Clark Judge: Rating smartest, boldest, scariest offseason moves

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by THISmaqe

By the way, risk is quantifiable. There's no way to quantify the "harm" of passing on Sanchez because we'll never see him play as a Chief.

Htis, I think what the other folks are trying to describe is opportunity cost.

If you don't take Sanchez, you're missing out on the oppotunity to gain the benefit of his employment with the Chiefs. I'm pretty sure that's what the other guys are after.

There is an arguement of risk with opportunity costs. If we don't take him, then we risk losing his potential production. It's all a matter of what if's but it's just like anything in the financial world. If you think there is a certain percentage chance you can make a yield a quantified amount, that becomes your opportunity cost. I believe the same can be said about football players. By not taking him, you risk losing his potential production, whatever you have projected that to be.

[Reaper16]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Htis, I think what the other folks are trying to describe is opportunity cost.

If you don't take Sanchez, you're missing out on the oppotunity to gain the benefit of his employment with the Chiefs. I'm pretty sure that's what the other guys are after.

There is an arguement of risk with opportunity costs. If we don't take him, then we risk losing his potential production. It's all a matter of what if's but it's just like anything in the financial world. If you think there is a certain percentage chance you can make a yield a quantified amount, that becomes your opportunity cost. I believe the same can be said about football players. By not taking him, you risk losing his potential production, whatever you have projected that to be.

I can cede to this terminology, as this is the crux of what I was getting at.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Htis, I think what the other folks are trying to describe is opportunity cost.

If you don't take Sanchez, you're missing out on the oppotunity to gain the benefit of his employment with the Chiefs. I'm pretty sure that's what the other guys are after.

There is an arguement of risk with opportunity costs. If we don't take him, then we risk losing his potential production. It's all a matter of what if's but it's just like anything in the financial world. If you think there is a certain percentage chance you can make a yield a quantified amount, that becomes your opportunity cost. I believe the same can be said about football players. By not taking him, you risk losing his potential production, whatever you have projected that to be.

We never had his potential, therefore it's not ours to risk.

I completely agree with the notion of opportunity cost, but this isn't the stock market. Opportunity cost - the risk of losing out in FUTURE revenue - is QUANTIFIABLE. Suggesting that project his potential production is subjective to the point of being almost absurd.

The "value" of Mark Sanchez can't be determined before he steps on the field, and I would argue can NEVER be determined because he never suited up for THIS team under THESE circumstances.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by THISmaqe

We never had his potential, therefore it's not ours to risk.

That's where the arguement of risking potential gains comes into place.

Originally Posted by THISmaqe

I completely agree with the notion of opportunity cost, but this isn't the stock market. Opportunity cost - the risk of losing out in FUTURE revenue - is QUANTIFIABLE. Suggesting that project his potential production is subjective to the point of being almost absurd.

As far as the stock market goes, while you can quantify it, you can also be wrong. The opportunity cost for getting out of stocks and going into Bonds is much different than it was a year ago. Shit is dynamic. Things change. We can be wrong.

I agree that it is much more difficult to do with personnel, maybe even to the point that we cannot glean any value from it, but we can debate oppotunity cost of players. In fact, we do it all the time.

Originally Posted by THISmaqe

The "value" of Mark Sanchez can't be determined before he steps on the field, and I would argue can NEVER be determined because he never suited up for THIS team under THESE circumstances.

Understood. And agreed for the most part. But we could project his production. Its just like any other decision. You weigh what you think you can get for a player vs. What you can get out of another. Its just like any other business decision. Cabela's just opened a store in Billings MT. They have projected the store sales, but they don't know what it will be until it actually hits the market. The shit could burn down tomorrow and we get no sales (I'm looking at you Ryan Sims). But there were also other stores we could have built. We forecasted their sales and determined that the opportunity cost for not building in Billings was higher. We could be wrong. The other store may have been a world beater, but based on our forecasts, we chose Billings.

I contend that the same things can be done with personnel. It is a lot harder because there are so many variables, but that doesn't mean we CAN'T think along those lines. We could project the value he would provide with wins/losses, yards, etc. We'll never know what wee might have gotten, but Cabela's won't know what that store would have done either, but that doesn't mean there is no opportunity cost.

As for the argument that opportunity cost can be risked, meh. That's just debatable. I'd have to think on that some more.
Posted via Mobile Device

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I contend that the same things can be done with personnel. It is a lot harder because there are so many variables, but that doesn't mean we CAN'T think along those lines. We could project the value he would provide with wins/losses, yards, etc. We'll never know what wee might have gotten, but Cabela's won't know what that store would have done either, but that doesn't mean there is no opportunity cost.

I guess if you really want to think along those lines, then you can certainly come up with logic to justify it. It just seems like such an incredible waste of time and the only people that want to do it are the ones that are still stinging from not taking Sanchez. It seems to be a 100% emotional response but they spend alot of time cooking numbers to make it seem justified.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by THISmaqe

I guess if you really want to think along those lines, then you can certainly come up with logic to justify it. It just seems like such an incredible waste of time and the only people that want to do it are the ones that are still stinging from not taking Sanchez. It seems to be a 100% emotional response but they spend alot of time cooking numbers to make it seem justified.

No arguement there. I am certainly not advocating its effectiveness, but it is possible.

Heh. Coincidentally, Mecca goes down that road a lot..."We could have had antonio cromartie".

Same shit, different day.
Posted via Mobile Device