What matters most when drafting a WR?

[kccrow]

When it comes to the top 40 WRs in yardage in the NFL for 2013, you'll notice some striking statistics.

Statistic 1: Size Matters
Of the top 10 WRs in Yardage (and TDs scored), 7 are at least 6'3" and 8 are 6'0" or more. Of the top 40 WRs, 35% are 6'3" or taller. A staggering 75% are 6'0" or taller.

Here is the breakdown:

Ht	Ht#	Ht%	Ht+%
6'3" +	14	35%
6'2"	4	10%	45%
6'1"	5	13%	58%
6'0"	7	18%	75%
5'11"	1	3%	78%
5'10"	6	15%	93%
5'9"	3	8%	100%

Statistic 2: Timed Running Events Don't Matter As Much As You Think

The only real logical conclusion is that if you don't hit NFL target measures, you probably won't find yourself in the top 40 WRs in the NFL. Here's a bit of a look at the NFL's top 4 running measurements.

Exhibit A: 40-Yard Dash

I shouldn't say it doesn't matter, but what doesn't matter to NFL folks is whether or not you run a 4.35 or a 4.55. Just don't run above a 4.55 or your chances go down (there are some caveats).

If you scan the top 40, you'll notice 40 times vary wildly. If you want to draw any conclusion, most NFL top WRs run at least a 4.55. Very few of the NFL's top WRs run in the 4.4s, let alone the 4.3's. Fixating on speed is bad practice, they aren't running track.

If you've ever seen the NFL's targets, you'll see that 4.55 is actually the speed the NFL looks for a WR to possess, and the data backs it up.

Exhibit B: 10-Yard Split

You'll notice that, as a group, most WRs in the top 40 runs somewhere between a 1.55 and 1.60 10-yards split. There isn't much variation between a 4.4 guy and a 4.5 guy in this stat. Coincidentally, the NFL target is 1.60 seconds. Much like the 40-yard dash, so long as you aren't too far away from target, you're good to go.

Exhibit C: 3-Cone

This is probably getting old by now, but once again the top 40 NFL WRs pretty well follow the target of 7.00 seconds in the 3-cone. Don't run that fast? Well, your chances shrink considerably at being a #1 or even a #2 in the NFL.

Exhibit D: 20-Yard Shuttle

The shuttle might just be the most forgiving statistic aside from the 40 yard dash in all the timed events. The NFL looks for a 4.15 in the "short" shuttle. As you can see by the data, most NFL receivers in the top 40 run somewhere in the range of 4.00 to 4.30 and without too much statistical analysis it appears they trend towards the higher half of that range.

Statistic 3: Well, its not really a statistic at all. Here is what I'll say about NFL WRs towards the top. They all tend to run rather precise routes, they all can run the entirety of the route tree, and they all tend to be hands catchers.

So there you have it, bigger is usually better, benchmark speeds are all you need, guys need to run good routes, and you need a guy that catches with his hands.

When I see a guy like Matthews, I grin ear to ear, because he fits every criteria to be very good. In fact, I loved Keenan Allen last year and I see them as VERY similar players.

[Sfeihc]

Originally Posted by Mugsy

For me it has to be hands. Everything else is great but if you can't catch you can't "receive."

Welp, you gotta take the good with the bad. kccrow is here and now so is mugsy who's next mongo?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Sfeihc

Welp, you gotta take the good with the bad. kccrow is here and now so is mugsy who's next mongo?

I might offset both of them, so call it a wash :P

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Dante84

This is a good start... but I want to scan the top 40 WR's to look for more patterns. It would be cool to have a full profile of your target WR. Are there any key metrics, aside from height, that indicate a high likelihood of success?

Are there certain metrics, when paired with other metrics that indicate a high likelihood of success? (X Vert + Y Height +Z Hand size = Top 10 WR?)

Hand Length?
Wingspan?
Vertical?
Wonderlic Score?
Drop % in College?

I did not notice a correlation between hand size and success, except for that 9" seems to be the minimum. I'll look into these over the weekend when I get some time though, good suggestions.

[Jakemall]

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...metric-allstar

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Jakemall

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...metric-allstar

No offense to you Jake, but articles like this just make me think of throwing crap at the wall until you find a turd that sticks. Heck, I'm sure I could add a bunch of combine numbers together, divide by 973, and end up with some construed statistic that favors my presentation. In the end, the reality is that you have to compare a player against a time-tested standard, which is exactly what NFL execs actually do. If a player fails to meet the standard in any one area, all is not lost, but failure to hit several of the standards usually means that player will find it difficult to compete. Then you have the tape portion of it. Not only does a player have to meet the predefined standards, but they also have to perform, according to the requirements of the position, on the football field. Donte Moncrief is a really nice player, but there is one thing that really pops at me with him and that is how he catches the football. Moncrief is a body catcher. Buyer beware, but the risk could end in a huge reward.

[Sorter]

Originally Posted by Mugsy

For me it has to be hands. Everything else is great but if you can't catch you can't "receive."

Blackbob is officially (disclaimer: OldSchool might be Blackbob as well) back! Mugsy was his handle on the Coalition.










Bummer he'll be banned in about 15 minutes.

[Sfeihc]

Originally Posted by Sorter

Blackbob is officially (disclaimer: OldSchool might be Blackbob as well) back! Mugsy was his handle on the Coalition.

crow would make a heck of an addition to the CP mock.










Bummer he'll be banned in about 15 minutes.

crow would make a heck of an addition to the CP mock.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

The most important statistic for a WR is having Peyton Manning throwing you the ****ing ball !

[saphojunkie]

I think it's going to be Jordan Matthews.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

I think it's going to be Jordan Matthews.

That's where I can see Dorsey making an "upside" pick due to Matthews' superior measurables and work ethic. Beckham's value is also in his ability to return kicks though, so he could just as easily be the pick. Either guy will be fine starting from the slot in their rookie year and eventually transitioning out to the perimeter.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Sfeihc

crow would make a heck of an addition to the CP mock.

if ya'll need a warm body to fill a spot, let me know.

[Rudy tossed tigger's salad]

Calvin and Evans. Interesting.

Edit: wrong thread. McShay mock

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

That's where I can see Dorsey making an "upside" pick due to Matthews' superior measurables and work ethic. Beckham's value is also in his ability to return kicks though, so he could just as easily be the pick. Either guy will be fine starting from the slot in their rookie year and eventually transitioning out to the perimeter.

I think Beckham is probably the #3 WR on a lot of boards now. Gone before #23.

[Mugsy]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Jace Amaro. Problem solved.

I can't see us taking a TE in the first round. We have three TEs that are in the mold of what Reid had in Philadelphia. I think it's more about Reid's offense than it is about finding Alex Smith another Vernon Davis. Plus, the wide receivers that will be there at #23 have a lot more talent.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I think Beckham is probably the #3 WR on a lot of boards now. Gone before #23.

Yeah, doesn't have the red flags that Lee had last season and he is bigger than Cooks. People also see him as a better play maker than Cooks. My rankings would go:

1. Watkins
2. Evans
3. Beckham
4. Lee
t-5. Matthews
t-5. Cooks