*****The Jared Wiley Thread*****

[JPH83]

I agree with Duncan. I quite like Kollman explaining the xs and os, but man he's an awful evaluator, and it's not just the Chiefs. He might be the only person worse at evaluating WRs than me.

Also agree with DJ re "steals" often not being. I'm pretty excited about Wiley because we'll use him better than most other teams. But I think draft steals normally are the result of one of two things. There's character concerns and one team says "f*** it" and gets lucky, or teams pass on a guy because they've been used in a certain way and teams don't trust they can do anything else. Maybe Kelce is the former and Kittle the latter.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I agree with Duncan. I quite like Kollman explaining the xs and os, but man he's an awful evaluator, and it's not just the Chiefs. He might be the only person worse at evaluating WRs than me.

Also agree with DJ re "steals" often not being. I'm pretty excited about Wiley because we'll use him better than most other teams. But I think draft steals normally are the result of one of two things. There's character concerns and one team says "f*** it" and gets lucky, or teams pass on a guy because they've been used in a certain way and teams don't trust they can do anything else. Maybe Kelce is the former and Kittle the latter.

3) Health. The Trey Smith scenario.

As for Wiley - I think you got it exactly right in that the vast majority of 'steals' are simply a guy who fits the scheme and gets coached into it.

In the end, draft 'steals' are almost always health risks that work out or scheme fit guys. There are very few times that one team (and fewer times that some asshole with a Podcast) simply identifies a talent on the 3rd day that every single other team in the NFL missed through several rounds.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

3) Health. The Trey Smith scenario.

As for Wiley - I think you got it exactly right in that the vast majority of 'steals' are simply a guy who fits the scheme and gets coached into it.

In the end, draft 'steals' are almost always health risks that work out or scheme fit guys. There are very few times that one team (and fewer times that some asshole with a Podcast) simply identifies a talent on the 3rd day that every single other team in the NFL missed through several rounds.

Meant to add that but yep, kinda roll it into the character bracket but you're right they're different. The similarity is that for character and injury/illness it's people not accepting what their eyes are telling them I guess, that X player IS a lunatic or injury prone. In the case of Kittle it's teams believing their eyes over their imagination "I've only seen X block, I haven't seen them receive so I'll assume they can't".

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JPH83

Meant to add that but yep, kinda roll it into the character bracket but you're right they're different. The similarity is that for character and injury/illness it's people not accepting what their eyes are telling them I guess, that X player IS a lunatic or injury prone. In the case of Kittle it's teams believing their eyes over their imagination "I've only seen X block, I haven't seen them receive so I'll assume they can't".

Yeah - I'll call Kittle a clear scouting win. Among the few.

I mean the 49ers immediately incorporated him into the passing game. They absolutely saw something the rest of the league didn't.

Let's also remember, though, that they took CJ Beathard in the 3rd, Joe Williams in the 4th and Trent Taylor in the 5th before Kittle. Even THEY didn't see this.

Sometimes it's blind dumb luck. There were clearly teams that needed TEs who could've easily snagged him while they were putting their hopes in Joe Williams at RB. If they thought he was going to be 1/2 the player he's been, they take him in the 3rd. They didn't.

Oh, and they took Solomon Thomas at 3rd overall when they needed a QB and let Mahomes slide to us in that same draft. So I'm not gonna act like they've unlocked the secrets of the draft. They haven't.

They're okay at it. Most teams are only okay at it. And with Kittle they get some credit for seeing more than most, but they also got pretty damn lucky.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - I'll call Kittle a clear scouting win. Among the few.

I mean the 49ers immediately incorporated him into the passing game. They absolutely saw something the rest of the league didn't.

Let's also remember, though, that they took CJ Beathard in the 3rd, Joe Williams in the 4th and Trent Taylor in the 5th before Kittle. Even THEY didn't see this.

Sometimes it's blind dumb luck. There were clearly teams that needed TEs who could've easily snagged him while they were putting their hopes in Joe Williams at RB. If they thought he was going to be 1/2 the player he's been, they take him in the 3rd. They didn't.

Oh, and they took Solomon Thomas at 3rd overall when they needed a QB and let Mahomes slide to us in that same draft. So I'm not gonna act like they've unlocked the secrets of the draft. They haven't.

They're okay at it. Most teams are only okay at it. And with Kittle they get some credit for seeing more than most, but they also got pretty damn lucky.

Yep. That's the thing with a steal I guess. It's largely luck. Most teams are making plenty more f*** ups than they are drafting Kittles. Including the 49ers.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

3) Health. The Trey Smith scenario.

As for Wiley - I think you got it exactly right in that the vast majority of 'steals' are simply a guy who fits the scheme and gets coached into it.

In the end, draft 'steals' are almost always health risks that work out or scheme fit guys. There are very few times that one team (and fewer times that some asshole with a Podcast) simply identifies a talent on the 3rd day that every single other team in the NFL missed through several rounds.

Same could even be said for the draft steal that Chiefsplanet and Chiefs fans in general love to obsess about: DK Metcalf.

He's been awesome for the Seahawks, but the critiques that caused him to drop (stiffness, inability to run most routes effectively) are legit. He's just been in a situation where it hasn't mattered, and his ability to be dynamic on slants, posts, and flys has shined.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Same could even be said for the draft steal that Chiefsplanet and Chiefs fans in general love to obsess about: DK Metcalf.

He's been awesome for the Seahawks, but the critiques that caused him to drop (stiffness, inability to run most routes effectively) are legit. He's just been in a situation where it hasn't mattered, and his ability to be dynamic on slants, posts, and flys has shined.

Which is why I've never barbecued the Chiefs for passing on him.

Now I will get at them a bit for passing an McLaurin because Scary Terry DOES fit everything we needed here. Though ultimately he'd have occupied a lot of the same space as Sammy at that time.

The Chiefs didn't 'miss' on that pick - they were targeting a very specific trait due to a very bizarre set of circumstances.

Mecole Hardman is a Chief because Brooke Pryor is a reckless and unprofessional shitweasel. That's it.

But/for all that, I still don't think Metcalf is a Chief for the very reasons you stated. But maybe McLaurin is...

[Basileus777]

Kollman doesn't watch as much tape as you'd think, a lot of what he says are just hot takes. I watched his podcast on the 49ers and he had all sorts of takes about Purdy in the playoffs that don't fit with what the people who actually broke down the film say.

[gordonelloyd]

I think several Posts hit it on the head. Steals are a manner of luck. Things like character, scheme, and health often facto in . But often it’s just a matter of pure luck.

I was going to give a list of examples, but it’s so long and they are so obvious and it’s too much work. But if you look through Wikipedia annual draft reports and see who has made pro bowl, not surprisingly most of them are in round one or round two. But almost every year there are a number that come in round three and later.

[O.city]

It comes down to what Belicheck said before he got too into himself.

Paraphrasing but "draft guys for what they can do and are good at, ask them to do that while you develop them to do things they can't".

[kysirsoze]

I'm so ****ing excited about this dude. Worthy is fairly getting a lot of attention, but if Wiley becomes a legit weapon, the NFL is just totally ****ed.

[In58men]

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[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by In58men

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In 7 or 8 years, you should be able to retire. Congrats!

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by In58men

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Makes me want to get back into card collecting.