Chiefs **** OFFICIAL comprehensive Chiefs playoff scenario thread **** - Page 4

ILChief · 12-13-2010, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Odds of the Chargers winning each of their games according to the efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.com:

SF 90%
@Cinn 83%
@Denver 83%

Gives SD a 62% chance for winning out.

The efficiency ratings gave SD an 80% chance of beating the Chiefs on Sunday.

The team efficiency ratings don't account for special teams and SD has lost 3 games on special teams plays alone. If SD keeps making bone head plays on special teams we can expect them to have a lower chance of winning out.

what does it say about our 3 remaining games?

**cdcox** · 12-13-2010, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ILChief

what does it say about our 3 remaining games?

@StL 76%
Tenn 62%
Oak 77%

To win out: 36%

**Saul Good** · 12-13-2010, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Odds of the Chargers winning each of their games according to the efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.com:

SF 90%
@Cinn 83%
@Denver 83%

Gives SD a 62% chance for winning out.

The efficiency ratings gave SD an 80% chance of beating the Chiefs on Sunday.

The team efficiency ratings don't account for special teams and SD has lost 3 games on special teams plays alone. If SD keeps making bone head plays on special teams we can expect them to have a lower chance of winning out.

Those numbers are way off. You'll never see Vegas put anything near 10:1 on a football game.

**cdcox** · 12-13-2010, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Those numbers are way off. You'll never see Vegas put anything near 10:1 on a football game.

A money line of 300 is very near a 90% certainty of the favorite winning. There are lines like that every week.

**Saul Good** · 12-13-2010, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

A money line of 300 is very near a 90% certainty of the favorite winning. There are lines like that every week.

A money line of 300 is 3:1 less the vig.

**cdcox** · 12-13-2010, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

A money line of 300 is 3:1 less the vig.

Think about the payouts on both sides of that bet and get back to me. And there is no vig on a money line. It's built into the line.

Pioli Zombie · 12-13-2010, 08:12 PM

How about this? How about the Chiefs winning their last 3 winnable games.

WebGem · 12-13-2010, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pioli Zombie

How about this? How about the Chiefs winning their last 3 winnable games.

We're going at least 2-1. The way I see it we have 6 games and we have to go 3-3. The Chargers 3 games the opponent plays for us, and then our 3 games. I like our chances.

Fumblerooski · 12-13-2010, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

We're going at least 2-1. The way I see it we have 6 games and we have to go 3-3. The Chargers 3 games the opponent plays for us, and then our 3 games. I like our chances.

Interesting Perspective... I like it

**alnorth** · 12-13-2010, 08:43 PM

Here's our tiebreaker position if we finish 10-6 and one other possible team finished 10-6. (If we are 11-5, who cares, and if we are 9-7 our chances are remote) These are just head to head, as mentioned earlier, if this is a 3-way tie it gets really complicated.

NE - cant beat - W/L (there is no tie to break)
Colts - cant beat - head to head
Pitt - cant beat - we lose on conference
SD - cant beat - (use div tiebreaker) we lose on common opp.
Jets - cant beat - we can only tie on conference, then we lose on common opp.
Miami - can beat - we could tie on conference and common opp., then it gets to the weird tiebreakers
Baltimore - can beat - we could win, lose, or tie on both conference and common opp. If Baltimore wins tonight, the best we can do is tie both tiebreakers, then it gets to the weird tiebreakers.
Jags - will beat - head to head

**alnorth** · 12-13-2010, 09:25 PM

Here's a very basic look at two of the easier 3-way tiebreakers if SD wins the division and we finish 10-6 along with two other clubs.

I only came up with two general rules of thumb where I discovered that we definitely lose; we cant beat Pittsburgh or the Jets under any circumstances, even if its 3-way or 4-way. After these two scenarios it just gets too speculative with no useful information coming out of it. This would become more useful after next week.

Even though we lost to the Colts, we could possibly beat them in some 3-way tiebreakers. We definitely would lose a 4-way tiebreaker unless it includes Miami from the East and Baltimore from the North. (in that case, it would be unlikely but not impossible) The sweep tiebreaker is not in play because we did not play against Pitt, Baltimore, the Jets, or Miami, and we cant be in a 3-way with both the Jets and Miami, so begin at 3-way tiebreaker #3.

Pitt & anyone - we lose - conference This one is pretty simple to understand.
Jets & not Pitt - we lose - at best we can only tie on conf. if conf. is tied, we then definitely lose on common opp. Every loss by the Jets was to an opponent we did not and will not play, except Buffalo. In every scenario, our losses to the Broncos and to the Texans will both count (Jets, Baltimore, Jags, and Colts all have both teams on schedule), and the most losses the Jets could possibly have would be to Buffalo if they lost that game and the loss was counted.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 12-13-2010, 10:20 PM

Something seems off if the Tennessee game, which is the worst remaining team on our schedule (both by record and trend) is the one with our lowest chance to win.

**alnorth** · 12-13-2010, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Something seems off if the Tennessee game, which is the worst remaining team on our schedule (both by record and trend) is the one with our lowest chance to win.

Interesting.

Could be a weird pythagorean issue. Thats more of a baseball concept than football since we're only looking at 13 games here, but Tennessee has scored more points than they have allowed. Their points scored and allowed are almost exactly equal to ours, in fact. That suggests that the Titans may be better than their record.

**cdcox** · 12-13-2010, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Interesting.

Could be a weird pythagorean issue. Thats more of a baseball concept than football since we're only looking at 13 games here, but Tennessee has scored more points than they have allowed. Their points scored and allowed are almost exactly equal to ours, in fact. That suggests that the Titans may be better than their record.

Pythagorean wins works pretty good for football, even with the small sample size.

**DaFace** · 12-13-2010, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Something seems off if the Tennessee game, which is the worst remaining team on our schedule (both by record and trend) is the one with our lowest chance to win.

The efficiency ratings include all plays for the entire season, so they don't know that Vince Young is out, for example.

12-13-2010, 08:12 PM	#7
Pioli Zombie Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: olathe,kansas Casino cash: $10004900	How about this? How about the Chiefs winning their last 3 winnable games.
Posts: 11,077

12-13-2010, 08:43 PM	#10
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	Here's our tiebreaker position if we finish 10-6 and one other possible team finished 10-6. (If we are 11-5, who cares, and if we are 9-7 our chances are remote) These are just head to head, as mentioned earlier, if this is a 3-way tie it gets really complicated. NE - cant beat - W/L (there is no tie to break) Colts - cant beat - head to head Pitt - cant beat - we lose on conference SD - cant beat - (use div tiebreaker) we lose on common opp. Jets - cant beat - we can only tie on conference, then we lose on common opp. Miami - can beat - we could tie on conference and common opp., then it gets to the weird tiebreakers Baltimore - can beat - we could win, lose, or tie on both conference and common opp. If Baltimore wins tonight, the best we can do is tie both tiebreakers, then it gets to the weird tiebreakers. Jags - will beat - head to head __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry Last edited by alnorth; 12-13-2010 at 08:49 PM..
Posts: 36,130

12-13-2010, 09:25 PM	#11
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	Here's a very basic look at two of the easier 3-way tiebreakers if SD wins the division and we finish 10-6 along with two other clubs. I only came up with two general rules of thumb where I discovered that we definitely lose; we cant beat Pittsburgh or the Jets under any circumstances, even if its 3-way or 4-way. After these two scenarios it just gets too speculative with no useful information coming out of it. This would become more useful after next week. Even though we lost to the Colts, we could possibly beat them in some 3-way tiebreakers. We definitely would lose a 4-way tiebreaker unless it includes Miami from the East and Baltimore from the North. (in that case, it would be unlikely but not impossible) The sweep tiebreaker is not in play because we did not play against Pitt, Baltimore, the Jets, or Miami, and we cant be in a 3-way with both the Jets and Miami, so begin at 3-way tiebreaker #3. Pitt & anyone - we lose - conference This one is pretty simple to understand. Jets & not Pitt - we lose - at best we can only tie on conf. if conf. is tied, we then definitely lose on common opp. Every loss by the Jets was to an opponent we did not and will not play, except Buffalo. In every scenario, our losses to the Broncos and to the Texans will both count (Jets, Baltimore, Jags, and Colts all have both teams on schedule), and the most losses the Jets could possibly have would be to Buffalo if they lost that game and the loss was counted. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry Last edited by alnorth; 12-13-2010 at 09:32 PM..
Posts: 36,130

12-13-2010, 10:20 PM	#12
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7129572	Something seems off if the Tennessee game, which is the worst remaining team on our schedule (both by record and trend) is the one with our lowest chance to win. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
Posts: 75,083