How does Dwayne Bowe rank among the elite WR's?

[OnTheWarpath15]

Sorry, didn't want this getting overlooked in the other thread. Then again, people will probably ignore it anyway - I know some of you will appreciate this.


I keep seeing people say that Dwayne Bowe isn't an elite WR. So I decided to do some research to see how he matches up statistically over his 5 years in the league.

What I found, is that statistically, Bowe is the 10th best WR of the last 5 years.

I found 9 other WR's that either had better yardage totals, better TD numbers or both. He was 10th in yardage, tied for 6th in TD's.

Here's the list. (Yardage/TD's) Bolded players have fewer or same TD's as Bowe.


Larry Fitzgerald - 6480/49

Roddy White - 6422/42

Reggie Wayne - 6234/36

Wes Welker - 6105/31

Calvin Johnson - 5872/49

Andre Johnson - 5703/35

Greg Jennings - 5539/46

Steve Smith - 5353/29

Marques Colston - 5202/40

Dwayne Bowe - 4927/36


Personally, I think that's impressive on its own.

Especially when you consider the only guy on this list who is younger is Megatron. I'd be curious to see how he matches up to the same players during each of their first 5 seasons.

Anyway, when you compare Bowe's number's to the #1 yardage and #1 TD's - he's not nearly as far off as it seems.

It comes down to 19.41 yard a game, and .16 TD's per game.

Factor in that Bowe is missing something the other 9 have - solid QB play.

After looking at this, its hard for me to say Dwayne Bowe is NOT an elite WR, considering how his numbers match up to the "elite" and never having the benefit of decent QB play.

I'm pretty confident in saying that with solid QB play, Bowe would easily make up 19.41 yards and .16 TD's a game.

Like him or not, he's an elite WR - and has shown it over his 5 years in the league.

Dude deserved elite money.

Or, tl;dr - **** him.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Because Boss asked me if I'd pay him $60M guaranteed. Why this figure? Good question. I thought 63 would be more appropriate.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini

I'm sure this has been posted

Bob Fescoe
Just an FYI, Branden Albert recently fired his agent Todd France. France also reps Dwayne Bowe. So before getting mad at the chiefs keep that little nugget in mind. And I bet Albert makes out just fine in KC without France.

Welp, there's the death knell for Albert.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Do I need to say 40-50 percent guaranteed? That's the going rate for this kind of deal.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Welp, there's the death knell for Albert.

?

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by aturnis

Do I need to say 40-50 percent guaranteed? That's the going rate for this kind of deal.

He's probably worth 41, but no way is he worth 44. That's crazy talk.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by aturnis

?

Joke.

Fescoe is about as accurate in his reporting/predictions as Wickedson and CoMoChief.

[Hammock Parties]

By popular request.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Toad King

By popular request.

GOLD, JERRY!

[BigRock]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

After looking at this, its hard for me to say Dwayne Bowe is NOT an elite WR

I think a good rule of thumb is that if you have to look at a page of stats to determine whether a guy is an elite player, then he's probably not.

And Bowe isn't. He's a very good receiver. But he's not elite.

That doesn't mean he shouldn't get paid. I hope he's in KC for years. Pay him whatever he wants, it's not my money. But let's not get so carried away with ****ING PIOLI ****ING THINGS UP AGAIN that we trick ourselves into thinking Bowe's something he's not.

We all watch him play. We all know that his "very good" games far outweigh his "great" ones. If it wasn't for 2010, this wouldn't even be a topic of conversation.

Could Bowe be among the elite if he played under better circumstances? Better QB and all that? Sure. But things can cut both ways. If we're just going to compare blind stats, then all those guys in the OP, how much of their yards and TDs did they post while playing from behind on dogshit teams? Because in Bowe's case, it's a lot.

Bowe's first two years in the league, he put up nearly 70% of his stats while the team was getting its ass kicked. Obviously defenses play you differently in those situations. And we threw the hell out of the ball his first couple years. Everyone thinks of ol' Conservative Herm never wanting to throw, but they had to pass. They were constantly behind.

I believe we were 10th in pass attempts in Bowe's first two years. Lots of passes, always having to play catch-up, that's going to boost a receiver's numbers. But nobody ever factors that stuff in. We'll talk about why his numbers aren't as good as they could be, but never mention that in some years they look better than they really were.

Starting in 2010, it was a totally different story. We threw the ball far less. We were playing with leads. That year, Bowe posted nearly 70% of his stats while the team was tied or ahead. It was a total transformation. (Cue up simpleton bullshit about how Bowe didn't improve under Haley because he went from 1000 yards to 1000 yards).

That Bowe was elite. He changed games. He was a beast. He had a good 2011, but it wasn't quite at that same level. It's not a fair comparision, though, because the run game fell apart without Charles.

As it stands, though, he's had one great year and some years that were good to very good. That just doesn't make for an "elite" player.

But if Bowe beasts again this year, which he very well may if defenses have to respect the run, then Pioli's going to have to swallow his pride and open the checkbook or look like a massive fool (again).

[BigRock]

Incidentally, Adam Schefter's entire quote on Bowe/money:

You're looking at a wide receiver market where Calvin Johnson cashes in on a mega-deal. And Larry Fitzgerald cashes in on a mega-deal. And the going rate for top wide receiver deals is very high, richer than the Chiefs want to pay for Dwayne Bowe. Dwayne Bowe sees what other players have gotten. He believes he's worth in that general vicinity. And the Chiefs don't.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by BigRock

Incidentally, Adam Schefter's entire quote on Bowe/money:

Great. If this is entirely accurate, Pioli is misjudging talent. Again.

[Hammock Parties]

You gonna tell me that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson didn't post a bunch of numbers while they were losing and their teams sucked?

Also, didn't we play a crap ton of close games in 2007 and 2008?

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by BigRock

I think a good rule of thumb is that if you have to look at a page of stats to determine whether a guy is an elite player, then he's probably not.

And Bowe isn't. He's a very good receiver. But he's not elite.

That doesn't mean he shouldn't get paid. I hope he's in KC for years. Pay him whatever he wants, it's not my money. But let's not get so carried away with ****ING PIOLI ****ING THINGS UP AGAIN that we trick ourselves into thinking Bowe's something he's not.

We all watch him play. We all know that his "very good" games far outweigh his "great" ones. If it wasn't for 2010, this wouldn't even be a topic of conversation.

Could Bowe be among the elite if he played under better circumstances? Better QB and all that? Sure. But things can cut both ways. If we're just going to compare blind stats, then all those guys in the OP, how much of their yards and TDs did they post while playing from behind on dogshit teams? Because in Bowe's case, it's a lot.

Bowe's first two years in the league, he put up nearly 70% of his stats while the team was getting its ass kicked. Obviously defenses play you differently in those situations. And we threw the hell out of the ball his first couple years. Everyone thinks of ol' Conservative Herm never wanting to throw, but they had to pass. They were constantly behind.

I believe we were 10th in pass attempts in Bowe's first two years. Lots of passes, always having to play catch-up, that's going to boost a receiver's numbers. But nobody ever factors that stuff in. We'll talk about why his numbers aren't as good as they could be, but never mention that in some years they look better than they really were.

Starting in 2010, it was a totally different story. We threw the ball far less. We were playing with leads. That year, Bowe posted nearly 70% of his stats while the team was tied or ahead. It was a total transformation. (Cue up simpleton bullshit about how Bowe didn't improve under Haley because he went from 1000 yards to 1000 yards).

That Bowe was elite. He changed games. He was a beast. He had a good 2011, but it wasn't quite at that same level. It's not a fair comparision, though, because the run game fell apart without Charles.

As it stands, though, he's had one great year and some years that were good to very good. That just doesn't make for an "elite" player.

But if Bowe beasts again this year, which he very well may if defenses have to respect the run, then Pioli's going to have to swallow his pride and open the checkbook or look like a massive fool (again).

Would you mind linking these stats?

One, folks have gotten a little loose with the definition between speculation and fact.

Two, I'd love to find a site that breaks down individual stats (to this degree) based on game circumstances.

I'll get to the meat of your post in the morning. You make some good points, but I have some issues with others.

[Messier]

Originally Posted by BigRock

I think a good rule of thumb is that if you have to look at a page of stats to determine whether a guy is an elite player, then he's probably not.

And Bowe isn't. He's a very good receiver. But he's not elite.

That doesn't mean he shouldn't get paid. I hope he's in KC for years. Pay him whatever he wants, it's not my money. But let's not get so carried away with ****ING PIOLI ****ING THINGS UP AGAIN that we trick ourselves into thinking Bowe's something he's not.

We all watch him play. We all know that his "very good" games far outweigh his "great" ones. If it wasn't for 2010, this wouldn't even be a topic of conversation.

Could Bowe be among the elite if he played under better circumstances? Better QB and all that? Sure. But things can cut both ways. If we're just going to compare blind stats, then all those guys in the OP, how much of their yards and TDs did they post while playing from behind on dogshit teams? Because in Bowe's case, it's a lot.

Bowe's first two years in the league, he put up nearly 70% of his stats while the team was getting its ass kicked. Obviously defenses play you differently in those situations. And we threw the hell out of the ball his first couple years. Everyone thinks of ol' Conservative Herm never wanting to throw, but they had to pass. They were constantly behind.

I believe we were 10th in pass attempts in Bowe's first two years. Lots of passes, always having to play catch-up, that's going to boost a receiver's numbers. But nobody ever factors that stuff in. We'll talk about why his numbers aren't as good as they could be, but never mention that in some years they look better than they really were.

Starting in 2010, it was a totally different story. We threw the ball far less. We were playing with leads. That year, Bowe posted nearly 70% of his stats while the team was tied or ahead. It was a total transformation. (Cue up simpleton bullshit about how Bowe didn't improve under Haley because he went from 1000 yards to 1000 yards).

That Bowe was elite. He changed games. He was a beast. He had a good 2011, but it wasn't quite at that same level. It's not a fair comparision, though, because the run game fell apart without Charles.

As it stands, though, he's had one great year and some years that were good to very good. That just doesn't make for an "elite" player.

But if Bowe beasts again this year, which he very well may if defenses have to respect the run, then Pioli's going to have to swallow his pride and open the checkbook or look like a massive fool (again).

Aaaaaaannndd........thread.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by BigRock

Incidentally, Adam Schefter's entire quote on Bowe/money:

This makes Scott look like an incompetent baffoon