Race for the #1 pick

[Hammock Parties]

We're losing ground.

Colts: 0-4
Vikings: 0-4
Dolphins: 0-4
Rams: 0-4
Chiefs: 1-3
Jaguars: 1-3
Broncos: 1-3
Eagles: 1-3
Panters: 1-3
Seahawks: 1-3
Cardinals: 1-3


Important games the Chiefs need to lose:

ALL OF THEM

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by Buck

SWEEP!!!!

This..................................

[ReynardMuldrake]

And The Star gets in on the Luck action:

Chiefs might be out of Luck

RANDY COVITZ THE NFL

It’s still early in the NFL season, but it’s not soon to start revving up for the Andrew Luck Derby.

Three of the teams that have yet to win a game — the Chiefs, Miami, and Indianapolis — appear to be front-runners in the race for the first pick of the 2012 draft, most likely Luck, the Stanford quarterback.

Seattle and Denver, both 1-2, could also be in the market for franchise quarterbacks next spring, and if not Luck, than perhaps other first-round possibilities like USC’s Matt Barkley, Oklahoma’s Landry Jones, Baylor’s Robert Griffin III Boise State’s Kellen Moore and Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins.

Minnesota and St. Louis, the other 0-3 teams, would pass on a quarterback with their first-round picks because the Vikings drafted Christian Ponder in the first round this year, and the Rams took Sam Bradford with the first pick in 2010.

So let’s look at the Chiefs’ competition in the Looking for Luck Division.

•COLTS: Four-time MVP Peyton Manning is recovering from his third neck surgery in 19 months, and he’s got to be thinking about his quality of life after football.

Even if Manning, 35, returns next season, an heir apparent must be found, and Colts president Bill Polian has a history of finding franchise quarterbacks.

As Buffalo’s general manager, he brought in Jim Kelly from the defunct USFL in 1986, and Kelly led the Bills to four Super Bowls. In building the expansion Carolina Panthers in 1995, Polian’s initial first-round draft pick was Kerry Collins, who led the team to the NFC championship game a year later.

And soon after Polian’s arrival in Indianapolis, he selected Manning with the first overall pick in the 1998 draft. No team has had more playoff appearances than the Colts since, including two trips to the Super Bowl and one championship.

The only other quarterbacks on the Colts’ roster are Collins, who came out of retirement two weeks before the regular season when it was apparent Manning would not be ready to play, and Curtis Painter, a sixth-round pick in 2009.

Collins, 38, sustained a concussion in Sunday night’s loss to Pittsburgh, and Painter, who finished the game, could start Monday at Tampa Bay if Collins is not cleared. But when asked after each of his team’s first two losses whether he ever considered putting Painter in the game, coach Jim Caldwell’s response was a succinct, "No."

The Colts, by virtue of winning the AFC South, have a difficult schedule, which includes four of their next five on the road.

The only home game in that stretch? Oct. 9 vs. the Chiefs, which could be a loser-take-all.

•DOLPHINS: Chad Henne keeps putting up big numbers, including a career-high 416 yards in the season-opening loss to the Patriots. But his last two performances have been mediocre, and if the Dolphins, as expected, make a coaching change at the end of the season, the new regime is going to want its quarterback of the future.

The Dolphins, who have lost nine of their last 10 home games, could be hard-pressed to come up with many wins and could replicate their 1-15 record of 2007 which was followed by the selection of offensive tackle Jake Long with the first overall pick and Michigan teammate Henne in the second round.

The Dolphins play four of their next five on the road, including a Nov. 6 trip to Kansas City for what could play a role in who gets lucky. The only home game in that stretch is against Denver. And if draft position goes down to the final three weeks of the season, look how Miami finishes: at Buffalo, at New England, home to the Jets.

•BRONCOS: Denver offered Kyle Orton for trade during the offseason, so don’t think coach John Fox would be opposed to making a change there. Oh, he is using Tim Tebow in some red-zone packages and has Brady Quinn in the wings, but Fox inherited those guys and has no obligation to stake his coaching future to them.

It won’t get any easier for Orton because the Broncos play this week at Green Bay and the following week against San Diego before their bye. When the Broncos resume play on Oct. 23 at Miami, those fans buying billboards clamoring for Tebow could get their wish, if only for a while. The Dolphins, who are having trouble selling tickets, would love to see Tebow, an icon in Florida, play that day.

The top overall pick could come down to Jan. 1 when the Broncos finish the season at Arrowhead Stadium.

•SEAHAWKS: Keep this in mind. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll recruited USC’s Barkley and started him in 12 games as a true freshman in 2009. He also coached against Luck.

Tarvaris Jackson may be a solid change-of-pace backup but is not a franchise quarterback. Nor is backup Charlie Whitehurst.

Carroll, who coached the likes of Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez at USC, will certainly look for an upgrade at the position in the draft, whether he has the first choice or drafts later in the opening round.

The good news for teams like the Chiefs is Seattle has a chance to win a bunch of games playing in the NFC West. Plus the Seahawks play at Cleveland and against Cincinnati during the last two weeks of October, which could put them out of Luck.

http://www.kansascity.com/2011/09/27...t-of-luck.html

[DaKCMan AP]

Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake

And The Star gets in on the Luck action:



http://www.kansascity.com/2011/09/27...t-of-luck.html

The other 4 teams all have animal mascots.

The Chiefs don't.


Coincidence? No.


Destiny?

[cdcox]

Suck for Luck odds after week 3:

KC: 21%
Seattle: 15%
Atlanta: 12% (statistically, Atlanta has gotten off to a terrible start)
Indy: 9%
Minnesota: 8.5%
Miami: 7.5%
St. Louis: 6.5%
Denver: 3.5%
Carolina: 3%
Field: 14%

It is still very early and we could see big changes over a few weeks, but this is encouraging.

[Hammock Parties]

Brilliant!

[NJChiefsFan]

Interesting that nobody is talking about Cincy.

[cdcox]

Chiefs have a 2% chance of making the playoffs.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by NJChiefsFan

Interesting that nobody is talking about Cincy.

They were next up in "the field" at around 3%. Definitely a contender.

[NJChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Suck for Luck odds after week 3:

KC: 21%
Seattle: 15%
Atlanta: 12% (statistically, Atlanta has gotten off to a terrible start)
Indy: 9%
Minnesota: 8.5%
Miami: 7.5%
St. Louis: 6.5%
Denver: 3.5%
Carolina: 3%
Field: 14%

It is still very early and we could see big changes over a few weeks, but this is encouraging.

79% to go.

[Dante84]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Suck for Luck odds after week 3:

KC: 21%
Seattle: 15%
Atlanta: 12% (statistically, Atlanta has gotten off to a terrible start)
Indy: 9%
Minnesota: 8.5%
Miami: 7.5%
St. Louis: 6.5%
Denver: 3.5%
Carolina: 3%
Field: 14%

It is still very early and we could see big changes over a few weeks, but this is encouraging.

I love your stats. You are a huge value to the board.

Can you give a brief overview of the variables you took into account?

[Okie_Apparition]

So if the Chiefs draft Luck. Pollard is a hero

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Dante84

I love your stats. You are a huge value to the board.

Can you give a brief overview of the variables you took into account?

I start with Brian Burke's team rankings available on his web site http://advancednflstats.com. He has done a great deal of research to determine which statistics are most meaningful for predicting the outcomes of future games. The ones he has identified include:

Offensive and defensive net yards per passing attempt
Offensive and defensive success rate of running plays
Offensive and defensive interception rate
Offensive fumble rate
Team penalty rate

He also factors in home field advantage and strength of schedule. These yield is Generic Win Percentage which represents the percentage of games that each team would win, playing against an average team on a neutral site.

I take it from here. I simulate the season thousands of times. At the end of each simulation, I apply the playoff tiebreaker rules to determine which teams would make the playoffs and draft order. I also simulate the playoffs. I tabulate these outcomes over the thousands of simulations to give an overall prediction of outcomes of the NFL season, based on the results so far.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Okie_Apparition

So if the Chiefs draft Luck. Pollard is a hero

Actually the foundation was laid when Rodney Harrison took out Trent Green's knee in the 1999 preseason back when he played for the Rams.

[L.A. Chieffan]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Suck for Luck odds after week 3:

KC: 21%
Seattle: 15%
Atlanta: 12% (statistically, Atlanta has gotten off to a terrible start)
Indy: 9%
Minnesota: 8.5%
Miami: 7.5%
St. Louis: 6.5%
Denver: 3.5%
Carolina: 3%
Field: 14%

It is still very early and we could see big changes over a few weeks, but this is encouraging.

math rules sometimes

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by L.A.Chieffan

math rules!

fyp