Interesting Evaluation of the Broncos by Grantland

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by JohnnyV13

Yeah, its long.

The cliff's notes is that the Broncos are unlikely to be super bowl contenders due to:

1) They had a terrible Points/For Points/Against ratio--- -81 and finished 8-8. Teams that similarly outperformed their ratio tended to regress in the following year.

2) Manning was showing signs of regression his last full season. That process is likely to continue.

3) Veteran qb stars switching teams usually take at least a year to regain their footing cites: Warren Moon, Favre, Montana, Kurt Warner, Randal Cunningham as examples.

4) Broncos have the toughest schedule as rated by Football Outsiders. Unlikely to be dominant with that schedule.

5) Weak supporting cast: Denver's receiving corp is the weakest Manning has ever had in his career and Denver's line is suspect. No Jeff Saturday hurts Manning's ability to make line adjustment calls.

6) Weak defense aside from Dumervil and Von Miller.

Bottom line: He sees Denver no better than 8-8 this season.

They are better than that.

I actually see a situation similiar to what Montana did for us. Good first season, probably carries the team on his back to a playoff win or two. Then his skills decline rapidly the next year.