Top 5 Pick Success Rate

[MIAdragon]

I got this emailed to me today and thought Id share. IDK anything about Mays but I like numbers.



http://sportsfountainhead.blogspot.c...cess-rate.html
Top 5 Pick Success Rate

Originally published by me at Draft Tek.


The debate rages on! Actually, this debate happens nearly every year. QBs are hot commodities; everyone wants to find the next Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, or John Elway. In the 2009 Draft we are left with three prospects considered elite and possible first rounders: Matt Stafford (Georgia), Mark Sanchez (USC), and Josh Freeman (Kansas State). Generally speaking, Stafford and Sanchez are viewed as Top 10 picks - as Draft Tek Correspondent Mike Schottey pointed out here. However, our model and correspondents seem to disagree on team needs and the talent available compared with other mocks, “experts”, and you, the readers.

Let’s look at this using statistics. What are the odds that a player taken in the Top 5 will become an All Pro/Pro Bowl-caliber performer? Looking at 43 seasons of data (1966 through 2008, or the “Super Bowl Era”) we get these percentages for each position:

QB - There have been 39 taken in the Top 5 since 1966. Of those only 4 (~10%) have been named 1st Team All Pro with 20 (~51%) making the Pro Bowl at least once. But when using a high draft pick you’re not expecting someone to make the Pro Bowl once, you expect multiple trips - like an average of once every three seasons. That brings down the list to 11 out of 39 (~28%). Basically, 1 out of every 4 QBs selected in the Top 5 will really be worth that status and be “franchise” QBs. But because of sample size there are some outliers. Here is the list of the 10 “franchise” QBs drafted since 1966: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Drew Beldsoe, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Donovan McNabb, Vince Young, Philip Rivers, and Bob Griese. Vick and Young? Not viewed in that light anymore. There’s also the some young QBs that could fall off and not have prolonged success: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and Philip Rivers. Assuming those three maintain their high level of play over the last three years that really leaves us with 9 out of the 39 (~23%) QBs that were Top 5 picks who are/were truly worthy of the “franchise” label; someone you’d actually want to take in the Top 5. As of now, 4 of the 39 (~10%) have been elected to the Hall of Fame (Troy Aikman, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, and Bob Griese). There will be at least one more joining them after Peyton manning retires. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~23%

RB - There have been 34 selected Top 5 since 1966, with 13 (~38%) being selected 1st Team All Pro at least once. 20 of the 34 (~59%) have made at least one Pro Bowl. Going back to the “1 Pro Bowl for every 3 years as a starter” rule, we’re left with 16 “franchise” RBs, which is ~47%. Of those 16, 3 have/had 5 or less years of playing experience (Billy Sims, Ronnie Brown, and Brent Fullwood) so their sample size comes into question. We’ll keep them in but I wanted to point that out. Anyway, of those 16 “franchise” RBs, 6 have made the Hall of Fame (Earl Campbell, O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Barry Sanders, and Walter Payton). Most likely two more will join them in the near future (Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson). FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~47%

WR - There have been a mere 16 taken in the Top 5 in the last 43 drafts. Only 3 of them (~19%) have made 1st Team All Pro, all only once. However, 10 of the 16 (~63%) have made at least one Pro Bowl. Expanding to our”franchise” requirement of 1 Pro Bowl every 3 years as starter leaves 7 of the 16 (44%). One of them, though, is Desmond Howard, more known for his return skills than for his receiving skills. He has only one accrued season as a WR (according to Pro Football Reference, where all these stats are from) and during it he made the Pro Bowl (most likely as a returner). We’ll throw him out, leaving 6 of the 16 (~38%). Three of the six have 5 or less years as a starter but are all young players (Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson). We’ll say they stay on their current pace and keep them in. It is interesting to note that none of the 16 Top 5 picks have been elected to the Hall of Fame… and it may not happen until Edwards, Fitzgerald, and Johnson hang it up for good. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~38%

TE - There has been only one TE taken in the Top 5, Riley Odoms (Houston) by Denver in 1972. He was a 10-year starter, made 1st Team All Pro twice, and was selected to 4 Pro Bowls. He was a success by my measure but the overall sample size is too small. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: N/A


OT - There have been 24 selected Top 5 since 1966. Of the 24, 8 have been named to the All Pro 1st Team (~33%) and 14 have made at least one Pro Bowl (~58%). Using the “1-every-3″ rule for a true franchise player we’re left with 11 out of 24, which is ~46%. Two of those 11 are young (Jake Long and Joe Thomas) but are viewed as perennial Pro Bowl players so they will remain in the group. There are currently 2 HOF Top 5 tackles - Ron Yary and Anthony Munoz. They’ll be joined by Jonathan Ogden and Orlando Pace in the coming years (and possibly Chris Samuels). FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~46%


OG - There have been 7 taken in the Top 5 in the last 43 drafts. Though I’d like to have at least 10 players for this analysis, I’ll go ahead with the OGs anyway. Four of the 7 made the All Pro 1st Team at least once. The same 4 made the Pro Bowl on multiple occasions. And all 4 count as “franchise” guards by making at least 1 Pro bowl every 3 years: Bill Fralic, Tom Mack, John Hannah, and John Niland. Mack and Hannah are in the HOF. It’s a small sample size but the position looks promising. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~57%

OC - Like the TE position, OCs are not normally selected high. There has been only one OC taken in the Top 5 in the “Super Bowl Era”, Bob Johnson (Tennessee) by the Bengals in 1968. He was the #2 overall pick, just behind HOF Tackle Ron Yary. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: N/A

DE - 34 have been selected in the Top 5 since 1966. Of those 34, only 10 have made an All Pro squad (~29%) with 13 making at least one Pro Bowl (~38%). Following my “franchise player rule” results in 10 elite players, which is again ~29%. Mario Williams is the youngest “franchise” player. We’ll keep him on the list because he has shown the skills necessary for a perennial Pro Bowl performer. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~29%


DT - Since 1966, 17 players have been selected Top 5. Of the 17, 7 (~41%) have made the All Pro 1st Team and 9 (~59%) have made at least one Pro bowl. However, only 5 ( are considered a “franchise” player and worthy of a Top 5 pick. Two of the 17 have made the Hall of Fame (Randy White and Joe Greene). It’s possible Cortez Kennedy could join them soon. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~29%

LB - There have been 26 taken in the Top 5 since 1966. ~39% have made the All Pro 1st Team (10 of 26) while 14 have made at least one Pro Bowl appearance (~54%). Satisfying the “franchise” player and justifying their draft position has been done so by 10 players, or ~39%. Two currently reside in the Hall of Fame (Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas). In about 5 years Junior Seau will join them. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~39%

DB - Unfortunately Pro Football Reference doesn’t distinguish between cornerbacks and safeties so we have the ambiguous “defensive back” category. In the last 43 drafts only 16 DBs have been taken in the first 5 selections. Five of the 16 have been named to the All Pro 1st Team (~31%) and 10 have made at least one Pro Bowl (~63%). Once again five justify their draft position by reaching the limits for a “franchise” player. Only one (Mike Haynes) has made the HOF, though he may be joined by Deion Sanders and/or Charles Woodson in the future. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~31%

K/P - No kickers or punters have been selected in the Top 5 of any draft since 1966 (though one K did go #6 overall; Charlie Gogolak from Princeton by the Redskins in 1966). FINAL SUCCESS RATE: N/A

So there is a statistical analysis of players picked in the Top 5 of any draft during the “Super Bowl Era”. What does it tell us? Well here’s a quick reminder of the success rates:

QB: ~23%
RB: ~47%
WR: ~38%
TE: N/A
OT: ~46%
OG: ~57%
OC: N/A
DE: ~29%
DT: ~29%
LB: ~39%
DB: ~31%
K/P: N/A


The safest positions to draft early seem to be offensive lineman. The OG group had a small sample size but the highest success rate and OT had the 3rd highest success rate. RBs had the 2nd highest rate. That really is not a surprise. It has been said for years that the easiest position to fill through the draft is RB because there is little change from their duties in college to those in the NFL. Want the safe pick? Go with a RB or OG/OT. But stay away from… QBs and defensive lineman! They had the worst success rate at fulfilling the “franchise” label and earning their Top 5 pick paycheck. WRs and LBs can be decent picks too.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR 2009?

This really doesn’t apply to just 2009 but for any draft. Teams in the Top 5 should not go for QBs because they are more miss then hit and they can set back and already dismal frnachise another 5-10 years. The 2009 QB class is already considered weak so why reach for someone now when there are many more needs to fill? I say grab that OT (like Joe Thomas in ‘07 and Jake Long in ‘08 ) or stud RB; the future dividends could be huge. Detroit, St. Louis, and Seattle should all be thinking “OT” with their 1st pick. There are at least three that could go in the Top 5 and statistically speaking they are less likely to bust then QBs. Add in a can’t-miss WR in Michael Crabtree and you should know who the Top 4 are come April 25. In no particular order it should be Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, and Michael Crabtree.

This in no way means a QB should never be taken. There are going to be times when a team may actually be a QB away from contending. Maybe a team had some injuries and bad luck the prior year and just need a QB. Whatever the case may be. It seems that scouts, front office personnel, and fans put the QB position on such a high pedestal that when one doesn’t go early it’s a travesty. Stafford, Sanchez, and Freeman are not Top 10 picks. 1st round, most likely. They would have much better value between picks 15-25 than Top 5. If a QB-needy team like Detroit or Kansas City really wants one, they can maneuver to get him there. Just not at 1 or 3.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

This is just a snapshot and isn't enough info to make any claims. You're looking at success rate without looking at value. OG had the highest success rate - but you can get an OG later in the draft and still have a pretty good success rate. However, when you look at other positions like QB, DT, etc. the success rate drops off much more. Therefore, while an OG might be the 'safer' pick it is not a good value pick because you can get one later. Whereas a QB might have a lower top-5 success rate - the rate in lower rounds gets lower and lower and lower.

Basically elite skill position players will always have a larger boom or bust ratio. Thats why they are valued.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Personally I always find things like this funny because it never takes into account who the players are.

The position of WR has a high bust rate, if this was Calvin Johnson I'd be like sure take him but it's Michael Crabtree you have to adjust for the players.

It's basically a guy doing a giant stats breakdown to tell us that we shouldn't take a QB because god forbid he might bust.

I agree here. There are going to be busts at every position. The reason that there are more QB busts is that more teams reach for what is known to be the most important position on the field.

Busts are caused most often when teams have a need and then reach for that need as opposed to drafting better players at less of a need position.

GM's aren't above rationalizing the talent that is there is what they need. And, clearly fans aren't, as evidenced by all the support for Sanchez.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by arc

To be intellectually honest, he should have broken the percentages down in all areas of the draft, too. Who's to say that the top 5 isn't the safest spot to get a QB, percentage-wise, than anywhere else in the draft, despite the low number?

Top five should be safest spot in the draft to pick ANY position. It is when you have your pick of everyone in the draft class. The percentages would go down with any position as you drop in the draft.

[DaKCMan AP]

Originally Posted by SensibleChiefsfan

Top five should be safest spot in the draft to pick ANY position. It is when you have your pick of everyone in the draft class. The percentages would go down with any position as you drop in the draft.

Some positions drop off at a higher rate than others.

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by SensibleChiefsfan

Top five should be safest spot in the draft to pick ANY position. It is when you have your pick of everyone in the draft class. The percentages would go down with any position as you drop in the draft.

Which is exactly what I was implying. Just because the number is low (29% or whatever) doesn't mean it isn't much worse later.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

This is just a snapshot and isn't enough info to make any claims. You're looking at success rate without looking at value. OG had the highest success rate - but you can get an OG later in the draft and still have a pretty good success rate. However, when you look at other positions like QB, DT, etc. the success rate drops off much more. Therefore, while an OG might be the 'safer' pick it is not a good value pick because you can get one later. Whereas a QB might have a lower top-5 success rate - the rate in lower rounds gets lower and lower and lower.

Oh, for crying out loud.... What this shows is that, despite the inane bleatings of Mecca and company on this issue, quarterback is the most likely position to be a wasted pick if the player is taken in the top 5. It doesn't mean that no QB taken in the top 5 will ever pan out. The asinine notion that people are "scared" because they don't want to piss away a top 5 pick on a QB that they don't think will succeed against the odds is just taking hit after hit.

As for value, what the hell is the 'value' of failure? What's the longterm value of drafting Ryan Leaf?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Oh, for crying out loud.... What this shows is that, despite the inane bleatings of Mecca and company on this issue, quarterback is the most likely position to be a wasted pick if the player is taken in the top 5. It doesn't mean that no QB taken in the top 5 will ever pan out. The asinine notion that people are "scared" because they don't want to piss away a top 5 pick on a QB that they don't think will succeed against the odds is just taking hit after hit.

As for value, what the hell is the 'value' of failure? What's the longterm value of drafting Ryan Leaf?

It is not surprising whatsoever that the logic of that post was completely lost on you.

You wonder why I say you're afraid to pick a QB, and you launch in to diatribes like this.

We had a poll in the draft forum a week or so ago. Potential percentiles were assigned for each position, 98, 90, and 80, meaning that a QB with an 80 would have the potential to be better than 4/5 of the league.

Every person who voted picked 3 "players".

Who are you picking in that case, and why?

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=202444

[SenselessChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

Some positions drop off at a higher rate than others.

The other part of this is that there is MORE opportunity for nearly every other position than QB.

There is only one starting QB in the NFL.

Guys get better with experience and a QB doesn't get on the field unless he is the best QB on the roster.

A WR gets on the field as the fourth best WR. A linebacker can get playing time on special teams and situational defense. An OT, may move to guard.

The third or fourth corner would get time on the field. The third or fourth safety can get time on the field.

That is why, to ME, experience in college is a very important piece of the QB picture. Mainly, it will be very tough for that QB to overcome a lack of experience in the NFL.

Because it is very hard to get a QB experience when he gets to the NFL if he isn't ready.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by arc

Which is exactly what I was implying. Just because the number is low (29% or whatever) doesn't mean it isn't much worse later.

To me, that is just logic. It is worse for all positions.

The risk is also much less.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It is not surprising whatsoever that the logic of that post was completely lost on you.

More irony from you.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You wonder why I say you're afraid to pick a QB, and you launch in to diatribes like this.

I don't wonder why you say I'm afraid to pick a QB. I could care less why you say it. Having seen the depth of your football knowledge, your seal of approval is nowhere on my list of desired things.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

We had a poll in the draft forum a week or so ago. Potential percentiles were assigned for each position, 98, 90, and 80, meaning that a QB with an 80 would have the potential to be better than 4/5 of the league.

Every person who voted picked 3 "players".

Who are you picking in that case, and why?

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=202444

Couldn't care less, and I'm not going to let you sidetrack the issue. Despite your claim, I fully understood the 'logic' of DaKCMan AP's post. It's just piss poor logic. You know... your specialty. Again, what was the long-term value of the Ryan Leaf pick?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by SensibleChiefsfan

The other part of this is that there is MORE opportunity for nearly every other position than QB.

There is only one starting QB in the NFL.

Guys get better with experience and a QB doesn't get on the field unless he is the best QB on the roster.

A WR gets on the field as the fourth best WR. A linebacker can get playing time on special teams and situational defense. An OT, may move to guard.

The third or fourth corner would get time on the field. The third or fourth safety can get time on the field.

That is why, to ME, experience in college is a very important piece of the QB picture. Mainly, it will be very tough for that QB to overcome a lack of experience in the NFL.

Because it is very hard to get a QB experience when he gets to the NFL if he isn't ready.

No one is debating any of that, with the exception of the last part of your post....yeah, it's difficult to get him in-game, on-field exp., but that doesn't mean that film study and working with the 2nd and 3rd teams offer no benefits. If they didn't, teams would just throw rookies to the wolves.

With regards to the first, the lack of good QBs and the difficulty in finding one is precisely why we are arguing for one of these two quarterbacks. They have all the tools that you could want for a franchise signal caller, and since we all lack precognition, we're going to have to take a leap of faith that they will work out at the NFL level, because going on what we know, they have the skillset that very few other people on this earth do.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

More irony from you.



I don't wonder why you say I'm afraid to pick a QB. I could care less why you say it. Having seen the depth of your football knowledge, your seal of approval is nowhere on my list of desired things.



Couldn't care less, and I'm not going to let you sidetrack the issue. Despite your claim, I fully understood the 'logic' of DaKCMan AP's post. It's just piss poor logic. You know... your specialty.

You do an excellent job of nailing yourself to the cross without ever taking a stand on any issue.

You're like a jaded woman. You bitch just to bitch. You don't offer any kind of analysis, you just rag ass all the time.

And regarding my football knowledge, I guaran****ingtee that the overwhelming majority of posters on this board would take mine over yours.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You do an excellent job of nailing yourself to the cross without ever taking a stand on any issue.

You're like a jaded woman. You bitch just to bitch. You don't offer any kind of analysis, you just rag ass all the time.

And regarding my football knowledge, I guaran****ingtee that the overwhelming majority of posters on this board would take mine over yours.

Oh.....make that a poll.

PhilFree

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You do an excellent job of nailing yourself to the cross without ever taking a stand on any issue.

You're like a jaded woman. You bitch just to bitch. You don't offer any kind of analysis, you just rag ass all the time.

And regarding my football knowledge, I guaran****ingtee that the overwhelming majority of posters on this board would take mine over yours.

Your football knowledge isn't quite nonexistent, but my dog probably knows more than you've shown in the past month or so. And the irony of you claiming that I "rag ass" all the time was yet another fun little tidbit in your post.

Do you even realize what an idiot you make yourself out to be?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by philfree

Oh.....make that a poll.

PhilFree

I'm not cluttering up the board with yet another stupid ****ing thread. If someone else wants to do it, fine.