Inflation Watch Thread - Holy Guacamole

[BIG_DADDY]

I guess some of that liquidity is hitting the system now. Just went grocery shopping and stopped at the Fish Market. After that I went to Target to pick up a foam roller. $3 avocado, really? $43 a pound for King Crab up $5lb. in just the last week. $30.76 a pound for Halibut. Target had a foam roller for $26.95 plus tax for a piece of friggen foam. Hello Amazon. Went to SF the other day and got two martini’s. The damage, $30 plus tax and tip and some other fee they hitting customers up for these days to pay for their employees health care, all for a couple splashes of vodka. The black market is really going to start flourishing. I already source and buy all of my food directly in Southern Oregon and bring it back down with me. It’s all cash only, even the butcher. I would like to have those kinds of contacts here but it is a lot harder. Southern Oregon is a unique place. So what’s it like where you live and where are you seeing inflation and how are you dealing with it? Unfortunately I think this is just the very beginning especially when it comes to quality food.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Donger

Conspiracy nonsense aside, hydrogen hasn't made much progress because petroleum is still by far the most cost-efficient method of powering our vehicles. If and when that changes, I assure you that the energy companies will be all over it.

The new technologies are never as efficient as the old until you completely commit to them.

I have no problem with the existing energy companies making money off of the new stuff. They are resisting because the old stuff is just 'easier' for them.

Just do it already

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

The problem is the money has to be there. The corn belt grows corn because it can grow the **** out corn. It is absurd how much corn that part of the world can grow. The reason they grow corn is because it is absolutely the most profitable crop. If they were to grow Hard Red Winter Wheat like I do, they would absolutely embarrass my yields. But it makes WAAAAY more money for them to grow corn.

The other thing to consider is yield. Those bastards can grow 200 bushel corn without trying. I don't know anything about their capacity to grow switchgrass. It seems in my mind that the corn belt could produce more ethanol per tillable acre with corn than switchgrass. Unless the shit produces like 50 ton/ acre. Which won't happen. I'd be interested to see some numbers on it.

The other side of the equation is that they are going to have to sacrifice corn acres to plant switchgrass. The reduced acres produces less bushels. Drives the price up.

The reality is that switchgrass has to make more money than another crop of corn or beans. And it doesn't. Or they'd do it.

On an unrelated note, they are trying to build a cellulosic ethanol plant in Hugoton KS and they want us all to bail up our crop residue and ship it there. But in this part of the world, the crop residue is worth way more than they could ever afford to pay.

Again, if it makes more money than corn, farmers will jump all the hell over it.

When I came out of college I toured a research facility pushing switch grass development. I stood next to a plot of grass that was at least 10-12' tall while they rambled on about 15' being easily attainable. They were bragging about the production possibilities when everything works right, while this dumb farm boy wondered just how the **** they expect a farmer to get it cut off, laid down, rolled up and hauled off with machinery that was no where near able to handle the sheer volume. The economics were no where near replacing corn and it took several years of very low production before the stand established itself and reached it's full potential. The team seemed to think the industry belonged in the areas of the Dakotas that received enough moisture to sustain the growth but couldn't compete with the corn belts production levels.

I left thinking is was a ****ing pipe dream with numbers so fudged no intelligent farmer would invest a couple hundred thousand dollars and 3-4 years of their time to see if it became profitable.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ghak99

When I came out of college I toured a research facility pushing switch grass development. I stood next to a plot of grass that was at least 10-12' tall while they rambled on about 15' being easily attainable. They were bragging about the production possibilities when everything works right, while this dumb farm boy wondered just how the **** they expect a farmer to get it cut off, laid down, rolled up and hauled off with machinery that was no where near able to handle the sheer volume. The economics were no where near replacing corn and it took several years of very low production before the stand established itself and reached it's full potential. The team seemed to think the industry belonged in the areas of the Dakotas that received enough moisture to sustain the growth but couldn't compete with the corn belts production levels.

I left thinking is was a ****ing pipe dream with numbers so fudged no intelligent farmer would invest a couple hundred thousand dollars and 3-4 years of their time to see if it became profitable.

Nobody is committing to production that takes 4-5 years with this volatility.

Bottom line though, corn belt will grow corn unless something else makes more money. Then they will switch.

I think the machinery would not be a big deal. I grow no hay, but I think if it were to be economical, swathers and balers could handle it.

[qabbaan]

Originally Posted by Laz

The new technologies are never as efficient as the old until you completely commit to them.

I have no problem with the existing energy companies making money off of the new stuff. They are resisting because the old stuff is just 'easier' for them.

Just do it already

That doesn't make any sense. If a company could develop and patent this they'd make sums of money we can't even comprehend.

[HonestChieffan]

Originally Posted by ghak99

When I came out of college I toured a research facility pushing switch grass development. I stood next to a plot of grass that was at least 10-12' tall while they rambled on about 15' being easily attainable. They were bragging about the production possibilities when everything works right, while this dumb farm boy wondered just how the **** they expect a farmer to get it cut off, laid down, rolled up and hauled off with machinery that was no where near able to handle the sheer volume. The economics were no where near replacing corn and it took several years of very low production before the stand established itself and reached it's full potential. The team seemed to think the industry belonged in the areas of the Dakotas that received enough moisture to sustain the growth but couldn't compete with the corn belts production levels.

I left thinking is was a ****ing pipe dream with numbers so fudged no intelligent farmer would invest a couple hundred thousand dollars and 3-4 years of their time to see if it became profitable.

Was probably Miscanthus. The simple logistics kills this. having to transport the sheer volume would eat away ay any possible net energy gain. Plus the technology to change cellulose to sugar is not even close. What makes sugar cane so lucrative is the sugar in sugar cane is sugar....you skip the huge expense on the front end that is incurred with corn where starch is converted to sugar.
Good read on Miscanthus.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...DBCKGRpYJrgHUQ

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Was probably Miscanthus. The simple logistics kills this. having to transport the sheer volume would eat away ay any possible net energy gain. Plus the technology to change cellulose to sugar is not even close. What makes sugar cane so lucrative is the sugar in sugar cane is sugar....you skip the huge expense on the front end that is incurred with corn where starch is converted to sugar.
Good read on Miscanthus.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...DBCKGRpYJrgHUQ

That would be it.

[HonestChieffan]

aint gonna cut swath, bale and haul that very far

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

I am sure but fish has been going way up and that doesn't have anything to do with the drought. The martini's and foam roller either. I know the cost of doing business out here is expensive but that is just ridiculous.

We are paying for all the bailouts, it was inevitable.

I catch myself saying holy shit everyday about the price of something, but then I wonder, have I become the old man like my grandpa that was griping about 15 cents for a soda?

We kind of jumped the gun last year buying a place to retire, and doing the addition on it before prices double in the next couple years.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Beef economics and the prices at retail are rather complex. Calves are born on grass not in feedlots and calf production is dispersed across the country. Under normal conditions those calves are kept on the farm on grass till weaning (350-400#). If the producer has grass he will evaluate prices for that weight compared to futures on 500-700 pounders and may hold them till heavier weights. They sell them to what are called backgrounders. Backgrounders are not cow/calf. They run cattle on grass till reaching weight to go into a feedlot.

What is happening now is the weaned calves are getting sold at depressed prices compared to last spring because the grass stocks are virtually nil in the main drought areas. Also, pasture cattle are dependent on water. Water is in the form of ponds...they are drying up. So what we call lightweight cattle are moving into the feedlots.

Lightweights require more corn and hay and mineral in the feedlot since they come in light. As this flows, the feedlots will begin to kill lighter weight fat cattle. When they start killing lighter cattle the supply of finished meat in the supermarket will go down. Prices at that point will rise.

Compare timelines on chicken and pork to beef and you can see why those meats react faster to cost of production changes. Chicken from egg to table is a matter of weeks, Hogs from birth to breakfast is months. Beef is over a year.

Total cows(breeding females) is down and will drop further causing more inflationary pressure on meat. Some say we could see $10 corn. That will be a huge factor on beef but even more on chicken and hogs. Example of this is its always been a rule of thumb that to feed a pig from 40 pounds to butcher weight of 220 it will require roughly 10 bushels of corn and whatever is needed in soybean meal and mineral. a corn move from $5 to $10, and beans moving from $12 to $20 will roughly double the cost to raise a pig. Producers can influence their selling price rapidly by breeding fewer sows.

Drought plays a major role on decisions here forward. We will run out of hay if we dont get fall rains to get grass growing. That is impacting us now when you see producers sell cows. Grain prices and range conditions will hit backgrounders and feedlots hard.

Consumers have an opportunity now to buy low cost beef in supermarkets because we ar killing a lot of cattle to make room for the light cattle coming in and we have a temporary glut of meat(beef)

Dunno if this helps but there it is...AgEcon 101 sorta

That's pretty awesome for those of us that are dumb to all of it. Thanks much. You may have just saved me a few hundred bucks.

[Nzoner]

Hopefully meat prices don't get too crazy before having to order for this years Bash.

[HonestChieffan]

Maybe more detail than some want but here is an excellent write up on Inflation due to grain shortages and the impact not only US but globally...

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-...165287416.html

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Maybe more detail than some want but here is an excellent write up on Inflation due to grain shortages and the impact not only US but globally...

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-...165287416.html

Yea, I am going to try and solidify my purchase of a side of beef and pork this Thursday.

[HonestChieffan]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/09/news...P_LN&hpt=hp_t1

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

Yea, I am going to try and solidify my purchase of a side of beef and pork this Thursday.

Did you get this done?

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Did you get this done?

I got a side a beef grass fed and finished at $2.40lb There are only 5 people that I found that really want to buy my beef from up in Southern Oregon and he was the last person not sold out. He only has 3 sides left and he will be sold out too. The person I get my chickens and pork from may not be raising pigs this year. That sucks because all the others are sold out already too. Apparently people are on to this whole meat is going to soar in price thing, everyone seems like they are sold out already so if you guys are going to get this done I suggest you get on it.

I love living in Southern Oregon because of the unbelievable deals I get on food out there amongst other things. This weekend I just decided to move my family back to the bay area after the next school year though so most of that may be a thing of the past. I gotta figure that one out. I miss my family too much though and my boy has had enough of this part time dad dealio. Now that we decided I can't wait to get them here.