The "LT or Bust in R1" fallacy - Page 3

**OnTheWarpath15** · 03-30-2008, 12:58 PM

For MONTHS there have been guys that have advocated taking a LT in Round 1, regardless of value or talent.

WHY?

Because many feel that the only way to get a starting LT is to do so in the 1st round.

Apparently, not all NFL teams feel the same. TWENTY teams in the league have starting LT's that were drafted in the 2nd round or later.

That leaves 12 teams, or 37% of the league with a R1 LT.

And here's an interesting note regarding those 12 1st rounders:

Only TWICE in the past ELEVEN years has a draft's 1st round produced more than ONE starting LT.

1997 and 2002.

FOUR of the last EIGHT drafts produced multiple starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

2007 x 3
2005 x 3
2001 x 2
2000 x 3

Coogs · 03-30-2008, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laz

uh ............ what?!?!?

Clady is the 8th ranked player. Down the stretch last season, we had chance to win 3 or 4 football games. We win any one of the three, or maybe all of them, we are picking 8th to the middle teens. We aren't. We are picking 5th. But none the less the 8th rated player in the draft is not that much of a reach for the 5th pick in the draft. Some here would have you think we are selecting a 3rd round player if we take Clady.

Brock · 03-30-2008, 08:11 PM

Who did Clady play against?

Coogs · 03-30-2008, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brock

Who did Clady play against?

The dude is the 8th rank player in the draft, and is listed as the potential top LT in the draft.

Stryker · 03-30-2008, 08:20 PM

At #5 if Jake Long is there - take him if not then BPA!

Ellis, Gholston, Dorsey, Ryan is my hope.

Mr. Laz · 03-30-2008, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

Clady is the 8th ranked player. Down the stretch last season, we had chance to win 3 or 4 football games. We win any one of the three, or maybe all of them, we are picking 8th to the middle teens. We aren't. We are picking 5th. But none the less the 8th rated player in the draft is not that much of a reach for the 5th pick in the draft. Some here would have you think we are selecting a 3rd round player if we take Clady.

so you're saying that Clady would be a bit of a reach.

maybe so

but still, Mr. Warpath is ranting and raving that people want a "left tackle or bust" is some kind of Armageddon manner.

Imo it would be far more accurate for him say that he just disagrees with peoples evaluation of Jake Long and Ryan Clady and be done with it.

some people think Jake Long is worth it .... some don't.

a few people think that Clady is worth it

some think a trade down then Clady would be best.

But i have yet to see anyone say "take any tackle, no matter what"

FTR - i have pointed out the fact that Long and clady haven't faced primo pass rushers for the most part and are rather unproven.

Coogs · 03-30-2008, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laz

so you're saying that Clady would be a bit of a reach.

maybe so

but still, Mr. Warpath is ranting and raving that people want a "left tackle or bust" is some kind of Armageddon manner.

Imo it would be far more accurate for him say that he just disagrees with peoples evaluation of Jake Long and Ryan Clady and be done with it.

some people think Jake Long is worth it .... some don't.

a few people think that Clady is worth it

some think a trade down then Clady would be best.

But i have yet to see anyone say "take any tackle, no matter what"

FTR - i have pointed out the fact that Long and clady haven't faced primo pass rushers for the most part and our rather unproven.

I'd pretty much agree with that whole post.

**Tribal Warfare** · 03-30-2008, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brock

Who did Clady play against?

Hawaii Bitch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

melbar · 03-30-2008, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laz

so you're saying that Clady would be a bit of a reach.

maybe so

but still, Mr. Warpath is ranting and raving that people want a "left tackle or bust" is some kind of Armageddon manner.

Imo it would be far more accurate for him say that he just disagrees with peoples evaluation of Jake Long and Ryan Clady and be done with it.

some people think Jake Long is worth it .... some don't.

a few people think that Clady is worth it

some think a trade down then Clady would be best.

But i have yet to see anyone say "take any tackle, no matter what"

FTR - i have pointed out the fact that Long and clady haven't faced primo pass rushers for the most part and are rather unproven.

Great post. I will say that somewhere in the 1st 2 rounds we would be better off getting an OT. 3rd would be getting sketchy. If the cards fall wrong, you do what you can do and hope someone is dropped after June 1st. How often does that happen?

Brock · 03-30-2008, 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

The dude is the 8th rank player in the draft, and is listed as the potential top LT in the draft.

I'd run away from the question if I were you too.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 03-31-2008, 04:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Let me clear something up.

This isn't about Jake Long. IF, and that's a BIG IF, Jake Long is there at #5, he's possibly the BPA, and I'm fine with taking him.

I think if we all take our homer glasses off, we can all agree that Long falling to the 5 slot is a longshot at best.

Based on that, there are plenty of folks who are hell bent on either trading down to grab Clady or Otah, or worse yet, taking one of them at #5.

That thought process is the epitome of LT or Bust. Passing on a greater talent for a lesser talent, based solely on need alone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laz

so in your expert opinion Jake Long is a guaranteed bust?

because that's who people have been wanting us to take

a few Clady people but

kinda stretching things a bit.......

Did you bother to read this post, Laz?

This isn't about Jake Long.

This is about passing on a greater talent (Ellis, Dorsey, Ryan, etc) to draft a player with lesser talent (Clady, Otah) based solely on NEED.

Chiefnj2 · 03-31-2008, 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

This is about passing on a greater talent (Ellis, Dorsey, Ryan, etc) to draft a player with lesser talent (Clady, Otah) based solely on NEED.

This is about YOUR OPINION that Ryan and Gholston are a better talent than Clady.

Mr. Laz · 03-31-2008, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Did you bother to read this post, Laz?

This isn't about Jake Long.

This is about passing on a greater talent (Ellis, Dorsey, Ryan, etc) to draft a player with lesser talent (Clady, Otah) based solely on NEED.

yes ... but your title says something different.

so which is it ..... is your thread title just inflamatory bullshite or are you splitting hair in a effort to pick a fight?

in YOUR opinion Jake Long won't fall
in YOUR opinion Ryan Clady isn't worth it

but I REPEAT ...... nobody that i've seen is saying "LT or Bust"

Micjones · 03-31-2008, 10:04 AM

No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle.
That's so far from the truth.

If Long's off of the board...
I either:
-Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis
-Draft Matt Ryan
-Trade down

And I'm really warming up to trading down.

R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks
R1. (#22) G Branden Albert
R1. (#29) OT Gosder Cherilus
R2. (#35) CB Antoine Cason
R2. (#63) ILB Curtis Lofton
R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham
R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson
R5. (#127) C John Sullivan
R5. (#131) FB Owen Schmitt
R6. (#171) DE Wallace Gilberry
R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna
R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith

How about it?

Coogs · 03-31-2008, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brock

I'd run away from the question if I were you too.

I didn't run away from it. No matter who the heck he played against, he is still the 8th ranked player in the draft. He isn't ranked 8th with an asterisk because he played for Boise State.

**PHOG** · 03-31-2008, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micjones

No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle.
That's so far from the truth.

If Long's off of the board...
I either:
-Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis
-Draft Matt Ryan
-Trade down

And I'm really warming up to trading down.

R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks
R1. (#22) G Branden Albert
R2. (#35) OT Sam Baker
R2. (#63) CB Charles Godfrey
R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham
R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson
R5. (#127) C John Sullivan
R5. (#131) ILB Jonathan Goff
R6. (#171) FB Jehuu Caulcrick
R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna
R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith

How about it?

HEY, you forgot the 29th pick!

03-30-2008, 12:58 PM
OnTheWarpath15 MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $4811115	The "LT or Bust in R1" fallacy For MONTHS there have been guys that have advocated taking a LT in Round 1, regardless of value or talent. WHY? Because many feel that the only way to get a starting LT is to do so in the 1st round. Apparently, not all NFL teams feel the same. TWENTY teams in the league have starting LT's that were drafted in the 2nd round or later. That leaves 12 teams, or 37% of the league with a R1 LT. And here's an interesting note regarding those 12 1st rounders: Only TWICE in the past ELEVEN years has a draft's 1st round produced more than ONE starting LT. 1997 and 2002. FOUR of the last EIGHT drafts produced multiple starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 2007 x 3 2005 x 3 2001 x 2 2000 x 3
Posts: 60,268

03-30-2008, 08:11 PM	#32
Brock Say hello to my little friend Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Larryville Casino cash: $9598422	Who did Clady play against?
Posts: 47,314

03-30-2008, 08:20 PM	#34
Stryker In Mahomes I trust! Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Baton Rouge, LA Casino cash: $2324636	At #5 if Jake Long is there - take him if not then BPA! Ellis, Gholston, Dorsey, Ryan is my hope. __________________ Super Bowl LVIII Champions!
Posts: 6,013

03-31-2008, 10:04 AM	#43
Micjones Whose house? Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $10005180	No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle. That's so far from the truth. If Long's off of the board... I either: -Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis -Draft Matt Ryan -Trade down And I'm really warming up to trading down. R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks R1. (#22) G Branden Albert R1. (#29) OT Gosder Cherilus R2. (#35) CB Antoine Cason R2. (#63) ILB Curtis Lofton R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson R5. (#127) C John Sullivan R5. (#131) FB Owen Schmitt R6. (#171) DE Wallace Gilberry R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith How about it? Last edited by Micjones; 03-31-2008 at 12:37 PM..
Posts: 15,344