Chiefs Haley gambled to win - Page 2

**cdcox** · 10-11-2010, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I have no problem with either decision. None.

However, perhaps Haley has underestimated his own team a bit because we ultimately didn't have to do anything unconventional or ultra-aggressive to win yesterday.

One thing I would point out is that the "unconventional 4th down call" is actually statistically the right move. It has a higher value of expected points. (Caveat -- I haven't checked this particular down-distance-field position scenario).

Sometimes the conservative move is just plain wrong. If you are saving money for retirement, putting all of your money in a savings account at the age of 20 is just a plain wrong move, even though it looks "conservative". Similarly if you automatically take the 3 points in that situation, when the expected value of going for it on fourth down is higher (say 4 points), then it is actually a decision that has a negative impact on winning, even though it is "conservative".

**DeezNutz** · 10-11-2010, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

One thing I would point out is that the "unconventional 4th down call" is actually statistically the right move. It has a higher value of expected points. (Caveat -- I haven't checked this particular down-distance-field position scenario).

Sometimes the conservative move is just plain wrong. If you are saving money for retirement, putting all of your money in a savings account at the age of 20 is just a plain wrong move, even though it looks "conservative". Similarly if you automatically take the 3 points in that situation, when the expected value of going for it on fourth down is higher (say 4 points), then it is actually a decision that has a negative impact on winning, even though it is "conservative".

Great points.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 10-11-2010, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I have no problem with either decision. None.

However, perhaps Haley has underestimated his own team a bit because we ultimately didn't have to do anything unconventional or ultra-aggressive to win yesterday.

Yep. Why gamble when you don't need to?

Show a little faith in your players to do the job you've asked them to do. If it some point during the game they show they can't, then be aggressive.

WilliamTheIrish · 10-11-2010, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Yep. Why gamble when you don't need to?

Show a little faith in your players to do the job you've asked them to do. If it some point during the game they show they can't, then be aggressive.

Going for it on 4th does show faith in his players to the job. So does the onside kick.

**Rain Man** · 10-11-2010, 10:49 AM

The professional level is full of great athletes so it's hard to win on physical ability alone. The way to win is to put them off balance. Even if you don't get the onside kick, our next dozen opponents will be in the film room saying, "Now, watch for the onside kick", and that may win us a few yards on every kickoff.

On a related note, I like the fact that I can't always tell who's blitzing now. With Gunther's defenses, the QB would walk to the line, point out the blitzers, and then audible receivers to go into their area. Whether it was poor play design or poor execution, Gunther's blitzes never surprised anyone.

I'd much rather have the Chiefs be unpredictable than predictable.

**DeezNutz** · 10-11-2010, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FAX

All in all, we presented a very conservative game strategy. Again, I think that goes back to their confidence in Mike Cassjuice ... or lack therein.

I think he thought that we needed extra possessions (any way we could steal them) and that field goals weren't going to get it done.

Looking back, I'll bet he was somewhat surprised at the play of the defense, though ... one can only speculate as to whether he would make the same decisions knowing that we could hold the Mannings to zero (0) touchdowns until late in the game.

FAX

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGuardian

And I think what you will see in the future is that maybe Haley understands that better now, and might not be as likely to take those chances, and may take the points.

Haley has shown he's a guy that will go with what he's got. When our QB play gets better I'm sure his play calling will change. Right now, he's got a great defense and great ground game. I think you will see him scheme his game plans around that now until Cassel shows he can contribute better. Which is never.

Absolutely. Going into IND, common sense would certainly suggest the need for a lot of points and an extra possession or two.

And I agree that Haley seems flexible in his approach to coaching, which is refreshing.

TheGuardian · 10-11-2010, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Absolutely. Going into IND, common sense would certainly suggest the need for a lot of points and an extra possession or two.

And I agree that Haley seems flexible in his approach to coaching, which is refreshing.

Yup yup. So I expect to see him play it a bit more close to the vest and take some gambles here and there. So I think we will see our offense be a bit predictable and conservative for a while unless something changes. Haley will try to win with his strengths and not fit round pegs into square holes.

**alnorth** · 10-11-2010, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

The professional level is full of great athletes so it's hard to win on physical ability alone. The way to win is to put them off balance. Even if you don't get the onside kick, our next dozen opponents will be in the film room saying, "Now, watch for the onside kick", and that may win us a few yards on every kickoff.

On a related note, I like the fact that I can't always tell who's blitzing now. With Gunther's defenses, the QB would walk to the line, point out the blitzers, and then audible receivers to go into their area. Whether it was poor play design or poor execution, Gunther's blitzes never surprised anyone.

I'd much rather have the Chiefs be unpredictable than predictable.

Exactly. When you watch what happened, Indy clearly wasn't staying home at all. They had no respect at all for the possibility of an onside kick and we would have gotten the ball if it went 10 yards.

We might not be able to pull that trick off more than 1 or 2 more times this year, but at least our remaining opponents will stay home and not be in a big hurry to get back early to set up their blocks. 5 or 6 weeks from now, if we notice on our first kickoff that they aren't staying home, onside kick it again and keep doing it until they respect our kickoff unit.

bluehawkdoc · 10-11-2010, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I'd much rather have the Chiefs be unpredictable than predictable.

Well said. I would take our current offensive scheming every time over LJ trying to play butt darts with our offensive lineman all day.

**DeezNutz** · 10-11-2010, 10:50 AM

I should add that the only thing I disliked about the 4th-down decision was putting the ball in Cassel's hands. In this case, give it to our best player, Charles, and not our weakest.

TheGuardian · 10-11-2010, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I should add that the only thing I disliked about the 4th-down decision was putting the ball in Cassel's hands. In this case, give it to our best player, Charles, and not our weakest.

I was ok with a pass call but all Casshole had to do was throw it over the middle to the wide open fullback and not into triple coverage. The play call was fine, the QB just sucks nuts.

**ChiTown** · 10-11-2010, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGuardian

I was ok with a pass call but all Casshole had to do was throw it over the middle to the wide open fullback and not into triple coverage. The play call was fine, the QB just sucks nuts.

Therefore, Haley should have NEVER put that opportunity into Cassel's inept hands.

FAX · 10-11-2010, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiTown

Therefore, Haley should have NEVER put that opportunity into Cassel's inept hands.

Well, with all respect that's due an highly knowledgeable person and exceptional poster with extraordinary skill and acumen, that's an assumption deal, right there, Mr. ChiTown.

For all we know, Weis made that call.

FAX

**ChiTown** · 10-11-2010, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FAX

Well, with all respect that's due an highly knowledgeable person and exceptional poster with extraordinary skill and acumen, that's an assumption deal, right there, Mr. ChiTown.

For all we know, Weis made that call.

FAX

On 4th and 2 from the Goal? That's the HC's call, and as a former OC, he was all over that play (especially during the timeout).

TheGuardian · 10-11-2010, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiTown

Therefore, Haley should have NEVER put that opportunity into Cassel's inept hands.

At some point to win games your QB HAS to make SOME plays. You can't hide him away the entire game either. The pass to Bowe is an example. He made that play, then Bowe dropped it. Cassel needs to make that play on the goalline. a handoff that close to the goalline with a stacked box doesn't give you a lot of chances either. Go back and look at the 3rd and short situations and what happened. We got stuffed.

Cassel has to make enough plays to at least keep the defense honest. Otherwise soon the ground game doesn't work either, and now you HAVE to throw the ball around and you take chances you don't want to. So yeah Cassel HAS to make some plays even if it has a chance to fail more than succeed.

10-11-2010, 10:49 AM	#5
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-662449 VARSITY	The professional level is full of great athletes so it's hard to win on physical ability alone. The way to win is to put them off balance. Even if you don't get the onside kick, our next dozen opponents will be in the film room saying, "Now, watch for the onside kick", and that may win us a few yards on every kickoff. On a related note, I like the fact that I can't always tell who's blitzing now. With Gunther's defenses, the QB would walk to the line, point out the blitzers, and then audible receivers to go into their area. Whether it was poor play design or poor execution, Gunther's blitzes never surprised anyone. I'd much rather have the Chiefs be unpredictable than predictable. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,489