Chiefs The race for the #1 seed in the AFC - Page 59

**BossChief** · 11-06-2022, 03:21 PM

With Buffalo losing to NY today, if we beat Tennessee tonight we will be tied for 1st place in the AFC but Buffalo owns the head to head tiebreaker.

It’s going to be interesting to see the energy KC comes out with tonight.

Gary Cooper · 12-30-2022, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

I really think we need the #1 seed or we are really going to struggle to make the Super Bowl. If we have to go to Buffalo or Cinci I dont think we win those games more than 3 out of 10. Something is just not right with this team offensively even though their scoring offense leads the league. Perhaps that is the stalling out on 3rd and short or sometimes in the redzone. I think it all comes down to having shitty tackles and no real #1 WR. Having Toney and Hardman healthy may be the key to what we need though.

We simply can't defend the Bills or Cinci. Their receivers are too good. Imagine Mahomes with those receiving corps? We wouldn't lose.

The Chiefs don't play well with a lead. Reid doesn't coach well when ahead. They lack urgency unless they're losing. That's why all their games are closer than needed. Notice how good the offense looks when they're desperate for a score. They almost always score on the next possession after falling behind two TDs.

Gary Cooper · 12-30-2022, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

The issue for me is less home versus away and more that as the #2 seed we'd likely have to beat both the Bengals and the Bills to make the SB (and of course another team beforehand). If we're #1, we get to skip a game and then likely only have to face 1 of those 2 in the playoffs.

If you want to put some numbers on it and assume all of these outcomes are independent, if we're the #2 seed, I think we get something like a Miami (75% chance of winning) / Cincy (55% chance of winning) / Buffalo (45% chance of winning) draw. And that's an 18.5% chance of making the SB.

If we get the #1 seed, we get a Jaguars (80% chance of winning) / Buffalo or Cincy (60% chance of winning) draw. And that's a 48% chance of making the SB.

And right now, I think the Monday night game is about a toss-up so we're probably 50/50 between the 2 scenarios which gives us like a 30-35% chance of making the SB under those odds. Much better than I would've expected coming into the season!

(ESPN FPI has us at 40% to make the SB: https://www.espn.com/nfl/fpi/_/view/projections)

You believe the Jaguars will beat the Chargers or Ravens? I think the opposite.

TwistedChief · 12-30-2022, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

You believe the Jaguars will beat the Chargers or Ravens? I think the opposite.

There are any number of scenarios, but I think the Jags beat the Ravens in that scenario and I have the Chargers at Buffalo.

I don't think the Jags beat the Chargers.

But the thought of the Chargers/Bills/Bengals knocking each other out with only one remaining warms my soul.

RaidersOftheCellar · 12-30-2022, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Mahomes and the offense generally play better on the road, but the defense plays much better at home.

Plus, hosting another AFC Championship game would be an awesome accomplishment.

Yep. I don’t have the numbers, but I know the defense has been much better at home than on the road. Going back at least a few years. I think they’re allowing under 19 ppg at home this year with pretty low yardage totals, and they’ve played several good offenses.

MahomesIsTheMVP · 12-30-2022, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

The Chiefs don't play well with a lead. Reid doesn't coach well when ahead.

This is so true. Andy turtles up.

Hammock Parties · 12-30-2022, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

The Chiefs don't play well with a lead. Reid doesn't coach well when ahead. They lack urgency unless they're losing. That's why all their games are closer than needed.

Wins by 10+ points

49ers: 9
Cowboys: 7
Eagles: 6
Chiefs: 6
Bills: 6
Bengals: 6
Vikings: 2

The Cowboys have played one more game and the 49ers have played one of the weakest schedules ever.

Whatever dude.

FlaChief58 · 12-30-2022, 11:57 AM

Sucks that we have to wait till mondy night to find out if we're getting the bye

Gary Cooper · 12-30-2022, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Wins by 10+ points

49ers: 9
Cowboys: 7
Eagles: 6
Chiefs: 6
Bills: 6
Bengals: 6
Vikings: 2

The Cowboys have played one more game and the 49ers have played one of the weakest schedules ever.

Whatever dude.

You can play with statistics, but you know I'm right. They lacked killer instinct against the Colts, Broncos, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks. Teams they should have blown out quicker. They had to come from behind to beat the Texans and Titans. They also spotted 10 points to the 49ers and 17 to the Raiders.

This offense plays much better when behind or in a close game. Some offenses are built to play with leads. This isn't one of them.

Hammock Parties · 12-30-2022, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Yep. I don’t have the numbers, but I know the defense has been much better at home than on the road. Going back at least a few years. I think they’re allowing under 19 ppg at home this year with pretty low yardage totals, and they’ve played several good offenses.

18.7 PPG home

That includes some pretty good games against the Bills, Chargers, Jaguars and Seahawks, all in the top 11 on offense.

Hammock Parties · 12-30-2022, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

You can play with statistics, but you know I'm right. They lacked killer instinct against the Colts, Broncos, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks. Teams they should have blown out quicker.

Apparently you can say this about any team in the NFL.

The Eagles barely beat Arizona, Indianapolis, Green Bay, and Chicago and lost to Detroit.

The Bills lost to the Jets, squeaked by Cleveland, Detroit, the Jets and let the Bears hang around until late in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs don't have an issue with this significantly more than any other team, especially considering it's classic Andy Reid and hasn't presented any real issues over the Mahomes era.

It's the NFL. Saying you should blow anyone out, let alone quickly, is not realistic.

RaidersOftheCellar · 12-30-2022, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

18.7 PPG home

That includes some pretty good games against the Bills, Chargers, Jaguars and Seahawks, all in the top 11 on offense.

Raiders are top 10 in points per play too.

I think it might be more important to get the 1 seed this year than most. This young defense needs to feed off Arrowhead.

If you compare the two Bengals games from last year, the defense in KC was much better than the game in Cincinnati. In Cincinnati, they did whatever they wanted, similar to this year. There was a lot more resistance in KC. I’d expect something similar if they come to Arrowhead again. But this time, the offense won’t shit the bed because they’ve had plenty of time to figure out the Bengals’ defense.

Hammock Parties · 12-30-2022, 12:22 PM

our ends need that crowd noise step

Gary Cooper · 12-30-2022, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Apparently you can say this about any team in the NFL.

The Eagles barely beat Arizona, Indianapolis, Green Bay, and Chicago and lost to Detroit.

The Bills lost to the Jets, squeaked by Cleveland, Detroit, the Jets and let the Bears hang around until late in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs don't have an issue with this significantly more than any other team, especially considering it's classic Andy Reid and hasn't presented any real issues over the Mahomes era.

It's the NFL. Saying you should blow anyone out, let alone quickly, is not realistic.

Classic Andy Reid cost the Chiefs a Super Bowl trip last year. Up 18 points in the playoffs and the run game is feasting. How many other coaches blow that scenario? You can blame the 2013 and 2017 playoff meltdowns on Alex Smith and Bob Sutton, but they weren't here last year. Reid is the common denominator.

Hammock Parties · 12-30-2022, 12:46 PM

That wasn't Reid's fault. That was on Mahomes.

Reid called an RPO at the end where Mahomes probably should have handed it off!

Pitt Gorilla · 12-30-2022, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

You can play with statistics, but you know I'm right. They lacked killer instinct against the Colts, Broncos, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks. Teams they should have blown out quicker. They had to come from behind to beat the Texans and Titans. They also spotted 10 points to the 49ers and 17 to the Raiders.

This offense plays much better when behind or in a close game. Some offenses are built to play with leads. This isn't one of them.

Most people refer to that as reality.

11-06-2022, 03:21 PM
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $-1685912	The race for the #1 seed in the AFC With Buffalo losing to NY today, if we beat Tennessee tonight we will be tied for 1st place in the AFC but Buffalo owns the head to head tiebreaker. It’s going to be interesting to see the energy KC comes out with tonight.
Posts: 47,900

12-30-2022, 11:57 AM	#877
FlaChief58 SuperChiefs Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Florida Casino cash: $-1450178	Sucks that we have to wait till mondy night to find out if we're getting the bye
Posts: 21,943

12-30-2022, 12:22 PM	#882
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $890478	our ends need that crowd noise step __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 297,159

12-30-2022, 12:46 PM	#884
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $890478	That wasn't Reid's fault. That was on Mahomes. Reid called an RPO at the end where Mahomes probably should have handed it off! __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 297,159