Chiefs How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed? - Page 15

MMXcalibur · 03:13 PM

Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

---

Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%

BleedingRed · 11-30-2021, 08:54 AM

We don't need the ****ing #1 seed anymore. We have the experience to go anywhere and play.

**** IT, WILL DO IT LIVE

**RealSNR** · 11-30-2021, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

People were scared of average Titans teams the past few years, and now that they actually have a defense (and handed the Chiefs their worst loss in a long time), they're a joke?

When healthy, they were solid.

What do you mean? Their defense is the worst it’s been in several years. Certainly their defense from the AFC Championship a few years ago is better than what they have now (or did have earlier in the season)

Just because we shit the bed against them doesn’t mean they have a great defense. They don’t

**RealSNR** · 11-30-2021, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

You're missing Baltimore in that equation, who is honestly the odds-on favorite at this point.

I’ll buy you a box of doughnuts if Baltimore gets the 1 seed.

Not happening. It’s gonna be the patriots or the chiefs.

Direckshun · 11-30-2021, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealSNR

I’ll buy you a box of doughnuts if Baltimore gets the 1 seed.

Not happening. It’s gonna be the patriots or the chiefs.

Patriots have a doable path, for sure. The Chiefs have to run the table. If we do, the Patriots can lose the lead on us if they lose one game, just one game. But they don't have many potential losses on their calendar -- the duo with Buffalo is about it for them. So if we lose once, which I expect we'll do, we almost certainly lose out.

Baltimore has to lose twice, of course, if we run the table. Baltimore has a hell of a schedule ahead of them and very well may lose twice.

I just think the hardest equation here is us running the table -- we have a doable schedule but expecting perfection down the stretch is hard for anyone, much less our mistake prone squad this year.

crispystl · 11-30-2021, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

I just don’t see a blowout. Matter of fact I think the Pats win this game. Buffalo has no running game, or RB to scare anyone. Bill will clamp down the pass D with lots of pressure on Allen, and dare them to run (which they can’t). Plus how many big games have we seen Allen choke under high pressure? I think it’s a close game the Pats win.

I concur. Plus the Pats will be in the Bills' head.

crispystl · 11-30-2021, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

You're missing Baltimore in that equation, who is honestly the odds-on favorite at this point.

Oh no he was referring to "contenders". He didn't miss anyone.

**DaFace** · 11-30-2021, 09:50 AM

Playing around with the NYT simulator a bit, it looks like we would have a pretty good shot at it (~75% chance) if we win out. That's taking into account all of the other likely scenarios for other teams. A single loss drops that down to ~20%, though.

So yeah, we can definitely do it, but it's almost certainly going to require running the table.

Red Dawg · 11-30-2021, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

We don't need the ****ing #1 seed anymore. We have the experience to go anywhere and play.

**** IT, WILL DO IT LIVE

That's good to know because we are not getting it without a total melt down by the Titans and Pats.

BleedingRed · 11-30-2021, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

That's good to know because we are not getting it without a total melt down by the Titans and Pats.

Pats will drop 1 or 2 before post season, same with Titans. It's the Ravens we have to worry about.

RunKC · 11-30-2021, 09:59 AM

Are people really afraid of the Patriots and a rookie QB? You guys realize they have beat only 2 winning teams all year right?

And one of them was last Sunday against a nuetered injury rittled team

arrwheader · 11-30-2021, 10:06 AM

Would love the 1 seed but after the tumultuous start of the season, still just feel like win the division get into the playoffs and we have as good a shot as any. Would be happy with 2 seed as well. Got a chance to still play at arrowhead throughout the playoffs if the 1 seed gets knocked out.

Baltimore is losing to GB and probably the rams. I can even see them splitting with the Browns.

Pats have a pretty good chance but Bill has lost to the dolphins in the past so don't count them as a shoe in for it. They probably split with Buffalo and could lose to the colts.

Gonna come down to the last game this year I think. Seems like the NFL backlogged division games more this year

Sent from my SM-F711U1 using Tapatalk

**Bearcat** · 11-30-2021, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Are people really afraid of the Patriots and a rookie QB? You guys realize they have beat only 2 winning teams all year right?

And one of them was last Sunday against a nuetered injury rittled team

And the other is 6-5.

htismaqe · 11-30-2021, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Are people really afraid of the Patriots and a rookie QB? You guys realize they have beat only 2 winning teams all year right?

And one of them was last Sunday against a nuetered injury rittled team

Not to mention that they're playing complimentary football - rush heavy to help keep things simple for him.

Things will ramp up in the playoffs. He'll have to play even better than he is right now. We saw what happens even to the best rookies when that happens.

mr. tegu · 11-30-2021, 10:13 AM

The Chiefs have a better chance of winning out than the Patriots. They could easily be 0-3 in their next three games with two against the Bills and the Colts sandwiched between them with 1-2 seeming pretty likely to me.

**ptlyon** · 11-30-2021, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arrwheader

Gonna come down to the last game this year I think.

This statement got me intrigued, so I went to look.

Every AFC game in week 18 is a noon game, except the AFCW matchups.

11-21-2021, 07:21 PM
MMXcalibur Pessimistically optimistic. Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Denver, CO Casino cash: $2215086	How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed? Updated: 12/19 Teams that actually matter in this conversation: Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN) New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA) Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU) Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT) Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ) Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC) LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV) --- Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999% Last edited by MMXcalibur; 12-19-2021 at 03:13 PM..
Posts: 16,432

11-30-2021, 09:50 AM	#217
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1776899	Playing around with the NYT simulator a bit, it looks like we would have a pretty good shot at it (~75% chance) if we win out. That's taking into account all of the other likely scenarios for other teams. A single loss drops that down to ~20%, though. So yeah, we can definitely do it, but it's almost certainly going to require running the table.
Posts: 51,951

11-30-2021, 09:59 AM	#220
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $2009611	Are people really afraid of the Patriots and a rookie QB? You guys realize they have beat only 2 winning teams all year right? And one of them was last Sunday against a nuetered injury rittled team __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
Posts: 46,296	2 0

11-30-2021, 10:06 AM	#221
arrwheader Veteran Join Date: Dec 2011 Casino cash: $2936613	Would love the 1 seed but after the tumultuous start of the season, still just feel like win the division get into the playoffs and we have as good a shot as any. Would be happy with 2 seed as well. Got a chance to still play at arrowhead throughout the playoffs if the 1 seed gets knocked out. Baltimore is losing to GB and probably the rams. I can even see them splitting with the Browns. Pats have a pretty good chance but Bill has lost to the dolphins in the past so don't count them as a shoe in for it. They probably split with Buffalo and could lose to the colts. Gonna come down to the last game this year I think. Seems like the NFL backlogged division games more this year Sent from my SM-F711U1 using Tapatalk
Posts: 3,477

11-30-2021, 10:13 AM	#224
mr. tegu Forever Royal Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $1721300	How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed? The Chiefs have a better chance of winning out than the Patriots. They could easily be 0-3 in their next three games with two against the Bills and the Colts sandwiched between them with 1-2 seeming pretty likely to me.
Posts: 24,153