"Official" 2011 St. Louis Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

This is so unreal. We were dead. No hope. A season over. Somehow, someway we find some team chemistry and squeak into the playoffs on the last day of the season.

Only to find us facing one of the best pitching staffs assembled in years with home field advantage. We somehow, someway find a way to beat the best pitcher in baseball on the road in an elimination game.

We have to go on the road and beat the team with the best home record in baseball. A team who mortgaged their future to make this run .We somehow, someway find a way to beat them on the road and make our 18th World series trip.

We take game 1, we give away game 2 and home field advantage. Albert goes off for probably the best performance in World Series history and we take game 3 easily. Games 4 & 5 our bats fall asleep, Phone gate happens and its not looking too good.

Game 6, one of the best baseball games of all time and it takes place in a season ending go home game. Cardinals are down 2 runs in their final chance on the season, twice. They are down to their final strike of the season, twice. They give up a 2 run homer in extra innings. In the bottom of the inning their final 3 batters are a combined 3-26 in the Playoffs and a pitcher because the bench is empty. Somehow, someway they get some runners on and the comeback player of the year drives in the tying run. Mr. Freese hits the walk off home run. We will see you tommorrow night.

Game 7, With our bulldog on the mound pitching on 3 days rest he is able to give us 6 good innings and get us to within 9 outs of our 11 World series title. Texas meltsdown, probably left over from last nights game and its over.

The underdog, come back team who had no business even being in the playoffs wins a World championship. They make movies about events like this in life. Events that you remember even if your not a fan of the sport or team for the rest of your life.

When it is your team.......Priceless


.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That's three losses you can pin on Tony LaRussa this year.

Some boards you have a lot of people saying Franklin should voluntarily resign/retire. I don't understand this at all. He's not trying tO blow a game. It's Tony fault, not franklin's.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

Not in 2007. In 2007, he had a good year.

So, izzy has 280+ saves. He was good. My point was that he longer was good and everyone in the world knew this but Tony .

[BigRedChief]

I'm mOre hopeful after reading the post game comments
From duncan, mOz and Tony. I think they are going to give someone else a chance.

[Lono]

Izzy had like 54 blown saves from 2000-2008. Worst over that time frame.

[Chief Henry]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'm mOre hopeful after reading the post game comments
From duncan, mOz and Tony. I think they are going to give someone else a chance.

I have not ready any of the stories in the STL. Post tis morning...but if what you are saying is true, then thank god and FINALLY.

[Hays]

Franklin will lose his closer job after that. Sounds like Batista will get it but I think it should be Boggs with the way he has pitched so far

[luv]

I thought there were some Cards fan on here. Anyone interested in killing the Cubs? Royals fans seem to like them.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=243766

[Frazod]

Originally Posted by luv

I thought there were some Cards fan on here. Anyone interested in killing the Cubs? Royals fans seem to like them.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=243766

It just an enemy-of-my-enemy thing - same reason I've grown to like the White Sox over the years. White Sox fan hatred of the Cubs is just as petty, silly and baseless as Royal fan hatred of the Cardinals, but they take it to another level which I can appreciate.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Look past the simple stats and look at his batted ball numbers. The guy was the luckiest mother****er in baseball over the last two years. He was the anti-Aaron Hill. It doesn't take a genius to realize when a guy is relying on aberrational luck.

There's no such thing as 2 seasons worth of 'luck'. You've been making this argument for the last 3 seasons and it just doesn't sell. Over a month, sure - that'll even out. But the man had one of the top 3 conversion rates in all of baseball over the last 2 seasons - that's not a matter of luck. Even the most hardcore SABRE folks would never attempt to argue that someone can simply be lucky for 2+ seasons (in fact, about 2.75 seasons out of 3).

Franklin succeeded by not walking guys and not giving up HRs - that combination will close a lot of ballgames out.

Now he's doing both. His stuff has regressed to the point that he can't rely on location and so he's nibbling with it. Then he misses and it gets sent 400 feet. When you're working with margins as slight as Franklin was, any decline in stuff is enough to make you completely ineffective.

He's shot, don't get me wrong, it's definitely time to make a change. And with the way his stuff was falling off last year and the fact that he's 38, it was foolish for us to believe he wouldn't regress this point this season. But you jumped the gun big time on him and have spent the last 3 seasons wrong with him. The fact that age finally caught up to him doesn't make you right.

Whatever has you refusing to give him credit for 3 seasons of strong relief work is also making you look quite foolish in regards to Jaime Garcia. Just as Franklin was an effective closer, Garcia has an arsenal that will make him a very effective LHSP for a very long time. What may eventually bite him is injuries (violent mechanics, especially for a lefty), but his stuff is ideal for a LHSP.

It's not all about batted balls and K-rates. You'll notice the patron saint of bad luck (Dave Bush) continues to suck at actually getting people out and that poor ol' unlucky Aaron Hill is working on his 3rd lousy season out of 4; 5th out of 7 if you want to get really technical. Maybe the great one was the true outlier.

I love the advanced metrics, but you can't just use them without having a context for them. Just as some guys don't play to their peripherals, some guys are capable of playing well beyond them. When someone honestly tries to argue that a player was merely lucky for nearly 3 seasons, even the stat geeks will roll their eyes at him. That's just being needlessly dogmatic.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

1) You can't talk about context and not mention that Hill had the lowest BABIP in 50 years. That's wantonly dishonest.
2) Franklin's BABIP numbers:

.289
.287
.292
.247
.302
.263
.249

He did not have 2 3/4 good seasons, he had two aberrational ones. His FIP was near 5 in 2008 along with a 1.47 WHIP. He has the same walk rate as he did in 2009.

His pitch to contact smoke and mirrors has finally evened out, and he's actually being a bit unlucky with HR's right now, but that's what happens when you have statistical corrections.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Ryan Franklin is basically Todd Jones.

[Swanman]

I say put Sanchez in the closer role and see what happens. I know Tony won't do it, but why not. The kid has filthy stuff that many guys haven't seen yet. If he falters, move him into a setup role with Boggs as the closer. Franklin should be throwing BP in AAA.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

1) You can't talk about context and not mention that Hill had the lowest BABIP in 50 years. That's wantonly dishonest.
2) Franklin's BABIP numbers:

.289
.287
.292
.247
.302
.263
.249

He did not have 2 3/4 good seasons, he had two aberrational ones. His FIP was near 5 in 2008 along with a 1.47 WHIP. He has the same walk rate as he did in 2009.

His pitch to contact smoke and mirrors has finally evened out, and he's actually being a bit unlucky with HR's right now, but that's what happens when you have statistical corrections.

There is no such thing as 2 seasons of bad luck.

Hell, the fact that every single season of his career gives him a BABIP below league average means nothing to you?

Again - you're just being dogmatic despite the fact that the people that created the doctrine you're blindly adhering to would never follow you down this trail. They all acknowledge the age old axiom - "You can distinguish luck from skill by its duration".

None of them would ever point to 4 seasons of fairly static performance as lucky (you can't disregard his 2007 season just because he wasn't closing then). They'd say that his AS season was luck driven, but that the remainder of his track record suggests that his 2010 is probably about what you can expect of him. You don't blow off 250+ relief appearances as 'luck'. That's enough of a sample size to call it pretty reliable.

You go ahead and keep worshiping your false gods like Dave Bush and his .452 winning percentage. Keep telling anyone that will listen that someday his actual results will match his XFIP.

The bottom line is that over a month, maybe even a season, guys can get lucky or unlucky. But over 4 seasons, the 'luck' evens out. Ryan Franklin doesn't keep a lucky penny shoved up his ass. He hasn't just been butt ass lucky for the last 48 months. He challenges hitters down, works the corners and minimizes his damage by not giving up an inordinate number of HRs or walks.

Sometimes baseball really is as simple as it appears. Folks that wait until a 38 yr old pitcher loses his fastball then tries to rearview mirror 4 seasons of strong performance as 'luck' are the folks give the actual thinking stats fans a bad name.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Swanman

I say put Sanchez in the closer role and see what happens. I know Tony won't do it, but why not. The kid has filthy stuff that many guys haven't seen yet. If he falters, move him into a setup role with Boggs as the closer. Franklin should be throwing BP in AAA.

With Sanchez's size and noisy mechanics, I'd be very reluctant to put him in the closer role just yet.

He'll be dynamite and soon. But a young kid getting that role is going to feel a lot of pressure. Combine that pressure with simple inexperience and he's going to feel a need to go out there and try to blow everyone away. I'd hate to see him overthrow a breaking ball and tear his shoulder up because we gave him the 9th too soon.

Boggs has the stuff for it, he's simply lacked the command. If he can learn to keep his breaking stuff down in the zone and use his fastball as a real weapon (it's a great pitch), he's absolutely ready for the 9th. He's been in the show for awhile now and we've seen him take his lumps (mostly as a starter). I think he has the psyche for the job.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by Hays

Franklin will lose his closer job after that. Sounds like Batista will get it but I think it should be Boggs with the way he has pitched so far