Analyzing Tyreek Hill's improbable tying TD

[RunKC]

So I watched NFL films version of this game and got a few gif's. While watching this, it really made me realize how crazy and fortunate we were on the Tyreek Hill tying TD play.
Looking more in depth revealed some important (even critical) details:

1. Roby should have been called for PI. He hit Hill's helmet and grabbed his left shoulder area. I honestly have no idea how Hill caught this ball.
Roby flies over him and nearly bats the ball but barely misses. I don't know how the hell Hill saw the ball and grabbed it. It was a low pass with Roby right in his line of vision along with his head being hit. It's incredible that he caught this ball in the first place, but it was actually a good thing that this happened bc of where the ball was when Hill had control, thus the overturn of the call. Here's a few gifs showing this:





2. I didn't realize until today that Denver's DL Jared Crick actually tipped the ball. The ball was barely low enough and had enough velocity to make it to Hill without being batted away by Roby.



I don't think this pass is complete without the tip. It looks like it would have been higher and Roby would have got it. Another crazy circumstance that went our way.

3. Finally, seeing the entire play unfold, it was obvious that this was a designed 1 read to Hill. Alex looked at Hill the entire time from the time the ball was snapped.
Look at the bottom. Kelce is wide ****ing open. He clearly beat Darian Stewart by at least 2 steps. It wasn't even close. It would have been as easy TD.



The bottom routes by Kelce and Wilson were basically the exact play design Seattle ran when they lost the SB. That's a damn hard route to stop, especially against Kelce.

It worked and we won, but I really wish Alex would have changed Andy's play design and looked to Kelce. Everyone knew it was a blitz, however Kelce was by far the biggest matchup for us pre-snap.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Lzen

I don't think you can say that for certain.

I don't think you can say it at all. It's 4 yards away; a pretty steep change in angle out of his hand will still only change where the ball ends by a foot or two over that short a span.

It's ****ing pulling teeth to get any credit for the guy at all around here.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think you can say it at all. It's 4 yards away; a pretty steep change in angle out of his hand will still only change where the ball ends by a foot or two over that short a span.

It's ****ing pulling teeth to get any credit for the guy at all around here.

Which teeth?

[DJ's left nut]

Here's the only thing I can figure on Smith's read - he liked having Conley as the inside WR and fall back option more than Wilson.

If the DBs sniff that play out and crash on the slant, that's easy to diagnose and hit the fade in the back corner. If you're throwing that pass, you'd far prefer to throw it to Conley over Wilson, no? Granted, throwing it to Wilson on the wide side of the field sure gives you more room for error than Conley on the short side, but on the short side Conley's catch radius may actually give you a bit of an advantage in tight spaces. Then again, if neither work, having the other side of the formation giving you the wide side as a 3rd option may allow the timing to actually function. If you look to Kelce then Wilson and neither are there, Conley and Hill's routes are all but done. Whereas working from left to right gives you Hill then Conley then perhaps Wilson still. The timing on each respective route should you need to advance through progressions plays a part in where you start those progressions.

I dunno; best I've got. Like most of you, the pre-snap read there suggests that Kelce is the better option to me. Just trying to see what Smith may have seen. Without knowing where their LBs started vs. where they were at the snap, that's the best I can do. I don't think he really thought "Man, **** that Kelce guy"; there had to be a reason for it.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well, I think him not playing freely is alot of his own mentality so I'm not sure what can fix that.

One option is to go no huddle earlier. Alex seems more effective with pace and he can work off less of a script.

But I agree much of the problem would still be mental. We can debate all we want about this one read on this one play, but it sure seems that Alex presses on passes in late games that he'd be too afraid to throw earlier in the game. Don't know how many times in a game I saw him flinch as if he was going to throw, then pull back and take a sack a few seconds later. I wish we could turn that switch off but I doubt we can.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

If Smith is given 1 on 1 coverage then you stick with the intended target and trust them to run the route. Historically, Smith is most accurate throwing middle or left.

Now if a safety is playing in coverage then you go thru your reads.

This scenario is much much different than the Tampa interception where Reid admitted it was a one read play designed to draw the safety in to stop Ware, except the safety stayed in coverage... Whoops

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

And reek catches the ball in both scenarios, tipped or not. His ability to track is phenomenal

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

One option is to go no huddle earlier. Alex seems more effective with pace and he can work off less of a script.

But I agree much of the problem would still be mental. We can debate all we want about this one read on this one play, but it sure seems that Alex presses on passes in late games that he'd be too afraid to throw earlier in the game. Don't know how many times in a game I saw him flinch as if he was going to throw, then pull back and take a sack a few seconds later. I wish we could turn that switch off but I doubt we can.

His first throw downfield in the last drive of regulation (to Kelce, IIRC) looked like a little kid getting his training wheels taken off.

He really seemed terrified but then just let it fly anyway. Ever see a kid when he peddles for a bit and is wobbly as all hell but doesn't fall down? That was that throw. "Holy shit - I'm doing it, I'M DOING IT!!!!"

I feel like he clutched 3 times before he let that ball go. Maybe it's less like a kid on a bike and more like a toddler taking his first steps without having a hand on a table. He just did not want to take that hand off until he decided 'eh, I guess I'm pot committed now, might as well..."

I'm still pretty floored by how awful he was until that last drive of regulation. It was bad enough that I refuse to believe it was all his fault - NOBODY can be that bad on their own. Of course he was a big part of it, but he had help from Reid, IMO.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

If Smith is given 1 on 1 coverage then you stick with the intended target and trust them to run the route. Historically, Smith is most accurate throwing middle or left.

Now if a safety is playing in coverage then you go thru your reads.

This scenario is much much different than the Tampa interception where Reid admitted it was a one read play designed to draw the safety in to stop Ware, except the safety stayed in coverage... Whoops

Also, since he locks his front leg a little and it was a 3-step drop, the ball will come out just a heartbeat quicker and with a tick more velocity to his left.

Hadn't really thought about the mechanics of his feet there, but the short drop and bang/bang timing may have made the left side the best side in the event he gets the same look in both directions. If he goes right, he has to reset at the back of his drop to take his left foot back over his right and fire. It's just a little more cumbersome.

Not a big deal in the grand scheme but when your look is the same both directions, its just one more consideration.

[TripleThreat]

Originally Posted by Simply Red

I never noticed Kelce so open - sheesh...

Same, However Someone I think that is smarter than me on the subject of football, since when i played in highschool I played LB and sucked at offense, said that our play was a one-read play, which I remember alex doing this EXACT throw with the 49ers in that crazy playoff game with the ballin saints, so I wonder if Reid and Co went to alex's bread and butter. But yeah kelce was wide open I said that a few pages back, but I also think it was like another said, the matchups were alot more favorable for the Hill throw, since Talib was on kelce.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TripleThreat

Same, However Someone I think that is smarter than me on the subject of football, since when i played in highschool I played LB and sucked at offense, said that our play was a one-read play, which I remember alex doing this EXACT throw with the 49ers in that crazy playoff game with the ballin saints, so I wonder if Reid and Co went to alex's bread and butter. But yeah kelce was wide open I said that a few pages back, but I also think it was like another said, the matchups were alot more favorable for the Hill throw, since Talib was on kelce.

I wish I could see where Talib was lined up. Perhaps he was shading inside more (though he sure ate shit on that little shimmy that Kelce likes to throw at guys; bit HARD on the possible out).

Another thing to look at is that jab step that Hill gave Roby - shit that's a thing of beauty. Roby's actually shading him inside just a tick but when Hill makes his break he gives a hard shoulder fake and outside jab step to break in. It doesn't fool Roby much but it's just enough to essentially put them square. At that point, Hill's athleticism just beats Roby's.

Man, the more I watch Hill closely, the more I understand why he's earning trust from Reid and Smith. He does a lot of the little things right and with very little experience.

[TimBone]

Originally Posted by TripleThreat

shut up, just because you like the quarterback of your favorite team, doesnt make you an alex fan, the said person is still a chief fan. This shit is getting really old...

better sentence structure would be I dont ever want to hear anyone mention that alex's interception against the Buc's was tipped.... Rather than making your stupid ass sentence immediately an argument with the "alex fan" comment.

Except you showed up when Alex showed up. Pushed that 9er jersey to the back of your closet. Thats not a Chiefs fan.

[TripleThreat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I wish I could see where Talib was lined up. Perhaps he was shading inside more (though he sure ate shit on that little shimmy that Kelce likes to throw at guys; bit HARD on the possible out).

Another thing to look at is that jab step that Hill gave Roby - shit that's a thing of beauty. Roby's actually shading him inside just a tick but when Hill makes his break he gives a hard shoulder fake and outside jab step to break in. It doesn't fool Roby much but it's just enough to essentially put them square. At that point, Hill's athleticism just beats Roby's.

Man, the more I watch Hill closely, the more I understand why he's earning trust from Reid and Smith. He does a lot of the little things right and with very little experience.

Yeah the kids a BEAST, I want to say hes better than sproles is/was, and if hes not, he will definitely be bettter than sproles ever was after a year or two max.

[jettio]

It was shotgun formation. Considering the pass rush, Alex would not have had any time to watch Hill and Kelce and decide who to throw to.

If he looked to Kelce, it looks like it would have been a makeable TD, but Alex would have needed different footwork and you never know how that would have impacted the pass rush and sight lines for the throw.

It was a safe play to throw to Hill, the only risk was completion short of goal line, that almost happened, but the linesman and the umpire did a terrible job of getting the ball ready for play. that ball should have been set with 5 seconds on the clock considering that it was a three yard completion and Tyreek Hill handed the ball to the linesman.

The QB has to watch the ball to catch the snap from center. If you are at the 3 yd. line down by 8 and Wade Phillips is D-coordinator who knows he can not lose game on the play if he sends pressure, you are not likely to run a play that does not have a presnap decision.

[mikeyis4dcats.]

Originally Posted by jettio

It was shotgun formation. Considering the pass rush, Alex would not have had any time to watch Hill and Kelce and decide who to throw to.

If he looked to Kelce, it looks like it would have been a makeable TD, but Alex would have needed different footwork and you never know how that would have impacted the pass rush and sight lines for the throw.

It was a safe play to throw to Hill, the only risk was completion short of goal line, that almost happened, but the linesman and the umpire did a terrible job of getting the ball ready for play. that ball should have been set with 5 seconds on the clock considering that it was a three yard completion and Tyreek Hill handed the ball to the linesman.

The QB has to watch the ball to catch the snap from center. If you are at the 3 yd. line down by 8 and Wade Phillips is D-coordinator who knows he can not lose game on the play if he sends pressure, you are not likely to run a play that does not have a presnap decision.

The re-set took so long because everyone but I think the ref at the sideline thought it was a touchdown and wasn't in a hurry.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jettio

It was shotgun formation. Considering the pass rush, Alex would not have had any time to watch Hill and Kelce and decide who to throw to.

If he looked to Kelce, it looks like it would have been a makeable TD, but Alex would have needed different footwork and you never know how that would have impacted the pass rush and sight lines for the throw.

It was a safe play to throw to Hill, the only risk was completion short of goal line, that almost happened, but the linesman and the umpire did a terrible job of getting the ball ready for play. that ball should have been set with 5 seconds on the clock considering that it was a three yard completion and Tyreek Hill handed the ball to the linesman.

The QB has to watch the ball to catch the snap from center. If you are at the 3 yd. line down by 8 and Wade Phillips is D-coordinator who knows he can not lose game on the play if he sends pressure, you are not likely to run a play that does not have a presnap decision.

Forgot it was shotgun; that's just a one step and throw then. Makes the left side even more desireable rather than having to take that crow hop to get your shoulders turned.

Starting to come together a bit...