NFL is Rigged: Week 18 edition

[ToxSocks]

The CP consensus is that the NFL is rigged. Welp, as such, I think it’d be great to discuss this week’s script.

The NFL is rigged, so this should be easy. As easy as predicting a WWE In-Ring interview being rudely interrupted by a rival with a steel chair.

Call your shot, what kind of week 18 shenanigans is the NFL up to?

Las Vegas vs L.A: Which new stadium does the NFL prefer? TWO teams in L.A make the playoffs?

Will the NFL write in a tie game sending BOTH to the playoffs?

Will they sneak the Steelers in for one last hoorah for Ruthlessraper?

Or will they write in Lamar Jackson because he generates ratings?

Will they give the most prestigious player (Mahomes) the #1 seed, or do they want to see the Chiefs in the WC round for extra ratings?

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Wisconsin_Chief

And when the Bengals didn't execute, they were constantly bailed out by penalties. Why weren't we?

This post is a great example... they called two holding calls on the Bengals in their final drive, one that eventually ended up at 3rd and 27 and one that negated a penalty that would have given them a first down (on 4th down).

The entire 2nd half of offense for them was a 70 yard TD catch, punt, a TD due to the complete BS DPI, and the Bengals shooting themselves in the feet multiple times with penalties.

Yet, it's built up to "constantly bailed out".

[Wisconsin_Chief]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Now who's doing the lumping.

Hyperbole aside, it has been mentioned several times in this thread that there are calls that have no defense, that go beyond incompetence and any reasoning.... but, I do feel like those calls are far rarer than some think (like last weekend, there was literally one bad call and one missed false start).

It's one thing to call out those few completely unacceptable calls and another to fish for conclusions whenever there's a pass interference or defensive holding, etc... and it seems like the latter happens quite a bit.

I mean, (and not to lump you in with him) BlackOp one day even said he couldn't think of one game where the Chiefs benefited down the stretch on controversial calls, which reeks of seeing what you want to see and ignoring most everything else.

That's the whole reason for this thread. It doesn't mean we're all completely oblivious to the unexplainable bullshit that happens in the NFL, but I'm also not going to pigeonhole penalties based on a theory, either.

Alright, I'll give you that. I shouldn't "lump" either.

For what it's worth, I really have no theory. I just trust my eyes and my brain to tell me when something is fishy. I don't know if they do it for ratings, or who is involved. I just know a screw job when I see it.

I'll say it again, 99% of the time I don't think there's any issues. But that also makes it easier to see when something is amiss.

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Bold Strategy Jason Bateman GIFfrom Bold Strategy GIFs

devalue the team so they can take a loss on taxes?

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

The WWE is obviously rigged (scripted) to the maximum, but get this everyone: you can bet on WWE. And quite a bit of money, too, although not as much as the main sports. I remember a while back, there was a scandal within the WWE because someone, on their own personal blog with an anonymous name, was making predictions that were coming out exactly accurate. It was an insider that was giving out the scripts ahead of time. Big time drama in the sports betting world, and it didn't last all that long.

But here's what I really wanted to post about. Beyond a thing not being predictable just because it has a script: there are far more variables, competing interests and motivations, behind how games go than the average 'it's rigged' guy even realizes, and this is why 'it's rigged' guy will struggle to make accurate predictions. My source on this is Tim Donaghy's book.

In one game, you might have a ref that just hates one of the players on the other team for personal reasons. And you might have another ref on that same crew that loves that guy for personal reasons, and each might go hard on / easy on that guy / his team in the same game.

There was an example in Donaghy's book where Dick Bavetta (NBA ref) called too many fouls on Lamar Odom of the Heat one game, and it looked bad cause they were in large part bad calls. An astute observer of the ref's influence on sports games might study that game and conclude that Bavetta had a Vendetta (lol) against Odom, and bet against the Heat. But Bavetta knew that people were saying and thinking that, Odom himself amongst them - Bavetta told Donaghy "I'm gonna go very easy on Odom next game. I can't have him thinking I'm after him".

In that example, the refs were very biased and were not calling the game as they saw it, except it benefited the Heat, not their opponents, in that game. That's hard to predict, because it very well could have been the case that Bavetta was after Odom overall, cause that happens too.

This is getting too long, but here's my conclusion. You can't simply decide 'yeah, the games are very shadily called' and then start raking in money by betting the shadiness, because the shadiness is very hard to see through the noise, and it isn't cleanly organized. You have all of these factors, in play to various degrees, or not at all, in any given game:

-personal biases against and for individual players held by each individual ref
-league preference/directive, and the degree that pressure is put on in various games
-various levels of autonomy/seniority of different ref / ref crews to be able to act of their own volition vs. following orders
-the influence of external (gambling) money. If one official is effectively paid off to do one thing, all other scripting in that game is now rendered moot.
-the game is legit hard to officiate, so real human error will obfuscate things
-unpredictability and an eye on Vegas is built into their scheme.

Ultimately though I think too many people get caught up with semantics. Is it "rigged", "scripted", "steered", "influenced", etc? Bottom line is they do NOT call the games as they see them, as Tim Donaghy found out, and said he was shocked. From there, just watch the Bucs/Chiefs Super Bowl and this past Bengal game, amongst countless examples, and decide for yourselves which term best fits. At different times, all do.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Wisconsin_Chief

Alright, I'll give you that. I shouldn't "lump" either.

For what it's worth, I really have no theory. I just trust my eyes and my brain to tell me when something is fishy. I don't know if they do it for ratings, or who is involved. I just know a screw job when I see it.

I'll say it again, 99% of the time I don't think there's any issues. But that also makes it easier to see when something is amiss.

Yeah, I don't remember the last time I was so pissed about sports prior to the SB, and that one DPI last weekend was a good reminder that a terrible call can change an entire game, so don't get too excited.

And the NFCCG non call was far worse than anything in those two games.

There are those who have blown it up into something that's simply not logical, based on made up theoretical stories, and that's what this thread "celebrates".

I'm under no delusion that a ref who's kid is named after Tom ****ing Brady isn't the slightest bit biased when Brady is getting DPI calls after throwing a ball into the stands... but, I'm also slow to blow it up into something I otherwise have no knowledge of and would be completely guessing at.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by wachashi

The NFL just agreed to a deal to host Thursday Night Football exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. The deal will run for 11 seasons and is worth $1 billion - with a "B"

Ratings matter a whole hell of a lot when it's time to negotiate those billion-dollar deals.

The NFL's revenue is directly correlated to ratings. Just because deals are negotiated far in advance doesn't make them less meaningful. It just means they matter more when it's time to negotiate new deals.

NFL ratings have been steadily decreasing for some time. NFL income has done the opposite. Your correlation does not exist. It's actually been the opposite.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by displacedinMN

devalue the team so they can take a loss on taxes?

I could use a tax strategy like this, maybe I'll buy the Arizona Coyotes.

[Red Dawg]

I think it's fair to say that if you have watched football for 30+ years like some of us have and you think something is off then you are probably right. I have watched way too much football in my life. I mean religiously year after year always. There are games from time to time that feel dirty especially since Roger took over. The league has made more money with him at the helm than ever.

Not just us getting hosed in the SB, against the Titans and the Pats. I will also throw the Steelers in there with the Fisher hold. Harrison fell the **** down when we tied the game but no.

Other teams have gotten ****ed as well. Many a playoff team with small fan bases have gotten the shaft by refs in big moments.

Billions are at stake. Hard to think it's all just left to chance of the refs doing their best.

[Imon Yourside]

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch

The WWE is obviously rigged (scripted) to the maximum, but get this everyone: you can bet on WWE. And quite a bit of money, too, although not as much as the main sports. I remember a while back, there was a scandal within the WWE because someone, on their own personal blog with an anonymous name, was making predictions that were coming out exactly accurate. It was an insider that was giving out the scripts ahead of time. Big time drama in the sports betting world, and it didn't last all that long.

But here's what I really wanted to post about. Beyond a thing not being predictable just because it has a script: there are far more variables, competing interests and motivations, behind how games go than the average 'it's rigged' guy even realizes, and this is why 'it's rigged' guy will struggle to make accurate predictions. My source on this is Tim Donaghy's book.

In one game, you might have a ref that just hates one of the players on the other team for personal reasons. And you might have another ref on that same crew that loves that guy for personal reasons, and each might go hard on / easy on that guy / his team in the same game.

There was an example in Donaghy's book where Dick Bavetta (NBA ref) called too many fouls on Lamar Odom of the Heat one game, and it looked bad cause they were in large part bad calls. An astute observer of the ref's influence on sports games might study that game and conclude that Bavetta had a Vendetta (lol) against Odom, and bet against the Heat. But Bavetta knew that people were saying and thinking that, Odom himself amongst them - he told Donaghy "I'm gonna go very easy on Odom next game. I can't have him thinking I'm after him".

In that example, the refs were very biased and were not calling the game as they saw it, except it benefited the Heat, not their opponents, in that game. That's hard to predict, because it very well could have been the case that Bavetta was after Odom overall, cause that happens too.

This is getting too long, but here's my conclusion. You can't simply decide 'yeah, the games are very shadily called' and then start raking in money by betting the shadiness, because the shadiness is very hard to see through the noise, and it isn't cleanly organized. You have all of these factors, in play to various degrees, or not at all, in any given game:

-personal biases against and for individual players held by each individual ref
-league preference/directive, and the degree that pressure is put on in various games
-various levels of autonomy/seniority of different ref / ref crews to be able to act of their own volition vs. following orders
-the influence of external (gambling) money. If one official is effectively paid off to do one thing, all other scripting in that game is now rendered moot.
-the game is legit hard to officiate, so real human error will obfuscate things
-unpredictability and an eye on Vegas is built into their scheme.

Ultimately though I think too many people get caught up with semantics. Is it "rigged", "scripted", "steered", "influenced", etc? Bottom line is they do NOT call the games as they see them, as Tim Donaghy found out, and said he was shocked. From there, just watch the Bucs/Chiefs Super Bowl and this past Bengal game, amongst countless examples, and decide for yourselves which term best fits. At different times, all do.

Refs for sure seem to hate Mahomes, he can get punched in the face and not get a call. Meanwhile Brady gets hit in the shoulder pad and it's roughing.

[redfan]

I'm kinda peeved I didn't get to defend my pick-em title. This thread woulda fit right in; then we would see who can "see".

[wachashi]

Originally Posted by Fish

NFL ratings have been steadily decreasing for some time. NFL income has done the opposite. Your correlation does not exist. It's actually been the opposite.

You don't know what you're talking about.

"The NFL has always been the most popular sport, but the gulf only got bigger and bigger in this age. You saw that recently in the decline of ratings across the board. The NFL was down 7% this year. Everybody else was down way more than that. It's just a different ball game now. And now, from what I understand, I'm not sure they can even do the 'Hey, we get more viewers than "Big Bang Theory" or "Masked Singer"' because 48 of the top 50 broadcasts are just football games now. It's over. This is television. Television is propped up by football."

The NFL is King of TV

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by wachashi

You don't know what you're talking about.

"The NFL has always been the most popular sport, but the gulf only got bigger and bigger in this age. You saw that recently in the decline of ratings across the board. The NFL was down 7% this year. Everybody else was down way more than that. It's just a different ball game now. And now, from what I understand, I'm not sure they can even do the 'Hey, we get more viewers than "Big Bang Theory" or "Masked Singer"' because 48 of the top 50 broadcasts are just football games now. It's over. This is television. Television is propped up by football."

The NFL is King of TV

It's about number of viewers though, right? If the NFL is down in viewers, I wouldn't think contract people care if everything is down as well.

My theory is the NFL is in a huge cash cow bubble right now and of course the NFL knows it... cord cutters, providers excluding sports channels due to costs that most people don't want to pay for, the death of regional sports networks (not that the NFL cares on that one), etc.

Yeah, relatively speaking, the only people left paying $100/month for cable are sports fans, but seems like they're ditching, too.

Not that it's all going to die a fiery death or anything, but I'm sure NFL owners are gettin' while the gettin's good... 50% commercials, pricing out fans, who cares if you alienate some of them with shit refs as they'll just cut the cord eventually, too.

And I'm in that boat, too... Dish is at war with every sports channel contract out there and I'm left without NBC for months and no FSN, etc... and NBCSN stopped broadcasting because nobody cares, And I'll ditch them eventually, too, as unchecked greed is simply not a sustainable model.

[BlackOp]

Originally Posted by wachashi

I'm going with the Chargers as the NFL's current AFC team of choice. If you're looking at which team right now has the most untapped potential in terms of bringing new fans to the NFL, it's the Chargers.

It would make so much financial sense for the NFL to favor them. They've got the young QB, who says all of the right things. The young coach, who says all of the right things. They've got Joey Bosa who talks about his mental health issues to a national audience. And they are in a HUGE TV market, surrounded by other really big TV markets.

The Chargers are a sleeping GIANT.

I'm calling it now. The NFL will do everything in its power to advance the Chargers to the playoffs and ensure a deep run, most likely a Super Bowl berth.

Nah..you're missing the key component. Football teams represent the local culture...and people remain loyal to them for decades. It's a primitive, interwoven bond...look at the Browns.

Chargers are a transient team playing in a city where their rival Raiders used to reside. It was a tragically stupid move from the beginning... can you imagine moving the Chiefs to Portland then trying to sell the Broncos to Kansas City? Nobody would care...kind of like the situation in LA.

The Chargers will always be the least popular team in the NFL...their only hope is either move back to San Diego or sell the franchise, rebrand like the Ravens did and move to city that doesnt have a NFL franchise.

There is more involved than just having a good QB...

[Fish]

Originally Posted by wachashi

You don't know what you're talking about.

"The NFL has always been the most popular sport, but the gulf only got bigger and bigger in this age. You saw that recently in the decline of ratings across the board. The NFL was down 7% this year. Everybody else was down way more than that. It's just a different ball game now. And now, from what I understand, I'm not sure they can even do the 'Hey, we get more viewers than "Big Bang Theory" or "Masked Singer"' because 48 of the top 50 broadcasts are just football games now. It's over. This is television. Television is propped up by football."

The NFL is King of TV

The NFL's current TV contracts were finalized in 2011. They haven't changed since then, other than Fox paying an extra $3M in 2018 to take over Thursday night football. It's not a year per year contract. The ratings don't mean anything until the NFL actually writes new contracts with TV providers. Last year's ratings don't affect this years profits, and that's been the case for 10 years.

[Wisconsin_Chief]

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

I think it's fair to say that if you have watched football for 30+ years like some of us have and you think something is off then you are probably right. I have watched way too much football in my life. I mean religiously year after year always. There are games from time to time that feel dirty especially since Roger took over. The league has made more money with him at the helm than ever.

This is my biggest point as well. 31 years or so I've watched as many games as time will allow. Not just the Chiefs, but whoever is on. I'm a certified junkie.

I know how these games are supposed to flow. There shouldn't be random games where, for some reason, the refs always seem to call a penalty when Team A makes a play and/or team B doesn't. I understand bad calls will always be a part of it, that's a different story.

I don't know, I suppose it's entirely possible it could just be paranoia, but I'm not an overly paranoid guy. I tend to just roll with the punches and trust people for the most part. So that's what makes me even more confident that I can trust my eyes and instinct on this topic.