23-2009, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Right, so by definition, #10 isn't worth a Suggs, and you can't "expect" that type of production.

I can and do expect it.

The reason why I think it would never happen is because I seriously doubt that Baltimore would part with Suggs, especially when there isn't a suitable, younger replacement at #10.

Amnorix · 03-23-2009, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

No, I don't.

DeMarcus Ware & Merriman were both #12 overall. Suggs was #10. There is relative value to my expectation.

I'm not saying it's impossible to get an impact pass-rusher in the 10-12 range. Obviously not.

But for every Ware or Merriman or Suggs you can cite, I'm sure with minimal effort I can find the next stud pass rusher who struck out. BC's Mike Mamula comes to mind.

Besides, by definition you've already admitted that Suggs is worth more than a #10 pick.

Amnorix · 03-23-2009, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I can and do expect it.

The reason why I think it would never happen is because I seriously doubt that Baltimore would part with Suggs, especially when there isn't a suitable, younger replacement at #10.

Then you'd be a completely inappropriate candidate for a front office job.

You don't value picks based on the BEST POSSIBLE outcome. It makes no sense. You ignore risk. You pretend that a top ten pick should be a home run. That's absurd.

It's fine to HOPE for the best, but you can't EXPECT it and make it your value calculation.

Amnorix · 03-23-2009, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

No, I don't.

DeMarcus Ware & Merriman were both #12 overall. Suggs was #10. There is relative value to my expectation.

Tom Brady was the 199th pick overall. I therefore expect that the 199th pick overall to be a future Hall of Fame player. I have relative value to my expectation.

see -- it doesn't work. I know a one time thing is a statistical anomaly, whereas you have listed 3 good examples for your position. Heck, Dwight Freeney would be a 4th example. But still, you can't value picks based on the best possible outcome. You have to discount it for risk of a bad pick for whatever reason.

**DaneMcCloud** · 03-23-2009, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I'm not saying it's impossible to get an impact pass-rusher in the 10-12 range. Obviously not.

But for every Ware or Merriman or Suggs you can cite, I'm sure with minimal effort I can find the next stud pass rusher who struck out. BC's Mike Mamula comes to mind.

Besides, by definition you've already admitted that Suggs is worth more than a #10 pick.

The Mamula incident happened more than a decade ago. If you take a look at the top 15 of each draft this decade, the scouts have been right far more often than wrong in regards to a pass rushing DE or OLB. A few have slipped but with good reason (Tuck, Allen, etc.).

Suggs may be worth more than the #10 in this year's draft but I doubt anyone would pay more than that.

Amnorix · 03-23-2009, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

The Mamula incident happened more than a decade ago. If you take a look at the top 15 of each draft this decade, the scouts have been right far more often than wrong in regards to a pass rushing DE or OLB. A few have slipped but with good reason (Tuck, Allen, etc.).

Suggs may be worth more than the #10 in this year's draft but I doubt anyone would pay more than that.

*Shrug*

Went back to 1998, which is 10 full drafts ago. Guys that were somewhere between teh suck and "not that special" as pass rushers drafted in the top 13:

1998 Andre Wadsworth (Arizona)(3)
2000 Courney Brown (Browns)(1)
2000 Shaun Ellis (Jets)(12)
2001 Justin Smith (Bengals)(4)
2001 Andre Carter (Niners)(7)
2001 Jamal Reynolds (Packers)(10)

-- note -- in 2002-2005, very few DEs / OLBs were taken in the top 13. Those that were were mostly successful (Ware, Merriman etc.)

2006 Kamerion Wimbley (Browns) (13)

Book still out on:

2007 Gaines Adams (Tampa Bay) (4)
2007 Jamaal Anderson (Atlanta)(8)
2007 Adam Carriker (Rams)(13)

Whoever in 2008

TEX · 03-23-2009, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

If you want Everette Brown dropping to 10 is pretty risky because that is right where he is going to go...

And you better get alot more than a 2 to drop from 3 to 10.

This

bdeg · 03-23-2009, 03:36 PM

I think the Browns take him if he's on the board at 5. Depends who else is available I guess they could really like a QB.

03-23-2009, 12:10 PM
journeyscarab SHOCKERS BABY! Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Overland Park, KS Casino cash: $1773555	New Updated Mock 1.Detroit Lions: Jason Smith OT Baylor 2.St.Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe OT Virginia 3.San Francisco 49ersFrom KC): Matthew Stafford QB Georgia 4.Seattle Seahawks: Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio St 5.Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas 6.Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech 7.Oakland Raiders: Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech 8.Jacksonville Jaguars: Mark Sanchez QB USC 9.Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji DT Boston College 10.Kansas City Cheifs(From SF):Everette Brown DE Florida St 11.Buffalo Bills: Brian Cushing LB USC 12.Denver Broncos: Josh Freeman QB Kansas State 13.Washington Redskins: Andre Smith OT Alabama 14.New Orleans Saints: Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest 15.Houston Texans: Clay Matthews LB USC 16.San Diego Chargers: Michael Oher OT Ole Miss 17.New York Jets: Jeremy Maclin WR Mizzou 18.Chicago Bears: Eben Britton OT Arizona 19.Tampa Bay Buccaneers:Chris Wells RB Ohio St 20.Detroit Lions: Tyson Jackson DE LSU 21.Philadelphia Eagles: Robert Ayers DE Tennessee 22.Minnesota Vikings: Vontae Davis CB Illinois 23.New England Patriots: Rey Maualuga LB USC 24.Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew TE Okie St. 25.Miami Dolphins: Darius Butler CB Uconn 26.Baltimore Ravens: Percy Harvin WR Florida 27.Inidanapolis Colts: Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss 28.Philadelphia Eagles: William Beatty OT Uconn 29.New York Giants: Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia 30.Tennessee Titans: Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest 31.Arizona Cardinals: Donald Brown RB Uconn 32.Pittsburgh Steelers: D.J. Moore CB Vandy Chief's get 2nd rd pick from SF and other disclosed picks Chiefs select Connor Barwin with 2nd rd pick
Posts: 3,414

03-23-2009, 02:05 PM	#47
bdeg Veteran Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: iowa Casino cash: $10004900	We were definitely both being obtuse, but I think it's still possible to get lucky and find a game-changer later on.
Posts: 2,987

03-23-2009, 03:36 PM	#60
bdeg Veteran Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: iowa Casino cash: $10004900	I think the Browns take him if he's on the board at 5. Depends who else is available I guess they could really like a QB.
Posts: 2,987