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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 01-05-2016, 05:10 PM   #2101
Anyong Bluth Anyong Bluth is offline
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Originally Posted by DeepSouth View Post
I don't think the Royals will end up with Kennedy AND Gordon. If they retain Gordon, they do not get the sandwich pick. Since Kennedy would cause the Royals to lose their first round draft pick, I don't see it happening. If Gordon signs elsewhere, they could give up their first for Kennedy, since they are drafting so late, and have the sandwich pick.

Also, Parra is not tied to a Qualifying Offer. The Royals could have Parra and (Chen, Gallardo, or Kennedy) and still have the sandwich pick.
How many million is it going to cost to find that first rounder? The Royals should be in competing mode for winning now, to a degree.

So, if you don't have to sign in first round pick then you could allot that money over to sign a pitcher on a shorter term contract because he's not going to be on the books 4-5 years down the road.

Yes, there is of course the argument about getting young talent with a number of controllable years for cheap salary because you don't want to deplete the farm system. But, it's at least food for thought if you really are looking at competing this year and next year while the core of the team is still intact.
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Old 01-05-2016, 08:43 PM   #2102
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More non news

@JonHeyman: Royals still would love to sign Alex Gordon after bleak start to talks. Also on OF radar: parra, span, fowler, Murphy, etc.
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:13 PM   #2103
Wilson8 Wilson8 is offline
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
I'd take Kennedy because I think he has better raw stuff, Eiland has a history with him, and he's got more upside, IMO. I think Kennedy could have a Volquez-like bump up in Kansas City. He's also a giant red-ass, which I kind of dig.
I found this from a story on stats from the 2015 MLB season...

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Nine to Know: From the Bill Chuck Files of 12/27/15

Batters hit .190 off Hector Santiago on the first pitch of an at bat, the lowest rate in the majors. Batters hit .484 off Ian Kennedy on first pitches, the highest rate in the bigs.

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/sunday-n...ember-27-2015/
SO...seems like Ian might want to do something different with his first pitches.

Also if Dave Eiland got that corrected, it would certainly improve Kennedy's pitching stats.

Where do you find stats so you can figure a .484 average on first pitches?
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:31 PM   #2104
mr. tegu mr. tegu is offline
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Originally Posted by Wilson8 View Post
I found this from a story on stats from the 2015 MLB season...



SO...seems like Ian might want to do something different with his first pitches.

Also if Dave Eiland got that corrected, it would certainly improve Kennedy's pitching stats.

Where do you find stats so you can figure a .484 average on first pitches?
Baseball reference and then the splits for whatever season you are interested in seeing. You can see the pitcher's numbers in all counts.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&year=2015&t=p
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:48 PM   #2105
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Seeing twitter rumors about signing Gordon, 4 years $80 million
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:55 PM   #2106
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Always like Cookie. Good news!
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:55 PM   #2107
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Seeing twitter rumors about signing Gordon, 4 years $80 million
Elaborate please?
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:55 PM   #2108
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Seeing twitter rumors about signing Gordon, 4 years $80 million

Bye Bye Gordo.
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:56 PM   #2109
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
Baseball reference and then the splits for whatever season you are interested in seeing. You can see the pitcher's numbers in all counts.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&year=2015&t=p
Thank you very much. You are correct and when you look it up - http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&year=2015&t=p
Kennedy did have a .484 AVG, .492 OBP, .968 SLG, and 1.460 OPS on First Pitch.

OK, so now where do I go to see what pitch Kennedy is throwing for his first pitch?

It seems this might be something easily corrected.
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:57 PM   #2110
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Elaborate please?
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Old 01-05-2016, 11:01 PM   #2111
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Does that mean with KC?
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Old 01-05-2016, 11:03 PM   #2112
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I don't know, I was assuming Royals but we all know what happens when you assume something.
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Old 01-05-2016, 11:18 PM   #2113
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Your source is someone named "Cupcakes"

I think you may have been fooled by the profile image.
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Old 01-05-2016, 11:21 PM   #2114
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Your source is someone named "Cupcakes"

I think you may have been fooled by the profile image.
Not exactly, I did say it was a rumor.
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Old 01-05-2016, 11:23 PM   #2115
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Not exactly, I did say it was a rumor.
Unless you were trolling us for laughs, no it was not even a legit rumor.
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