The "LT or Bust in R1" fallacy

[OnTheWarpath15]

For MONTHS there have been guys that have advocated taking a LT in Round 1, regardless of value or talent.

WHY?

Because many feel that the only way to get a starting LT is to do so in the 1st round.

Apparently, not all NFL teams feel the same. TWENTY teams in the league have starting LT's that were drafted in the 2nd round or later.

That leaves 12 teams, or 37% of the league with a R1 LT.

And here's an interesting note regarding those 12 1st rounders:

Only TWICE in the past ELEVEN years has a draft's 1st round produced more than ONE starting LT.

1997 and 2002.

FOUR of the last EIGHT drafts produced multiple starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

2007 x 3
2005 x 3
2001 x 2
2000 x 3

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Sully

All I had to see of Clady was the Hawaii game to let me know he's not elite.
It may be mental, it may be physical. But you don't suck that bad against average (at best) talent, and suddenly turn into an elite NFL player.

He was less than dominant against extremely weak competition.

I can only HOPE the Broncos draft him, so Jared Allen can abuse him for the next 5-8 years.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I do understand it, though I think those people either:

1) Don't watch college football

2) Are arguing for the sake of arguing.


There are many, many people here who have never seen these guys play, but take the word of Joe Nobody at www.igotsmeadraftwebsite.com as gospel.

I have a hard time fathoming that anyone who has seen Ryan Clady PLAY, thinks he's worthy of a Top 5 pick over players like Dorsey, Ellis, Ryan or either of the Longs.

Please, enlighten us.

Who are YOUR Top 5 players?

I've responded to this numerous times. I think there are 3 elite players - 1. Chris Long, 2. Glenn Dorsey and 3. Jake Long.

On the second tier I would put Ellis next and then the following players (not necessarily in order) - Mendenhall, Brohm, Jenkins, Rivers, Connor, Williams and Harvey.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Why don't YOU understand that not everyone agrees that those 5, or those 7, are the top "elite" talent? People have legitimate questions about Ryan, McFadden and Gholston. (Dorsey also if you are shy about players that have had injuries in college).

Those are 7 best players in this draft save Ryan but he is the top rated QB so he is.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

I've responded to this numerous times. I think there are 3 elite players - 1. Chris Long, 2. Glenn Dorsey and 3. Jake Long.

On the second tier I would put Ellis next and then the following players (not necessarily in order) - Mendenhall, Brohm, Jenkins, Rivers, Connor, Williams and Harvey.

Where's Clady?

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Where's Clady?

He'd be on the next level behind guys like Gholston, McFadden, McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

He'd be on the next level behind guys like Gholston, McFadden, McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie.

So we're basically in complete agreement, that the guy is a 15-20 guy at best.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

So we're basically in complete agreement, that the guy is a 15-20 guy at best.

In my opinion he is a 15-20 guy.

In the opinion of the "experts" (who you seem to accept when it is convenient for you with Long, Ryan, McFadden, Gholston, etc.) he is a top 10 guy.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

In my opinion he is a 15-20 guy.

In the opinion of the "experts" (who you seem to accept when it is convenient for you with Long, Ryan, McFadden, Gholston, etc.) he is a top 10 guy.

Convenient for me?

My list has been the same throughout. I don't agree with a lot of what the so-called experts say. I watch as many guys play as possible and then form my own opinions.

McFadden is a great example.

I think Mendenhall and even Felix Jones will have better pro careers than McFadden.

My list, in "tier" form, as you listed yours: (no particular order)

Tier A: C. Long, Dorsey, Ellis, Gholston, J. Long

Tier B: Ryan, Rivers, Mendenhall, Rodgers-Cromartie, C. Williams

Tier C: D. Harvey, Mike Jenkins, McKelvin, Otah, Stewart

[melbar]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

This is what I don't understand.

One of the following will be available at #5, GUARANTEED.

J. Long
C. Long
Ellis
Dorsey
Ryan

WHY would anyone want to trade down and pass on an elite talent?

There are 7 guys who all could go #1. The 5 I listed above, and McFadden and Gholston.

After that, there's a pretty significant drop in talent.

Staying at 5 guarantees us one of these guys.

I would be extremely happy to have any one of those 5. Ryan I can see the argument against Ryan, and I'm 50/50 on him. I'm just saying if those guys are gone and our staff deems Ryan unworthy, by default whoever we would pick sans trading down will be considered a "reach". If we're on the second tier of players and all is relatively =, it becomes a choice of what position do you choose?

[Monty]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Convenient for me?

My list has been the same throughout. I don't agree with a lot of what the so-called experts say. I watch as many guys play as possible and then form my own opinions.

McFadden is a great example.

I think Mendenhall and even Felix Jones will have better pro careers than McFadden.

My list, in "tier" form, as you listed yours: (no particular order)

Tier A: C. Long, Dorsey, Ellis, Gholston, J. Long

Tier B: Ryan, Rivers, Mendenhall, Rodgers-Cromartie, C. Williams

Tier C: D. Harvey, Mike Jenkins, McKelvin, Otah, Stewart

Can't argue with this at all...it really looks accurate IMO.

All along, I've been a "BPA or Bust" person...trading down rarely if ever makes any real sense. If the goal is to build the team, the BPA is always the best route, the only issue is whether the team with the pick actually picks the BPA.

[DaKCMan AP]

Originally Posted by Coogs

First off, I am not on the Otah at #5 bandwagon. BUT... Clady is ranked 8th on almost every scouting report out there, give or take a spot. AND.. (From NFLDraftCountdown)...

Notes:
Redshirted in '04 and then started the next three seasons...Played right tackle as a redshirt frosh and then made a seamless transition to the left side when Daryn Colledge moved on to the pros...Has a rare blend of size and athleticism and was born to protect the quarterbacks blind side...Has all the physical tools you look for and he's the best pure left tackle prospect in this draft...A sure-fire Top 10-15 pick.

Just because some of you don't like him, he is viewed as the poteni=tial best LT in the draft. And Herm has said that is a priority (one I agree with FTR). Granted, it make take a year for the guy to be a great LT... but we have a year to wait. We ain't going to the SB next year anyway.

You have it right there in your own post. Clady is "a sure-fire Top 10-15 pick." When you pick #5 overall you damn well better pick a guy who is "a sure-fire Top 5 pick."

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

You have it right there in your own post. Clady is "a sure-fire Top 10-15 pick." When you pick #5 overall you damn well better pick a guy who is "a sure-fire Top 5 pick."

Exactly.

[melbar]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Convenient for me?

My list has been the same throughout. I don't agree with a lot of what the so-called experts say. I watch as many guys play as possible and then form my own opinions.

McFadden is a great example.

I think Mendenhall and even Felix Jones will have better pro careers than McFadden.

My list, in "tier" form, as you listed yours: (no particular order)

Tier A: C. Long, Dorsey, Ellis, Gholston, J. Long

Tier B: Ryan, Rivers, Mendenhall, Rodgers-Cromartie, C. Williams

Tier C: D. Harvey, Mike Jenkins, McKelvin, Otah, Stewart

No Clady at all?

I pretty much agree with your list except for Gholston and Clady to B and I'd switch Jenkins and McKelvin with Rogers-Cromartie. DRC didnt play in college to the level that his talent is. Sort of like Woolfork a couple of years ago.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by melbar

No Clady at all?

I pretty much agree with your list except for Gholston and Clady to B and I'd switch Jenkins and McKelvin with Rogers-Cromartie. DRC didnt play in college to the level that his talent is. Sort of like Woolfork a couple of years ago.

Nope, no Clady.

There's an explanation in post 55 if you're interested.

While I think that Rodgers-Cromartie is the best CB in the draft, it would be real easy to see any of them be the 1st off the board depending on the team, and the scheme they play.

[melbar]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Nope, no Clady.

There's an explanation in post 55 if you're interested.

While I think that Rodgers-Cromartie is the best CB in the draft, it would be real easy to see any of them be the 1st off the board depending on the team, and the scheme they play.

(post #55) Fair enough. Who do you think is the next OT on the board?

I agree with the CB's. There doesnt seem to be a clear cut leader. The rankings are pretty spread evenly amongst them. I cant remember ever seeing so much disparity amongst top picks. Again, we in all likelyhood wont have to worry about the top 3-4 CB's regardless.