Peter King: You have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one

[Deberg_1990]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl.../?sct=uk_wr_a1





You'd probably have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one. That's the year Peyton Manning eschewed the prospect of going to the Jets first overall to play for Bill Parcells and returned for his senior year at Tennessee. One quarterback (shaky Jim Druckenmiller, 26th) picked in round one. Two backs (Warrick Dunn 12th and Antowain Smith 23rd) in round one, and four receivers in the first: Ike Hilliard seventh, Yatil Green 15th, Reidel Anthony 16th and Rae Carruth 27th. Yikes! What a horrible draft for point-producers. One star, Dunn, out of seven first-rounders.

That could repeat this year. It's likely Alabama's Eddie Lacy will be the only running back taken in round one. Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson leads the muddled pack at wide receiver, but how sure can you really be of junior-college transfers who play one year of major-college football, which is Patterson's profile?

The quarterbacks are a total mish-mosh at this point. One GM interested in acquiring a quarterback this offseason told me over the weekend, "I expect more attention on the quarterbacks throwing this year than on any other single thing at the Combine.'' Some think Geno Smith of West Virginia will go first overall to quarterback-needy Kansas City; one personnel man who studied all the top quarterbacks for a team in need of one last fall told me, "There's not one quarterback, including Smith, I would take in the first round."

Two points about that. If you need a quarterback, you can talk brave in February, but when reality sets in around draft day, and you haven't picked up a quarterback in free agency, all of a sudden the zits on Smith, Matt Barkley and other others don't seem as bad. And we're nine and a half weeks from round one. There's no way that Andy Reid and John Dorsey, the coach and GM for Kansas City, know what they're doing now. They need time to investigate and to watch tape on the eight or 10 quarterbacks.

But in some ways, 2013 should be a catchup year for the other positions. Opening day 2013 could feature 12 starting quarterbacks drafted in 2011 and '12; that's far, far above the norm in a game that values veteran arms at the position.

Now for a couple of notes about players at the Combine.

Alec Ogletree. The underclass inside linebacker from Georgia would be a clear top-10 pick with a clean resume. But he was suspended the first four games of last season for failing an offseason drug test, and then came the news Saturday night, via ProFootballTalk.com, that Ogletree recently was pinched for driving while intoxicated.

Ogletree and agent Pat Dye were smart to come out and beat the police blotter to the punch. As for the damage done by the arrest, Ogletree, who is a speed demon for an inside player, the kind of player who, if right, would be a perfect fit as a rare three-down inside linebacker for any team, has to convince teams they shouldn't be worried about a player who has tested positive, been suspended, and gotten a DWI in the span of about nine months.

Some GM is going to stake his reputation on Ogletree in the first round, most likely. Which GM? It would have to be a secure one. Green Bay's Ted Thompson or de facto GM Bill Belichick of the Patriots or Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome, all down near the bottom of the round.

Manti Te'o. The Notre Dame linebacker has spent a lot of time practicing football and practicing what he's going to say to teams. His last game, against Alabama, was a nightmare (he was awful, and overpowered), and then the whole fake girlfriend story came up, making him a national story and, in some quarters, a national joke. It won't matter much how he works out in Indianapolis. What will matter are the 15-minute interviews he'll have in formal evening sessions with teams, and in less formal settings, seeing coaches and personnel people at the stadium and around his hotel.

No men have more on the line, off the field, at the Scouting Combine than Ogletree and Te'o.

Finally, three players I'll be watching at the Combine, three with question marks and debatable upsides:

1. Quarterback Sean Renfree, Duke. No one's talking about him, but he completed 70 percent of his throws in six of 12 games for David Cutcliffe last fall, was a comeback specialist, and has the pedigree in a good pro-style offense to play early. Could he be more than a late-round flyer, this year's Ryan Lindley? We'll see.

2. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, Florida State. A 6-2 cornerback in a league demanding cover guys who can play on islands more and more? Scouts want to see if Rhodes, who is a heady player with good bump skills at the line of scrimmage, has the speed to stay with fast wideouts. If so, he'll be a top-half-of-the-first-round player.

3. Running back Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. After his devastating dislocated knee and torn knee ligaments in October, Lattimore, considered a certain first-rounder before the injury, is still in recovery mode. His surgeon, James Andrews, told Lattimore recently that he's going to shock the world. "I hear he's working out great,'' said Mayock. Lattimore believes he'll be healthy enough to start the 2013 NFL season. Is he's a fourth-round minefield pick? Or might some team desperate for a back go for him a round earlier -- or even late in the second round?



Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2LLwcLLId

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by jAZ

I would expect more from you. See my last post for why.

I'll bet I've watched more snaps of Geno and Tyler Wilson than Reid has.

I really don't care what you expect from me.

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

what's the point of a message board where you're constantly told to "be quiet, you're not a real GM"?

should we just discuss beer (even though we aren't real brewers)?

I"m not saying be quiet. I'm saying have fun, but if you start to take your (barely informed) opinions very seriously, you're trying too hard.

Measure outcomes (wins, losses) and don't get too wrapped up in the day to day details even if you follow them passionately like we do here.

It's still possible and rational to want one thing and recognize that if the professionals come to the same conclusion, that doesn't make you a genius and if they professionals disagree it doesn't make them idiots.

[the Talking Can]

Originally Posted by jAZ

Andy Reid is good.

yes, at pawning off backup QBs for picks...a desirable trait

and that has nothing to do with issue of drafting a franchise QB, or the fact that Reid's success has come with a QB drafted #2...

or that you take yourself more seriously than anyone on this board, to the point is hilarious...it's obvious you feel neglected in your professional life

and you're a bore

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I'll bet I've watched more snaps of Geno and Tyler Wilson than Reid has.

I really don't care what you expect from me.

Maybe, but I'm certain that you haven't ever built an NFL offense, or coached an NFL QB. And I'm all but sure that none of those snaps were NFL scouting film with all of the moving parts visible.

So what you watch doesn't have any context.

That you would not appreciate that without having it pointed out... is surprising, honestly. I don't typically think of you as being among the group of fans who take themselves overly seriously.

But as you rightly point out, you don't (and probably shouldn't) care much for what I say. The only thing I know is that I don't know.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by jAZ

Maybe, but I'm certain that you haven't ever built an NFL offense, or coached an NFL QB. And I'm all but sure that none of those snaps were NFL scouting film with all of the moving parts visible.

So what you watch doesn't have any context.

Pioli had complete access to every Matt Cassel snap ever and was completely reeruned over him.

Fallacious appeals to authority don't jive.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I'm not slamming Alex Smith to justify Geno Smith.

I'm slamming Alex Smith because he DESERVES IT.

His brief 20-game stint under Harbaugh is the EXCEPTION for his career, not the rule.

There is zero reason, other than blind faith, to believe he'll recreate 2011-2012 once he's removed from the Harbaugh environment.

Nonsense.

First off, his "brief 20 game stint" was actually 26 games in a career that is only 80 games long. In other words, that 'brief stint' was actually the latter 1/3 of his career, which just so happened to coincide with the beginning of his athletic prime.

Beyond that, he put up solid numbers in 2009 and 2010 under Singletary as well. That was coming off a serious shoulder injury and with the most overmatched head coach in football running the show.

Yeah, he had a lousy start to his career. But for 4 consecutive seasons he's improved. His decisionmaking is strong, his accuracy is above average. He's mobile in the pocket and he is a good leader.

If you start from his 2010 baseline, then adjust it for things he has actually learned under Harbaugh, as well as working under a HC that actually knows how to run an offense and can work to his strengths, why is it crazy to think he couldn't improve by about 10% from where he was pre-Harbaugh?

If he does, that puts his passer rating in the high 80s. Again, it's not elite, but yes you can win with that guy. All he's lacking is a cannon of an arm but he does a lot of other things extremely well.

I remain hopeful that this is just a visceral reaction from you that's really just a back-alley defense of Geno Smith. Otherwise you're left with simply talking out your ass. There is ample evidence to suggest that Alex Smith can be a solid QB in this league.

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

yes, at pawning off backup QBs for picks...a desirable trait

and that has nothing to do with issue of drafting a franchise QB, or the fact that Reid's success has come with a QB drafted #2...

or that you take yourself more seriously than anyone on this board, to the point is hilarious...it's obvious you feel neglected in your professional life

and you're a bore

Those players played far better for AR then anywhere else. AJ Feeley won games and put the Eagles into the playoffs.

I'm sure I'm a bore. Deferring to AR on the QB position is a lot less interesting than making a fuss over a college QB that lots of people publicly question. But trusting AR on finding a QB that he can win games with is historically a great bet. Far better bet than anything anyone on here says, over time. That is boring though, I'll admit.

[KevB]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I'm not slamming Alex Smith to justify Geno Smith.

I'm slamming Alex Smith because he DESERVES IT.

His brief 20-game stint under Harbaugh is the EXCEPTION for his career, not the rule.

There is zero reason, other than blind faith, to believe he'll recreate 2011-2012 once he's removed from the Harbaugh environment.

I'm not going to argue for Alex, but I will say is that "brief" 20 months was also his most recent 20 months. Perhaps experience and maturity are a part of his recent success? I would also very much like to believe that the Harbaugh environment isn't much better than the Reid environment when it comes to quarterbacks.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by jAZ

It's still possible and rational to want one thing and recognize that if the professionals come to the same conclusion, that doesn't make you a genius and if they professionals disagree it doesn't make them idiots.

I will agree with you 100% after the Chiefs draft a QB at #1 overall. That's when hardcore professional scouting trumps my hobby.

The issue of taking a QB isn't a matter of scouting. It's a matter of philosophy and principle.

I didn't see you giving John McCain or Mitt Romney a pass. I'm pretty sure you were just fine with saying, "McCain is no different than Bush, which hasn't done very well for the country." You didn't know that. You didn't know what McCain or Romney would be all about and yet you still assumed they would employ the same strategy that you railed against for the last 8 years.

The Chiefs are faced with doing what we've been doing for the past 30 years, not 8. We have the option of going with the strategy that got us into this mess, or we can switch up the strategy and go with something completely different for a bit, and see if that works.

Sorry to inject political dialogue into the main Lounge, but if that's all you understand, then that's the language I'll have to talk.

[tony77]

Originally Posted by Inmem58

He's got a point. This draft class isn't great by any means. Some of you are just blind.

I agree

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by GoWalrus

***** had complete access to every Matt Cassel snap ever and was completely reeruned over him.

Fallacious appeals to authority don't jive.

MC was a far better bet at the time than the alternative being considered in Mark Sanchez. More certainty, less cost. Looking back, they had the same success. And as a result, Matt Cassel was factually a better investment even looking back.

[tony77]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

You mean the same one that rocketed RG3 up to the number 2 spot in the draft.

Smith only played 1 yr in the big 12

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by jAZ

MC was a far better bet at the time than the alternative being considered in Mark Sanchez. More certainty, less cost. Looking back, they had the same success. And as a result, Matt Cassel was factually a better investment even looking back.

Yeah, what about Josh Freeman? ***** failed, hardcore. If he had any idea that Matt Cassel was shitty, he would NEVER have given him 60m.

You are such a shitty homer.

And "looking back" at least Mark Sanchez won playoff games. Matt never came close.

Wrong again, homer.

[tony77]

Originally Posted by jAZ

Drafting to please fans is a really terrible strategy.

You are correct.

[RealSNR]

Matt Cassel also led to the Tyson Jackson pick. Had we used it on a QB, we would have had the #34 pick, which could have been something pretty good. At least it would have been something better than Jackson.

So no. Looking back, the Cassel deal in hindsight was WORSE than drafting Sanchez. Much worse.