Chiefs Mellinger: Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB - Page 7

dallaschiefsfan · 10-13-2012, 04:22 PM

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/10/13...#storylink=cpy

Posted on Sat, Oct. 13, 2012
Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB
By SAM MELLINGER
The Kansas City Star

The talk around the Chiefs is about turnovers. Gotta limit turnovers. Take care of the ball. Value the football. For all the talk about Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn and whether this hot mess of a season can be saved, so much of what’s been said and focused upon in team meeting rooms has been about limiting turnovers.

On the surface, it makes fine sense. The Chiefs outgained every opponent this season but have turned the ball over 19 times already. That’s a silly number, you know. It’s more than three teams had all of last season, and on pace for more than any team in the last 30 years.

Internally, the Chiefs seem to believe this is their biggest problem, that fixing the turnovers will stop the angry banners from flying over Arrowhead Stadium, and soften the criticism of general manager Scott Pioli, and redirect attention to what finally looks like a very good defense.

The thing is, that belief is just wrong. The much bigger problem is the quarterback, whether it’s Cassel or Quinn. The facts are overwhelming.

Think about this: teams with more yards of offense are winning 65 percent of the time this season, teams with more rushing yards are winning 68 percent of the time, and teams with fewer turnovers are winning 76 percent of the time.

Teams with the higher passer rating are winning 85 percent of the time.

Quarterback play trumps all, even turnovers, and it is past time the Chiefs join the 21st century. And to the point that Cassel is on the hook for 14 of the Chiefs’ turnovers, these issues are correlated, but it only matters if the Chiefs see it this way and drastically change their priorities.

Because they are swimming upstream, running a race with ankle weights, and competing in a beauty contest without makeup. They’re focused on the wrong things. This is the most frustrating kind of losing.

Even if the Chiefs fix what they think they’re doing wrong, they’ll still be doing it wrong.

In general terms, this is not new, of course. The need for an improved quarterback situation is a staple column topic here, and criticism of Pioli’s confidence in Cassel is now part of Kansas City’s DNA.

But as the evidence stacks up, the Chiefs should be forced into making major changes — regardless of who is in charge. Consider this a public service.

The purpose today isn’t to rehash old arguments, but to look at them from different perspectives. Like, for instance, Las Vegas oddsmakers. Sports books have proprietary quarterback rating systems that are among their biggest factors in setting lines.

Elite passers like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are worth as much as a touchdown — an enormous number in a league where only one game opened with a line bigger than five points this week.

Curious what happened when Cassel was officially ruled out this week in favor of Quinn, who has completed just 52 percent of his passes and hasn’t started a game in three years?

“No (line) move whatsoever on Cassel,” says Pat Morrow, head oddsmaker for Bovada.

In oversimplified terms, the Chiefs have focused on every position but quarterback, convinced that if the rest of the roster is strong enough they can win without a Hall of Fame passer. This is a bit like trying to start a fire with two sticks instead of a Zippo.

Even ignoring how horrendous Cassel was this year before his concussion, and that Quinn also isn’t good, the philosophy is so clearly outdated (at best) or delusional (at worst) that it has some fans rooting for losses so the team might be convinced to draft a quarterback.

The facts are overwhelming. The last game-managing quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Brad Johnson a decade ago, and in the last 25 years, every Super Bowl-winning quarterback but three (Johnson, Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien) is either in the Hall of Fame or likely to be inducted.

The NFL’s emphasis on parity, particularly through the salary cap, makes it nearly impossible to be so good at other positions that a team can be merely OK at the most important spot.

But Ben Roethlisberger can compensate for a mediocre offensive line, Aaron Rodgers can make up for a weak running game, and Tom Brady can hide a bad defense.

Changes in how football is played — from rules favoring the offense to quarterbacks entering the league much better prepared than ever before — mean that “good” is no longer good enough. It used to be that quarterbacks needed to throw catchable balls. Now, they’re relied on for passes so accurate that the receivers maintain speed and extend plays after the catch.

When the Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Bears a few years ago, Chicago ended up with the second-best record in the NFC and Denver ended up with the second pick in the draft. Various studies have shown that when elite quarterbacks face non-elite passers, they win about 80 percent of the time.

The Chiefs are essentially trying to make hay in that 20 percent. They are knowingly going into most games disadvantaged in something that league-wide numbers and Vegas experts with millions on the line say is even more critical than turnovers. They are doing this on purpose.

It’s incredible how much of the Chiefs’ mess could be cleaned up with a better quarterback situation.

The worst part is that the Chiefs seem to be the only team in the league that doesn’t see this. With the possible exception of the Jets — who reached two AFC championship games with Mark Sanchez — no team has gone nearly as long as the Chiefs without an honest effort to improve nearly as bad a quarterback situation.

The Chiefs are either smarter than every other team in the league, or spinning their wheels in thick mud, and at 1-4 with the NFL’s fifth-worst point differential, the evidence is stacking up fast.

It tells you plenty that Chiefs fans are relieved to see Quinn. Imagine if they actually had a promising quarterback. One that wasn’t given up on after 12 starts in Cleveland, who hasn’t been behind Ken Dorsey and Tim Tebow and Derek Anderson on the depth chart.

Instead, the Chiefs have put their fans in the awkward position of wondering whether it’s better the team continues to lose so that the organization may have more motivation and opportunity to fix its fundamental flaw.

This is what happens when a fan base is forced to wait for a team to recognize reality.

To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send e-mail to [email protected] or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com.

© 2012 Kansas City Star and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved. http://www.kansascity.com

**BigMeatballDave** · 10-13-2012, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

I cant remember a player that missed this much time to a concussion unless they ended up retiring.

-hopes thats the case-

(not him being dead, just retiring)

Rodgers missed a game 2 yrs ago.

**BigMeatballDave** · 10-13-2012, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

No, we should construct an elaborate conspiracy theory.

I thought that already happened when Matt got a phone call from some unknown?

**BossChief** · 10-13-2012, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave

Rodgers missed a game 2 yrs ago.

I remember that, but I'm pretty sure he practiced, but only without contact.

htismaqe · 10-13-2012, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Show me 3 games where an NFL team (that didnt have Tebow or the Miami wildcat) ran the ball 75% of the time.

This team ran the ball 42 times and passed it 18 against Jacksonville in 2010. Seriously, I am on an iPad and still found it in less than a minute.

htismaqe · 10-13-2012, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave

Are you referring to the Flacco fumble that was returned for a TD near the end of the game?

He was in the grasp and therefore down.

**BossChief** · 10-13-2012, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave

I thought that already happened when Matt got a phone call from some unknown?

right after a wasted timeout followed by an interception on the very next play....followed by nothing but boos and chants of "we want quinn we want quinn"

The very next time he got hit, he stayed down.

(Im just feeding the conspiracy theory...watching the hit, its clear he got his bell rung)

Pasta Little Brioni · 10-13-2012, 08:20 PM

Cassel sucks at QB and looks douchey doing it, but I don't believe at all he "pulled a Huard". The guy tries, he just fails so hard, but he does try.

**BossChief** · 10-13-2012, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I've seen it a half dozen times in the last 18 months just watching this team. People are hoping against all hope that what they're seeing isn't real.

It is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

This team ran the ball 42 times and passed it 18 against Jacksonville in 2010. Seriously, I am on an iPad and still found it in less than a minute.

.

DTLB58 · 10-13-2012, 08:21 PM

Dayze · 10-13-2012, 08:24 PM

I want pioli gone and whoever the **** we have as our "scouts"

htismaqe · 10-13-2012, 08:31 PM

So you want to play semantics with the "18 months" comment?

Why do you insist on acting like a clown?

You said name 3. I named one, from THIS team even, in less than a minute.

**SAUTO** · 10-13-2012, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Whats his and Carrs PFF coverage and overall rankings now?

48 and 69 iirc
Posted via Mobile Device

**BossChief** · 10-13-2012, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

So you want to play semantics with the "18 months" comment?

Why do you insist on acting like a clown?

You said name 3. I named one, from THIS team even, in less than a minute.

Don't blame shift/throw insults and act like all I'm doing is playing a semantics game.

NFL teams don't gameplan the way we did against Baltimore unless they are totally trying to hide the quarterback and that was the point you refuted.

Shit, even the Baltimore players were saying it DURING THE GAME.

DTLB58 · 10-13-2012, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

He was in the grasp and therefore down.

Tell me the last time you heard an NFL official use the words "In the grasp" when they make the call?

They don't use that terminology any longer, it's either called the play dead or forward motion was stopped. The ref blew his whistle to supposedly protect the player, even though it has been stressed to them over the past few years to let the players play.

It's a coin flip, we could easily see a game this week where the same play is let played out. Hell, last year I was watching the exact same plays being called differently simultaneously thru Sunday ticket watching two different tv's.

**BossChief** · 10-13-2012, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

48 and 69 iirc
Posted via Mobile Device

Routt was around 23 on the year and Carr was around 27 prior to the Baltimore game last time I asked him.

10-13-2012, 04:22 PM
dallaschiefsfan Herm is the worst...horrible Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $3058850	Mellinger: Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/10/13...#storylink=cpy Posted on Sat, Oct. 13, 2012 Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB By SAM MELLINGER The Kansas City Star The talk around the Chiefs is about turnovers. Gotta limit turnovers. Take care of the ball. Value the football. For all the talk about Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn and whether this hot mess of a season can be saved, so much of what’s been said and focused upon in team meeting rooms has been about limiting turnovers. On the surface, it makes fine sense. The Chiefs outgained every opponent this season but have turned the ball over 19 times already. That’s a silly number, you know. It’s more than three teams had all of last season, and on pace for more than any team in the last 30 years. Internally, the Chiefs seem to believe this is their biggest problem, that fixing the turnovers will stop the angry banners from flying over Arrowhead Stadium, and soften the criticism of general manager Scott Pioli, and redirect attention to what finally looks like a very good defense. The thing is, that belief is just wrong. The much bigger problem is the quarterback, whether it’s Cassel or Quinn. The facts are overwhelming. Think about this: teams with more yards of offense are winning 65 percent of the time this season, teams with more rushing yards are winning 68 percent of the time, and teams with fewer turnovers are winning 76 percent of the time. Teams with the higher passer rating are winning 85 percent of the time. Quarterback play trumps all, even turnovers, and it is past time the Chiefs join the 21st century. And to the point that Cassel is on the hook for 14 of the Chiefs’ turnovers, these issues are correlated, but it only matters if the Chiefs see it this way and drastically change their priorities. Because they are swimming upstream, running a race with ankle weights, and competing in a beauty contest without makeup. They’re focused on the wrong things. This is the most frustrating kind of losing. Even if the Chiefs fix what they think they’re doing wrong, they’ll still be doing it wrong. In general terms, this is not new, of course. The need for an improved quarterback situation is a staple column topic here, and criticism of Pioli’s confidence in Cassel is now part of Kansas City’s DNA. But as the evidence stacks up, the Chiefs should be forced into making major changes — regardless of who is in charge. Consider this a public service. The purpose today isn’t to rehash old arguments, but to look at them from different perspectives. Like, for instance, Las Vegas oddsmakers. Sports books have proprietary quarterback rating systems that are among their biggest factors in setting lines. Elite passers like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are worth as much as a touchdown — an enormous number in a league where only one game opened with a line bigger than five points this week. Curious what happened when Cassel was officially ruled out this week in favor of Quinn, who has completed just 52 percent of his passes and hasn’t started a game in three years? “No (line) move whatsoever on Cassel,” says Pat Morrow, head oddsmaker for Bovada. In oversimplified terms, the Chiefs have focused on every position but quarterback, convinced that if the rest of the roster is strong enough they can win without a Hall of Fame passer. This is a bit like trying to start a fire with two sticks instead of a Zippo. Even ignoring how horrendous Cassel was this year before his concussion, and that Quinn also isn’t good, the philosophy is so clearly outdated (at best) or delusional (at worst) that it has some fans rooting for losses so the team might be convinced to draft a quarterback. The facts are overwhelming. The last game-managing quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Brad Johnson a decade ago, and in the last 25 years, every Super Bowl-winning quarterback but three (Johnson, Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien) is either in the Hall of Fame or likely to be inducted. The NFL’s emphasis on parity, particularly through the salary cap, makes it nearly impossible to be so good at other positions that a team can be merely OK at the most important spot. But Ben Roethlisberger can compensate for a mediocre offensive line, Aaron Rodgers can make up for a weak running game, and Tom Brady can hide a bad defense. Changes in how football is played — from rules favoring the offense to quarterbacks entering the league much better prepared than ever before — mean that “good” is no longer good enough. It used to be that quarterbacks needed to throw catchable balls. Now, they’re relied on for passes so accurate that the receivers maintain speed and extend plays after the catch. When the Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Bears a few years ago, Chicago ended up with the second-best record in the NFC and Denver ended up with the second pick in the draft. Various studies have shown that when elite quarterbacks face non-elite passers, they win about 80 percent of the time. The Chiefs are essentially trying to make hay in that 20 percent. They are knowingly going into most games disadvantaged in something that league-wide numbers and Vegas experts with millions on the line say is even more critical than turnovers. They are doing this on purpose. It’s incredible how much of the Chiefs’ mess could be cleaned up with a better quarterback situation. The worst part is that the Chiefs seem to be the only team in the league that doesn’t see this. With the possible exception of the Jets — who reached two AFC championship games with Mark Sanchez — no team has gone nearly as long as the Chiefs without an honest effort to improve nearly as bad a quarterback situation. The Chiefs are either smarter than every other team in the league, or spinning their wheels in thick mud, and at 1-4 with the NFL’s fifth-worst point differential, the evidence is stacking up fast. It tells you plenty that Chiefs fans are relieved to see Quinn. Imagine if they actually had a promising quarterback. One that wasn’t given up on after 12 starts in Cleveland, who hasn’t been behind Ken Dorsey and Tim Tebow and Derek Anderson on the depth chart. Instead, the Chiefs have put their fans in the awkward position of wondering whether it’s better the team continues to lose so that the organization may have more motivation and opportunity to fix its fundamental flaw. This is what happens when a fan base is forced to wait for a team to recognize reality. To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send e-mail to [email protected] or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com. © 2012 Kansas City Star and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved. http://www.kansascity.com
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10-13-2012, 08:20 PM	#97
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $198880	Cassel sucks at QB and looks douchey doing it, but I don't believe at all he "pulled a Huard". The guy tries, he just fails so hard, but he does try. __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
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10-13-2012, 08:21 PM	#99
DTLB58 DT CARD COLLECTOR Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: ManCave Casino cash: $10005837	__________________ 667 Different DT cards and counting
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10-13-2012, 08:24 PM	#100
Dayze Resident Glue Sniffer Join Date: Nov 2003 Casino cash: $1769358	I want pioli gone and whoever the **** we have as our "scouts"
Posts: 37,460

10-13-2012, 08:31 PM	#101
htismaqe 'Tis my eye! Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Chiefsplanet Casino cash: $8129900	So you want to play semantics with the "18 months" comment? Why do you insist on acting like a clown? You said name 3. I named one, from THIS team even, in less than a minute.
Posts: 104,374