The "LT or Bust in R1" fallacy - Page 4

**OnTheWarpath15** · 03-30-2008, 12:58 PM

For MONTHS there have been guys that have advocated taking a LT in Round 1, regardless of value or talent.

WHY?

Because many feel that the only way to get a starting LT is to do so in the 1st round.

Apparently, not all NFL teams feel the same. TWENTY teams in the league have starting LT's that were drafted in the 2nd round or later.

That leaves 12 teams, or 37% of the league with a R1 LT.

And here's an interesting note regarding those 12 1st rounders:

Only TWICE in the past ELEVEN years has a draft's 1st round produced more than ONE starting LT.

1997 and 2002.

FOUR of the last EIGHT drafts produced multiple starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

2007 x 3
2005 x 3
2001 x 2
2000 x 3

Hoover · 03-31-2008, 10:28 AM

If we can trade down and and get the Cowboys 2 first rounders I think that might be wise, especially if a player we covet is gone.

We need lots of help and having 3 out of the first 35 picks would be huge.

melbar · 03-31-2008, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover

If we can trade down and and get the Cowboys 2 first rounders I think that might be wise, especially if a player we covet is gone.

We need lots of help and having 3 out of the first 35 picks would be huge.

Absolutely. How great would Brandon Albert/Chris Williams, Antoine Cason/Rogers-Cromartie, and James Hardy/Early Doucet by #35 be?
Pick your fav combo...

StcChief · 03-31-2008, 11:03 AM

melbar · 03-31-2008, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StcChief

BPA

Great point...

Micjones · 03-31-2008, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PHOG

HEY, you forgot the 29th pick!

I revised my list a bit.

Coogs · 03-31-2008, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micjones

No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle.
That's so far from the truth.

If Long's off of the board...
I either:
-Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis
-Draft Matt Ryan
-Trade down

And I'm really warming up to trading down.

R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks
R1. (#22) G Branden Albert
R1. (#29) OT Gosder Cherilus
R2. (#35) CB Antoine Cason
R2. (#63) ILB Curtis Lofton
R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham
R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson
R5. (#127) C John Sullivan
R5. (#131) FB Owen Schmitt
R6. (#171) DE Wallace Gilberry
R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna
R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith

How about it?

Nice!

Micjones · 03-31-2008, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

Nice!

The whole right side of our Offensive Line would be set for 10 years.
From Center (Niswanger) to Right Tackle (Cherilus). Sullivan could compete with Niswanger. Whomever loses the job would stick around for depth purposes. We'd have a replacement at each of those three spots.

You'd have your two CB starters (Cason, Jackson) once Surtain hung it up.
And a nice cushion with Nickel (Brackenridge) and Dimeback (Patterson).

Curtis Lofton would likely be a 2nd year starter and take over for Harris.
Your LB trio (Williams, Lofton, Johnson) would be young and very talented.

Schmitt makes a splash right away at FB.
Manningham competes with Darling/Webb for his spot in the WR food chain.

Serna would battle it out with (a hopefully healthy) Cundiff for Placekicking duties. Or you could carry both...

Smith and Gilberry serve as depth on the Defensive Line...

Couldn't ask for anything more.
A QB would've been nice though... Sue me!

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-01-2008, 08:28 AM

Another brilliant example of passing on arguably the best player in the draft, to trade down to take an OT.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=182344

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-01-2008, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micjones

No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle.
That's so far from the truth.

If Long's off of the board...
I either:
-Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis
-Draft Matt Ryan
-Trade down

And I'm really warming up to trading down.

R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks
R1. (#22) G Branden Albert
R1. (#29) OT Gosder Cherilus
R2. (#35) CB Antoine Cason
R2. (#63) ILB Curtis Lofton
R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham
R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson
R5. (#127) C John Sullivan
R5. (#131) FB Owen Schmitt
R6. (#171) DE Wallace Gilberry
R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna
R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith

How about it?

Actually, plenty of people are suggesting the Chiefs reach for a tackle.

Instead of "trade down" being their THIRD option, like you, its their FIRST option, bypassing greater talent on the board.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-01-2008, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

I didn't run away from it. No matter who the heck he played against, he is still the 8th ranked player in the draft. He isn't ranked 8th with an asterisk because he played for Boise State.

He's the 8th rank player according to a few websites.

I'd bet you all the rice in China that he's not in the Top 10 overall on any NFL team's draft board.

Several teams, including the Chiefs, tend to shy away from underclassmen O-linemen. There was an article floating around last year about how NFL teams are looking for guys who have at least 45-50 starts in college, and how guys that don't typically don't succeed in the league. I'll try to find it.

Clady had 37 starts at Boise St, and only 26 of those were actually at LT.

Also, whether people like it or not, he played for Boise ****ing State.

That's wouldn't be that big of a deal had he DOMINATED at Boise State.

He didn't.

Jake Long gets shit on this board for giving up ONE sack, and it was to a guy who's universally a Top 5-6 pick.

Clady was less than dominant against ridiculously inferior competition.

How anyone thinks taking a guy at the 5th pick overall who can't handle those HUGE stars from the likes of Hawaii, Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State is getting value at our pick is baffling to me.

melbar · 04-01-2008, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

He's the 8th rank player according to a few websites.

I'd bet you all the rice in China that he's not in the Top 10 overall on any NFL team's draft board.

Several teams, including the Chiefs, tend to shy away from underclassmen O-linemen. There was an article floating around last year about how NFL teams are looking for guys who have at least 45-50 starts in college, and how guys that don't typically don't succeed in the league. I'll try to find it.

Clady had 37 starts at Boise St, and only 26 of those were actually at LT.

Also, whether people like it or not, he played for Boise ****ing State.

That's wouldn't be that big of a deal had he DOMINATED at Boise State.

He didn't.

Jake Long gets shit on this board for giving up ONE sack, and it was to a guy who's universally a Top 5-6 pick.
Clady was less than dominant against ridiculously inferior competition.

How anyone thinks taking a guy at the 5th pick overall who can't handle those HUGE stars from the likes of Hawaii, Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State is getting value at our pick is baffling to me.

Actually averages more like 7th...
Clady is universally about 9th. Reach and Reach. Again who are you gonna "reach" for?
As much as I get into this discussion, not what I would want. Definately dont want Gholston at 5 either. Less so.
Wouldnt want the Cinci thing either. Better get a second out of that, and It still wouldnt be great.
Dallas trade down is the only decent trade down scenario I've seen, and only if the top 4 are gone. MicJones draft looks good if it fell that way. It would be a great start to the rebuilding process.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-01-2008, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by melbar

Actually averages more like 7th...
Clady is universally about 9th. Reach and Reach. Again who are you gonna "reach" for?
As much as I get into this discussion, not what I would want. Definately dont want Gholston at 5 either. Less so.
Wouldnt want the Cinci thing either. Better get a second out of that, and It still wouldnt be great.
Dallas trade down is the only decent trade down scenario I've seen, and only if the top 4 are gone. MicJones draft looks good if it fell that way. It would be a great start to the rebuilding process.

This is what I don't understand.

One of the following will be available at #5, GUARANTEED.

J. Long
C. Long
Ellis
Dorsey
Ryan

WHY would anyone want to trade down and pass on an elite talent?

There are 7 guys who all could go #1. The 5 I listed above, and McFadden and Gholston.

After that, there's a pretty significant drop in talent.

Staying at 5 guarantees us one of these guys.

Chiefnj2 · 04-01-2008, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

This is what I don't understand.

One of the following will be available at #5, GUARANTEED.

J. Long
C. Long
Ellis
Dorsey
Ryan

WHY would anyone want to trade down and pass on an elite talent?

There are 7 guys who all could go #1. The 5 I listed above, and McFadden and Gholston.

After that, there's a pretty significant drop in talent.

Staying at 5 guarantees us one of these guys.

Why don't YOU understand that not everyone agrees that those 5, or those 7, are the top "elite" talent? People have legitimate questions about Ryan, McFadden and Gholston. (Dorsey also if you are shy about players that have had injuries in college).

**OnTheWarpath15** · 04-01-2008, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Why don't YOU understand that not everyone agrees that those 5, or those 7, are the top "elite" talent? People have legitimate questions about Ryan, McFadden and Gholston. (Dorsey also if you are shy about players that have had injuries in college).

I do understand it, though I think those people either:

1) Don't watch college football

2) Are arguing for the sake of arguing.

There are many, many people here who have never seen these guys play, but take the word of Joe Nobody at www.igotsmeadraftwebsite.com as gospel.

I have a hard time fathoming that anyone who has seen Ryan Clady PLAY, thinks he's worthy of a Top 5 pick over players like Dorsey, Ellis, Ryan or either of the Longs.

Please, enlighten us.

Who are YOUR Top 5 players?

Sully · 04-01-2008, 11:35 AM

All I had to see of Clady was the Hawaii game to let me know he's not elite.
It may be mental, it may be physical. But you don't suck that bad against average (at best) talent, and suddenly turn into an elite NFL player.

03-30-2008, 12:58 PM
OnTheWarpath15 MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $4821115	The "LT or Bust in R1" fallacy For MONTHS there have been guys that have advocated taking a LT in Round 1, regardless of value or talent. WHY? Because many feel that the only way to get a starting LT is to do so in the 1st round. Apparently, not all NFL teams feel the same. TWENTY teams in the league have starting LT's that were drafted in the 2nd round or later. That leaves 12 teams, or 37% of the league with a R1 LT. And here's an interesting note regarding those 12 1st rounders: Only TWICE in the past ELEVEN years has a draft's 1st round produced more than ONE starting LT. 1997 and 2002. FOUR of the last EIGHT drafts produced multiple starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 2007 x 3 2005 x 3 2001 x 2 2000 x 3
Posts: 60,268

03-31-2008, 10:28 AM	#46
Hoover Rufus Dawes Jr. Join Date: Aug 2000 Casino cash: $1468179	If we can trade down and and get the Cowboys 2 first rounders I think that might be wise, especially if a player we covet is gone. We need lots of help and having 3 out of the first 35 picks would be huge.
Posts: 17,381

03-31-2008, 11:03 AM	#48
StcChief Playing for #1 Draft Pick Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Just West of Lambs land Casino cash: $10004900	BPA __________________ sig test for this screwy schema
Posts: 25,901

04-01-2008, 08:28 AM	#53
OnTheWarpath15 MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $4821115	Another brilliant example of passing on arguably the best player in the draft, to trade down to take an OT. http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=182344
Posts: 60,268

04-01-2008, 11:35 AM	#60
Sully It Goes On Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Lees Summit Casino cash: $10026331	All I had to see of Clady was the Hawaii game to let me know he's not elite. It may be mental, it may be physical. But you don't suck that bad against average (at best) talent, and suddenly turn into an elite NFL player. __________________ "And I don't wish that girl any bad luck," he said, "but I hope she gets hit with a car." - Tommy Lasorda
Posts: 18,295