An analysis of franchise momentum: The Chiefs' Dow Jones Average.

[Rain Man]

Good observation. My playoff bonuses are completely arbitrary and I agonized over them. My main question was, "Is a 1 and done better than not making the playoffs at all?" The obvious response is that it's better to make the playoffs and lose, but at the same time a bunch of 1 and dones is depressing, as we all know.

My compromise solution is to assume that making the playoffs requires a good record, so to some extent a 1 and done season will still be positive in the big picture. But what really makes a difference is winning a playoff game. Otherwise, a 1 and done somewhat deflates the season.

So you're right. It's a bigger hit at the end of the season to lose your first playoff game than it is to not make the playoffs. However, it was probably still a successful season overall since you won enough games to get into the playoffs. Winning playoff games is the real driver, though.

I also tried to think of something related to how many years since you've been in the playoffs, but couldn't think of a good way to build that in conceptually. It was big to get in in 1986, but at the same time the team wasn't that great so as a fan we knew the odds were against us.

Feel free to tweak the formulas.