***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[R Clark]

If this country had to pull together like they did in the Second World War we would all be speaking German or Japanese

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, states are constantly learning from other states, and trying to predict what will happen and how quickly it'll happen is largely guesswork. Even with so much data, there are a lot of variables that go into play... population density, use of public transportation, the adoption of masks, what each city deems necessary to close down, etc.

You want to act early enough, but not too early... you have to balance the economy and people's jobs and ways of life with death and hospital capacity and healthcare worker sanity, etc.

And then you're asking politicians of all people to just figure it out themselves.

I don't think it's asking a lot to expect your leaders to have a plan when they make such announcements. Give details, not just anecdotal stuff. Have a plan.

This is what we are doing.
This is why we are doing it.
This is what we want to see from our actions.
This is how long we think it might take.
This is what will be the criteria we use to decide if we achieved our goal or not.

That's called having your shit together. That's what a leader should do. I didn't hear shit from the Ks Gov on that. All I heard was "we pulled the trigger, now we will tell you in a few days what we think we are aiming for"....AGAIN.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by R Clark

If this country had to pull together like they did in the Second World War we would all be speaking German or Japanese

It's 100% social media antics, man.

Germany made very strong efforts to affect the public opinion when it came to entering WW2 and thereafter. It had an effect on the public and split people's opinions with decent success. It wasn't enough, obvioulsy.

Can you imagine what they would do with Twitter and Facebook?

[R Clark]

Pete, you’re smart enough to know you can’t put a timeline on this shit.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by R Clark

Pete, you’re smart enough to know you can’t put a timeline on this shit.

It's not about time. It's about numbers/data.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by R Clark

Pete, you’re smart enough to know you can’t put a timeline on this shit.

Yeah, actually you can. Now will the timeline change? Possibly. If your goal was not met. But then you would have to actually have a stated goal and a way to measure it.

See where I am going with this? You put the order in place because X. So what do you need to see to go back to Y?

Have some actual stated metrics, you know?

Examples could be, the percentage of increased cases in x amount of time

or

Number of cases in a specific area


These are not unfathomable things. What we heard today was cases are going up and it appears to be going up where masks are not worn. Okay, fair enough. You mandate masks everywhere. Until what? What is it you need to see before you think it's okay to ease that restriction or turn it back over to the locals?

Point is, stating a goal helps on a number of fronts. It re-assures people this isn't just something without end. It also can encourage participation as well. And you have to be ****ing consistent about it. Which means you can't excuse 1,000's rioting in the streets then get pissy because people go to a bar.

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by Pants

It's 100% social media antics, man.

Germany made very strong efforts to affect the public opinion when it came to entering WW2 and thereafter. It had an effect on the public and split people's opinions with decent success. It wasn't enough, obvioulsy.

Can you imagine what they would do with Twitter and Facebook?

You’re absolutely right. The nightmare IMO starts in time of need. Rationing fuel, tires, nylon, silk, etc.. not to save their own life (like COVID), but to provide for a greater good war effort meant something completely different in 1942.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I don't think it's asking a lot to expect your leaders to have a plan when they make such announcements. Give details, not just anecdotal stuff. Have a plan.

This is what we are doing.
This is why we are doing it.
This is what we want to see from our actions.
This is how long we think it might take.
This is what will be the criteria we use to decide if we achieved our goal or not.

That's called having your shit together. That's what a leader should do. I didn't hear shit from the Ks Gov on that. All I heard was "we pulled the trigger, now we will tell you in a few days what we think we are aiming for"....AGAIN.

Yeah, I was actually saying similar things in March, and I think those 5 things summarize it well.... reminds me, I read a study a while back that said people are more likely to comply when given any reason, no matter how obvious and unhelpful. For example, someone cutting you in line at the bank* and saying "I'm in a hurry".... or even just "I need to deposit this", versus nothing at all, causes people to be more understanding.

Timelines in this situation do suck... they could say "reevaluate in 2 weeks", even though people will obviously hear what they want to hear and get antsy if you say that for 6 weeks in a row.

Being in IT, it's a living to have a plan without really having a plan... turning "uh, yeah try that" into a beautifully crafted current state/"plan"/made-up-ETA. Granted, my audience isn't a couple million people.



*obviously a while back, as I remember the example they used and now don't remember the last time I needed to enter a bank

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, I was actually saying similar things in March, and I think those 5 things summarize it well.... reminds me, I read a study a while back that said people are more likely to comply when given any reason, no matter how obvious and unhelpful. For example, someone cutting you in line at the bank* and saying "I'm in a hurry".... or even just "I need to deposit this", versus nothing at all, causes people to be more understanding.

Timelines in this situation do suck... they could say "reevaluate in 2 weeks", even though people will obviously hear what they want to hear and get antsy if you say that for 6 weeks in a row.

Being in IT, it's a living to have a plan without really having a plan... turning "uh, yeah try that" into a beautifully crafted current state/"plan"/made-up-ETA. Granted, my audience isn't a couple million people.



*obviously a while back, as I remember the example they used and now don't remember the last time I needed to enter a bank

Being in IT myself I can totally relate. And yes, they did do that in March and I gave them a pass for a few because no one really knew what was what. And they did keep extending the timelines but largely for no good reason. The KC area never got hit like they feared but they kept extending the timelines based on NY. That has a lot to do with why people are a bit bitter now.

As for your reference to give people a reason, it works because you are acknowledging to the person that you have inconvenienced them or otherwise wronged them and you know it and are apologetic about it. What I heard from the KS Gov today was largely "**** you". She turned things over to the local counties weeks ago and now is acting like she wants to be in charge again. That's BS in and of itself for one.

And I hate to keep going back to to it but I think a large amount of people adopted a "**** this shit" attitude when riots in the streets were being tolerated and in some cases encouraged and otherwise excused but they were being told they couldn't get their hair cut.

Now suddenly you want people to pay attention to Covid again when for the last month it has been largely dismissed or excused so people to trash the cities.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, I was actually saying similar things in March, and I think those 5 things summarize it well.... reminds me, I read a study a while back that said people are more likely to comply when given any reason, no matter how obvious and unhelpful. For example, someone cutting you in line at the bank* and saying "I'm in a hurry".... or even just "I need to deposit this", versus nothing at all, causes people to be more understanding.

Timelines in this situation do suck... they could say "reevaluate in 2 weeks", even though people will obviously hear what they want to hear and get antsy if you say that for 6 weeks in a row.

Being in IT, it's a living to have a plan without really having a plan... turning "uh, yeah try that" into a beautifully crafted current state/"plan"/made-up-ETA. Granted, my audience isn't a couple million people.



*obviously a while back, as I remember the example they used and now don't remember the last time I needed to enter a bank

Being in IT myself I can totally relate. And yes, they did do that in March and I gave them a pass for a few because no one really knew what was what. And they did keep extending the timelines but largely for no good reason. The KC area never got hit like they feared but they kept extending the timelines based on NY. That has a lot to do with why people are a bit bitter now.

As for your reference to give people a reason, it works because you are acknowledging to the person that you have inconvenienced them or otherwise wronged them and you know it and are apologetic about it. What I heard from the KS Gov today was largely "**** you". She turned things over to the local counties weeks ago and now is acting like she wants to be in charge again. That's BS in and of itself for one.

And I hate to keep going back to to it but I think a large amount of people adopted a "**** this shit" attitude when riots in the streets were being tolerated and in some cases encouraged and otherwise excused but they were being told they couldn't get their hair cut.

Now suddenly you want people to pay attention to Covid again when for the last month it has been largely dismissed or excused so people to trash the cities.

[petegz28]

So here is some actual data and hopefully indicative of things to come...

At no point since Worldometers started tracking this have we had rising cases and declining deaths until this last couple weeks. You can look back to mid-March and see throughout we had rising deaths with rising cases and both tended to peak at the same time and come down together.

Since June 13th when you saw the first indication of rising cases, deaths have continued their downtrend while cases have shot up to even higher levels than before.

I hope to God that this is the prevailing trend. At this point though this is now becoming a clear divergence from what we saw back in March\April with NY.

Or another way of looking at it, the 7 day moving average of new deaths has been making new lows since June 14th.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So here is some actual data and hopefully indicative of things to come...

At no point since Worldometers started tracking this have we had rising cases and declining deaths until this last couple weeks. You can look back to mid-March and see throughout we had rising deaths with rising cases and both tended to peak at the same time and come down together.

Since June 13th when you saw the first indication of rising cases, deaths have continued their downtrend while cases have shot up to even higher levels than before.

I hope to God that this is the prevailing trend. At this point though this is now becoming a clear divergence from what we saw back in March\April with NY.

Or another way of looking at it, the 7 day moving average of new deaths has been making new lows since June 14th.

Yeah, that is the best trend we can hope for and I hope it continues and never stops.

I was getting a pretty good feeling about this thing but started to get a little more anxious after AZ, TX, FL, and CA saw explosions. Seeing that these explosions are not translating to deaths is a very good sign so far.

I know deaths lag behind new cases, but still, it's a good sign for now.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by cdcox

That isn't the conclusion of the study. The conclusion is that if you looked at the ages of 1000 people who were in the hospital with the flu and compared it to 1000 people in the hospital with Covid 19, the average age of the covid group would be lower. In other words, the study concludes that age is a bigger factor in hospitalizations with flu than for covid. Same with co-morbidities.

I understand, but for the under 35 group you're more likely to be hospitalised from the flu? According to that info. I think I'm looking at it right.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pants

Yeah, that is the best trend we can hope for and I hope it continues and never stops.

I was getting a pretty good feeling about this thing but started to get a little more anxious after AZ, TX, FL, and CA saw explosions. Seeing that these explosions are not translating to deaths is a very good sign so far.

I know deaths lag behind new cases, but still, it's a good sign for now.

We are at a real crux right now. I expect to see deaths rise a bit just because we have such an increase in cases. My fear is every 1 increased death will be touted like 100 because there are interests in blowing up the increased cases\decreased deaths scenario.

I don't think we are going to be anywhere near where we were with NY. I think we will see increased cases for various reasons and while we may see a rise in deaths it will not be on par with what we saw with NY. We were seeing around 30kish cases a day with 2kish deaths a day. We are already at 45kish cases and aren't even close to 1kish deaths let alone 2k.

That being said we are going to see in the next few days.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

I understand, but for the under 35 group you're more likely to be hospitalised from the flu? According to that info. I think I'm looking at it right.

I didn't really read it but it's not a secret to say the flu kills across a broader age spectrum than Covid so I think you can assume that more younger people are hospitalized for the flu than Covid.

[Pitt Gorilla]

How are we, as Americans, ****ing this up so badly?