Alex Smith's 2nd year looks alot like Trent Green's 2nd yr w/Chiefs

[cmh6476]

stat-wise and Because we are the Chiefs and DKTM

Trent Green 2002 (32 years old)
287/470 - 61.1% 3,690 yards 26 TDs 13 INTs

Alex Smith 2014 (30 years old)
303/464 - 65.3% 3,265 yards 18 TDs 6 INTs

Well sans the TDs but Green only had 17 in 2001 and Smith had 23 in 2013.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

The numbers look similar if you don't compare them to the rest of the league.

Trent Green had the 4th highest QB rating in 2002 with that 92.6. Alex Smith was 13th with 93.4.

Compared to his league, Trent Green's performance was a standout performance. Compared to his league, Alex Smith was mediocre.

Now this would be a valid point: comparing them vs the league median.


dls6501: Here you go with rating = value = wins again. SMFH. As you can see above DLS, there was a simple way to challenge my point.

[ODESSABRONC]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

When KC traded for Alex, I wrote a post about how I would have been more worried about playing KC if they had gotten Tebow rather than Alex.

I stand by that.

Denver didn't win games because Tebow could light it up throwing the ball. They won with the formula of keeping games close with good defense, special teams, and running the ball. But when Denver would get down by more than 10 points it was generally a disaster. Oh btw as you may recall the Chiefs beat the Broncos the last week of the season in Denver the year Tebow quarterbacked the team. Tebow threw for a whopping 60 yards. Nice kid but he didn't have the skills to be a NFL quarterback.

That aside, Tebowites made tons of excuses for Tebow poor play.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by ODESSABRONC

Denver didn't win games because Tebow could light it up throwing the ball. They won with the formula of keeping games close with good defense, special teams, and running the ball. But when Denver would get down by more than 10 points it was generally disaster.

Sounds familiar...

[dls6501]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

dls6501: Here you go with rating = value = wins again. SMFH. As you can see above DLS, there was a simple way to challenge my point.

Your point was challenged in the other thread, and you ignored it.

Simply put, Alex's passer rating is an absolute mirage which is inflated by his high completion percentage and lack of throwing interceptions....where as other high passer ratings are due to touchdown passes and other forms of actual production.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by dls6501

Your point was challenged in the other thread, and you ignored it.

Simply put, Alex's passer rating is an absolute mirage which is inflated by his high completion percentage and lack of throwing interceptions....where as other high passer ratings are due to touchdown passes and other forms of actual production.

Alex is 13th in passer rating. He's 23rd in total QBR. Split it down the middle and call him the 18th best QB in the league if you like.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by dls6501

Your point was challenged in the other thread, and you ignored it.

Simply put, Alex's passer rating is an absolute mirage which is inflated by his high completion percentage and lack of throwing interceptions....where as other high passer ratings are due to touchdown passes and other forms of actual production.

I wouldn't exactly call that a "challenge" since research on the topic doesn't distinguish **how** you derive your rating.


If you can find something that does segment it by YPA vs low int %, I'll definitely read it.

[RunKC]

Alex behind that OL would have 30 TD's. Hell a lot of QB's would have 30 TD's with that OL.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Alex behind that OL would have 30 TD's. Hell a lot of QB's would have 30 TD's with that OL.

Woah, woah, woah.

Let's not start talking crazy. 30 TD's is two a game for our gunslinger.

[ODESSABRONC]

Originally Posted by Pablo

Alex is 13th in passer rating. He's 23rd in total QBR. Split it down the middle and call him the 18th best QB in the league if you like.

Which makes him a second tier quarterback at best. The kind that teams generally keep around only until they find one that's better.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Alex behind that OL would have 30 TD's. Hell a lot of QB's would have 30 TD's with that OL.

In today's environment, or that one? In the 2002 environment, I strongly doubt that.

In today's environment, Jamaal Charles probably runs for 1800-2000 yards and Knile Davis adds 500-600. I'd suspect most of the TD production would go there.

Alex would have a lot more opportunities to take deep shots after play-action, though...

Originally Posted by Pablo

Alex is 13th in passer rating. He's 23rd in total QBR. Split it down the middle and call him the 18th best QB in the league if you like.

Sounds pretty much correct to me.

[dls6501]

Originally Posted by ODESSABRONC

Which makes him a second tier quarterback at best. The kind that teams generally keep around only until they find one that's better.

I am not agreeing or disagreeing that Alex is the 18th best QB in the NFL.

But I will disagree with the idea that the 18th best QB in the NFL is considered a second tier QB. The second tier is for players like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger. The 18th best QB couldnt hold these player's jock straps.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Der Flöprer

Just remember, if you bitch about him having no line, you're acting the same way you did with Matt Cassel.

BUT IT'LL BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME!

Isn't it okay to make note of the crap offensive line? Also not much in the receiving corps? Sure, Alex Smith is not great by any means. I just feel that it's hard to make an honest evaluation considering the other factors. Most everyone thought he looked great in the playoff game. He has obviously regressed since then but I wonder if he can get back to that with the proper talent around him. Is it okay to be rational and look at all the factors? Alex Smith is no great QB by any means. But neither do I think that he's the flaming turd that the irrational haters think.

Also, Alex Smith is no Trent Green. Green was definitely a better QB.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by dls6501

I am not agreeing or disagreeing that Alex is the 18th best QB in the NFL.

But I will disagree with the idea that the 18th best QB in the NFL is considered a second tier QB. The second tier is for players like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger. The 18th best QB couldnt hold these player's jock straps.

Romo and Ben had pretty great years as well. They're probably still career second tier guys; but can elevate their game and have tier one seasons.

Alex isn't capable of that.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Some key points when making this comparison:

Many have already mentioned the change in league-wide approach and passing yardage. That's a big factor. It's a much more pass-happy league now than it was then. Trent was 7th in passing yardage with that season. He would have been 15th this season. Big difference. There were 4 4000 yard passers in 2002. There were 11 this year.

But let's talk about YPA. Trent Green averaged 7.85 YPA which is almost a full yard better than Alex Smith this year and WAS THE TOP YPA IN THE LEAGUE. Smith ranked 24th this year with his paltry 7.03 YPA.

Trent Green did this with Eddie Kennison as his top WR and Marc Boerigter as his No. 2 WR, so it's not like he had a premium stable of stallions to throw the ball to, either. (He did, however, have Tony Gonzalez - though Kelce topped Gonzalez in catches, yards, and yards/catch).

Don't knock Kennison. As I recall he had 2 or 3 straight 1000 yards (or close to it) receiving seasons. He was a 1st rounder that didn't do so well in his first couple of stops. But make no mistake, he was a good WR.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by ODESSABRONC

Denver didn't win games because Tebow could light it up throwing the ball. They won with the formula of keeping games close with good defense, special teams, and running the ball. But when Denver would get down by more than 10 points it was generally a disaster. Oh btw as you may recall the Chiefs beat the Broncos the last week of the season in Denver the year Tebow quarterbacked the team. Tebow threw for a whopping 60 yards. Nice kid but he didn't have the skills to be a NFL quarterback.

That aside, Tebowites made tons of excuses for Tebow poor play.

I'm not saying Tebow was a good QB.

However, he had 6 fourth quarter comebacks in 14 starts.

Alex has 14 fourth quarter comebacks in 105 starts.