Statistical Analysis: Projecting NFL QB Failure Using College Stats

[Dante84]

I think a metric that should be included would be quality of opponents. He slightly accounts for that with a broad stroke of "BCS or Non-BCS." They should look at the teams they played against and calculate those opponents win/loss percentage over the course of the respective QB's starts.

Also, you could take that one step further and take into account the quality of the defenses they played against over the course of their starts.

This way it would better categorize those shitty ass QB's from USC and the rest of the lame ass PAC 10/12.

EDIT: Additional thoughts -

ALSO

You should take into account the quality of the QB's own Defense, Special Teams, Running game, and WR dropped balls. This way you know what kind of support they had.

If they have a ton of support, it might ding them. If they performed well in spite of shitty support (Geno) it would be a credit to them.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Dante84

I think a metric that should be included would be quality of opponents. He slightly accounts for that with a broad stroke of "BCS or Non-BCS." They should look at the teams they played against and calculate those opponents win/loss percentage over the course of the respective QB's starts.

Also, you could take that one step further and take into account the quality of the defenses they played against over the course of their starts.

This way it would better categorize those shitty ass QB's from USC and the rest of the lame ass PAC 10/12.

It wouldn't change much really. For instance, one of the most glaring examples at the top of the list is Tim Couch, who played in the SEC.

[RyFo18]

Originally Posted by RyFo18

This is for the first person that points out Matt Leinart and/or Tim Couch:

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

It appears we should sign Leinart immediately.

Kidding or not:

[Dante84]

Originally Posted by Dante84

I think a metric that should be included would be quality of opponents. He slightly accounts for that with a broad stroke of "BCS or Non-BCS." They should look at the teams they played against and calculate those opponents win/loss percentage over the course of the respective QB's starts.

Also, you could take that one step further and take into account the quality of the defenses they played against over the course of their starts.

This way it would better categorize those shitty ass QB's from USC and the rest of the lame ass PAC 10/12.

ALSO

You should take into account the quality of the QB's own Defense, Special Teams, Running game, and WR dropped balls. This way you know what kind of support they had.

If they have a ton of support, it might ding them. If they performed well in spite of shitty support (Geno) it would be a credit to them.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Dante84

ALSO

You should take into account the quality of the QB's own Defense, Special Teams, Running game, and WR dropped balls. This way you know what kind of support they had.

If they have a ton of support, it might ding them. If they performed well in spite of shitty support (Geno) it would be a credit to them.

I don't think you're going to appreciably alter the results, you're just making the calculation more difficult.

[Dante84]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I don't think you're going to appreciably alter the results, you're just making the calculation more difficult.

Maybe. I'm just throwing shit out there.

Maybe CDCOX wants to get all nasty with it.

[unlurking]

Originally Posted by Dante84

Maybe. I'm just throwing shit out there.

Maybe CDCOX wants to get all nasty with it.

You're missing the point. This is ESPN's formula. ESPN is telling us there are no good QB options. According to THEIR formula, Geno is about as can't miss as you can get.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by unlurking

You're missing the point. This is ESPN's formula. ESPN is telling us there are no good QB options. According to THEIR formula, Geno is about as can't miss as you can get.

Keep in mind......from 2009.

[unlurking]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Keep in mind......from 2009.

True, but that's a few seasons, not a decade or anything.

You should send this in and ask them if their research team's formulas are bullshit, or if their current analyst predictions are bullshit. One way or the other, that's pretty blatant hypocrisy.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by Dante84

I think a metric that should be included would be quality of opponents. He slightly accounts for that with a broad stroke of "BCS or Non-BCS." They should look at the teams they played against and calculate those opponents win/loss percentage over the course of the respective QB's starts.

Also, you could take that one step further and take into account the quality of the defenses they played against over the course of their starts.

This way it would better categorize those shitty ass QB's from USC and the rest of the lame ass PAC 10/12.

EDIT: Additional thoughts -

ALSO

You should take into account the quality of the QB's own Defense, Special Teams, Running game, and WR dropped balls. This way you know what kind of support they had.

If they have a ton of support, it might ding them. If they performed well in spite of shitty support (Geno) it would be a credit to them.

Have that on my desk by 9am sharp.

[Dante84]

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

Have that on my desk by 9am sharp.

heh....

I am the king of floating out assignments in hopes that someone picks them up and runs with them. I am occasionally lucky. Most of the time not.

I'm sure someone like CD or InDigestion would be happy to dedicate an hour or two to something like that.

A "NEW QB FORMULA" that they can call their own.

I would be the first to read that thread and provide copious amounts of pos rep.