Football Predicting how the QB draft prospect will do

ChiefRon · 03-10-2009, 10:45 AM

Now this is an interesting read...

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcnorth/...rd-debate.html

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

The experts are hedging. The fans are sweating. The team is making clear it is considering all of its options.

There are 47 days remaining until the 2009 NFL draft, giving the Detroit Lions some 1,125 hours before they are required to make the No. 1 overall pick. The Lions might need every minute of that span, especially if their internal discussion at all reflects the raging public debate on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford.

A classically built, strong-armed quarterback, Stafford has not yet caught on as the consensus No. 1 pick. ESPN.com draft analyst Todd McShay, for example, said recently the Lions face a "nightmare" decision because Stafford is "not mentally ready" to take on the pressures of being the No. 1 overall pick. McShay said that scouts from at least 10 teams agreed with that assessment and added: "I just don't feel great about building my organization around him."

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock told a Detroit radio station that "there are some things about him that bother me," and even Stafford's biggest supporter advocates with a negative argument. Yes, Mel Kiper Jr. said the Lions should select Stafford primarily because "there is nobody else to take."

Even fans are getting into the act. On the day the Lions announced they were playing host to Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith, Jim of Cincinnati wrote:

Matthew Stafford? Why are people thinking he is a good fit for an 0-16 team? I have seen Stafford play. He gets rattled easily. His arm is ok but his leadership skills lack. Next year they can get a much better QB. This year they need to fill in the holes on defense and on the line.

Why all of this generalist hate against Stafford, who by all accounts offers fine character as well as the draft's strongest arm?

Our friends at ESPN Research have developed a method for fleshing out the debate with statistical analysis. Using time-honored performance standards to predict future success for "blue-chip" quarterbacks, the formula placed Stafford between Akili Smith and Cade McNown in a category reserved for busts.

Does this mean Stafford is guaranteed to crash and burn? Of course not. But this evaluation documents in specific fashion the previously ill-defined criticisms of Stafford, helping to explain why there is so much disagreement about him with the draft little more than six weeks away.

The formula takes into account three statistics: Career starts, completion percentage and touchdown-interception ratio. The theory is that experience, accuracy and production versus mistakes can provide substantive indicators for college quarterbacks.

Formula Explanation
ESPN Research developed this formula to measure quarterbacks relative to a baseline completion percentage of 60 and a touchdown-interception ratio of 2.25. The multipliers allow each figure to have equal weight with career starts, which provides an important measure of experience.
The total score is the sum of the three adjusted figures.

The separate parameters for BCS and non-BCS quarterbacks help level the statistical playing field. They are based on the assumption that NFL-caliber quarterbacks playing against non-BCS opponents are going to have inflated numbers."

For those mathematically inclined -- it took me 10 readings to get it after having nightmare flashbacks to eighth-grade algebra -- here is the formula itself:

For BCS quarterbacks
Career Starts + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x5] +[(Career touchdown-INT ratio - 2.25)x10]

For non-BCS quarterbacks
Career Starts + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x2.5] + [(Career touchdown-INT Ratio - 2.25)x5]

(For a complete explanation of the formula, see the text box on your right.)

To test the formula, ESPN Research plugged in the 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the past 12 drafts, dating back to 1997. The results are below.

You'll see the quarterbacks broken into three categories. If their college statistics translated into a value of 20 or more, there was a strong likelihood for success. (Alex Smith and Tim Couch notwithstanding.) A value between 1 and 19 essentially meant "iffy."

But the most revealing category were those quarterbacks who finished with a value of 0 or less. Every one of them failed as NFL quarterbacks. Take a look:

Scores of First-Round Quarterbacks, 1997-2008
Group I: Strong likelihood of success
Player School Draft year Score
Matt Leinart USC 2006 64.04
Philip Rivers NC State 2004 48.44
Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 47.64
Alex Smith Utah 2005 44.88
Aaron Rodgers California 2005 40.58
Peyton Manning Tennessee 1998 39.47
Jason Campbell Auburn 2005 38.75
Byron Leftwich Marshall 2003 36.39
Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) 2004 33.85
Chad Pennington Marshall 2000 33.53
Daunte Culpepper Central Florida 1999 30.00
David Carr Fresno State 2002 23.97
Joe Flacco Delaware 2008 23.92
Eli Manning Ole Miss 2004 23.14
Donovan McNabb Syracuse 1999 21.62
Group II: Hit-or-Miss
Player School Draft year Score
Brady Quinn Notre Dame 2007 18.93
JaMarcus Russell LSU 2007 18.64
Rex Grossman Florida 2003 18.39
Vince Young Texas 2006 18.21
Carson Palmer USC 2003 16.35
Matt Ryan Boston College 2008 9.14
Patrick Ramsey Tulane 2002 9.06
J.P. Losman Tulane 2004 7.86
Jay Cutler Vanderbilt 2006 2.39
Group III: Busts
Player School Draft year Score
Akili Smith Oregon 1999 0.00
Cade McNown UCLA 1999 -6.41
Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 -6.85
Michael Vick Virginia Tech 2001 -11.32
Ryan Leaf Washington St. 1998 -16.92
Jim Druckenmiller Virginia Tech 1997 -20.25
Kyle Boller California 2003 -50.67

Stafford scored a -4.45, putting him in unflattering surroundings to say the least. You never want to be on a list that includes Jim Druckenmiller and Akili Smith. Stafford's career completion percentage of 57.1 percent and his touchdown-interception ratio of 1.55 were primarily responsible for his poor showing. That left him rated well below USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and slightly behind Kansas State's Josh Freeman.

Scores for 2009 Likely First-Round Quarterbacks
Player School Score
Mark Sanchez USC 32.63
Josh Freeman Kansas State 1.94
Matthew Stafford Georgia -4.55

Stafford's numbers were dragged down by a freshman season in which Stafford completed 52.7 percent of his passes and threw 13 interceptions against seven touchdowns.

When McShay, Mayock and Jim from Cincinnati express their concerns about Stafford, it's primarily for these reasons: College quarterbacks don't typically improve their accuracy in the NFL. If his decisions were at all suspect against SEC opponents, then it's reasonable to wonder how he will react to professional defenses.

Throw in the state of the Lions, who are coming off an 0-16 season and might feel pressure to start him immediately behind an offensive line that needs help, and you understand the genesis of the Stafford debate. Where will it lead? Luckily, we have 47 days to find out.

The Rick · 03-10-2009, 10:49 AM

I'm beginning to like the Cassel trade more and more...

Chiefnj2 · 03-10-2009, 10:53 AM

They took the Lewin breakdown and added the TD/INT ratio and came up with a much worse predictor. There breakdown is unworkable.

Their top 15 "strong likelihood of success" is anything but that. Of the 5 highest scorers only 1 has had any degree of success. 2 are complete busts.

ToxSocks · 03-10-2009, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Rick

I'm beginning to like the Cassel trade more and more...

Yep. I would've supported the Stafford/ Sanchez draft regardless though. I just want a QB, and i Trust Pioli

CoMoChief · 03-10-2009, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Rick

I'm beginning to like the Cassel trade more and more...

Well yeah, this is a terrible year to draft a QB high in the first rd.

Cormac · 03-10-2009, 10:57 AM

Look at the top 4 highest-ranked QBs: Leinart, Couch and Alex Smith are among them. In the middle "hit-and-miss" category are Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan.

I'd burn the "formula" and pretend I never had anything to do with it, if I were them.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 03-10-2009, 11:01 AM

Even John Hollinger would be embarrassed of that formula.

Nothing like inventing a statistical formula in order to support an argument that doesn't even support the argument.

Plug Chase Daniel's numbers into that formula, or Graham Harrell's.

You might as well call it the spread formula.

1094/1609= 67.99%
101 TDs, 41 Ints

(67.99-60)*5+(2.525-2.5)*10=39.95+.25=

41.20, putting him fifth on the list

Graham Harrell 1403/2010= 69.8%
134 TDs, 34 Ints

(69.8-60)*5+(3.94-2.5)*10= 49+14.4=

63.4

putting Harrell #2 on the list.

Chiefnj2 · 03-10-2009, 11:04 AM

ESPN is slipping so badly. I can't believe they even printed that drivel. Ideally you'd want a QB that falls between 30 and 40 on their scale, or 9.1 and 17.

suds79 · 03-10-2009, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

Well yeah, this is a terrible year to draft a QB high in the first rd.

Well we don't know that for sure. If either Stafford or Sanchez turn out to be franchise QBs, then it's not a terrible year to draft a QB high in the 1st.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 03-10-2009, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Rick

I'm beginning to like the Cassel trade more and more...

Yeah, I'd like to see where Cassel would fall on that list, but we'll never know since he went from Jr. High to the NFL in start time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cormac

Look at the top 4 highest-ranked QBs: Leinart, Couch and Alex Smith are among them. In the middle "hit-and-miss" category are Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan.

I'd burn the "formula" and pretend I never had anything to do with it, if I were them.

That break down puts Sanchez is the Pennington / Rothlesburger Zone; I can live with that.

ChiefRon · 03-10-2009, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Even John Hollinger would be embarrassed of that formula.

Nothing like inventing a statistical formula in order to support an argument that doesn't even support the argument.

Plug Chase Daniel's numbers into that formula, or Graham Harrell's.

You might as well call it the spread formula.

1094/1609= 67.99%
101 TDs, 41 Ints

(67.99-60)*5+(2.525-2.5)*10=39.95+.25=

41.20, putting him fifth on the list

Graham Harrell 1403/2010= 69.8%
134 TDs, 34 Ints

(69.8-60)*5+(3.94-2.5)*10= 49+14.4=

63.4

putting Harrell #2 on the list.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 03-10-2009, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suds79

Well we don't know that for sure. If either Stafford or Sanchez turn out to be franchise QBs, then it's not a terrible year to draft a QB high in the 1st.

B-but...but...they KNOW! They're the mother****ing Karnac's of Chiefs Planet!

Bow! Bow! Bow to the Chiefs Palnet Karnac's!!!

ChiefRon · 03-10-2009, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cormac

Look at the top 4 highest-ranked QBs: Leinart, Couch and Alex Smith are among them. In the middle "hit-and-miss" category are Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan.

I'd burn the "formula" and pretend I never had anything to do with it, if I were them.

Actually, that's why I posted it.

Entertainment.

What would you do if this was being used to debate QB or no QB?

Laugh.

"Um, the prospects are all mixed in there. What's your point?"

The Rick · 03-10-2009, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth CarlSatan

Yeah, I'd like to see where Cassel would fall on that list, but we'll never know since he went from Jr. High to the NFL in start time.

I wasn't so much talking about the formula as I was this:

Quote:

A classically built, strong-armed quarterback, Stafford has not yet caught on as the consensus No. 1 pick. ESPN.com draft analyst Todd McShay, for example, said recently the Lions face a "nightmare" decision because Stafford is "not mentally ready" to take on the pressures of being the No. 1 overall pick. McShay said that scouts from at least 10 teams agreed with that assessment and added: "I just don't feel great about building my organization around him."

Quote:

Matthew Stafford? Why are people thinking he is a good fit for an 0-16 team? I have seen Stafford play. He gets rattled easily. His arm is ok but his leadership skills lack. Next year they can get a much better QB.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 03-10-2009, 11:22 AM

And yet other sources....

Strengths:
Rare arm strength and can make all of the throws...Has a quick release...Good bulk and a solid build...Above average athleticism...Can throw on the run...Will buy time in the pocket and make plays with his feet...Has the ability to fit throws into tight spaces...Strong and tough...Stands tall in the face of pressure...Throws a nice deep ball...Intense, competitive and loves the game...Durable and never missed a start in college...Has a lot of experience against top competition...Played in a pro style offense...Understands how to read coverages and go through his progressions...Hard worker...Team leader and captain ... Improved every year and still has a lot of upside.

Weaknesses:
Doesn't have the ideal height you look for...Has too much confidence in his arm at times and will force some throws...Takes unnecessary risks...Minor accuracy issues and will make his targets adjust...Gets careless with his technique and fundamentals...Can improve his footwork...Tends to put too much mustard on short throws...A little inconsistent ... Classic gunslinger who will throw some interceptions.

Notes:
A three-year starter in the SEC who compiled a 27-7 record for the Bulldogs...First name is actually "John"...Attended the same Texas high school as former Lions great Bobby Layne and led them to their first state title since 1957...Was considered to be one of the top recruits in the entire country coming out of high school...Was named MVP of the Chick-Fil-A Bowl as a true freshman and the Capital One Bowl as a junior...Earned numerous 2nd Team All-SEC honors in '08...Has everything you look for in a quarterback prospect, including excellent physical tools and top-notch intangibles...Potential franchise signal caller and is the type of player you can build your team around.

03-10-2009, 10:45 AM
ChiefRon Starter Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Memphis, TN Casino cash: $10004900	Predicting how the QB draft prospect will do Now this is an interesting read... http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcnorth/...rd-debate.html Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert The experts are hedging. The fans are sweating. The team is making clear it is considering all of its options. There are 47 days remaining until the 2009 NFL draft, giving the Detroit Lions some 1,125 hours before they are required to make the No. 1 overall pick. The Lions might need every minute of that span, especially if their internal discussion at all reflects the raging public debate on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford. A classically built, strong-armed quarterback, Stafford has not yet caught on as the consensus No. 1 pick. ESPN.com draft analyst Todd McShay, for example, said recently the Lions face a "nightmare" decision because Stafford is "not mentally ready" to take on the pressures of being the No. 1 overall pick. McShay said that scouts from at least 10 teams agreed with that assessment and added: "I just don't feel great about building my organization around him." NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock told a Detroit radio station that "there are some things about him that bother me," and even Stafford's biggest supporter advocates with a negative argument. Yes, Mel Kiper Jr. said the Lions should select Stafford primarily because "there is nobody else to take." Even fans are getting into the act. On the day the Lions announced they were playing host to Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith, Jim of Cincinnati wrote: Matthew Stafford? Why are people thinking he is a good fit for an 0-16 team? I have seen Stafford play. He gets rattled easily. His arm is ok but his leadership skills lack. Next year they can get a much better QB. This year they need to fill in the holes on defense and on the line. Why all of this generalist hate against Stafford, who by all accounts offers fine character as well as the draft's strongest arm? Our friends at ESPN Research have developed a method for fleshing out the debate with statistical analysis. Using time-honored performance standards to predict future success for "blue-chip" quarterbacks, the formula placed Stafford between Akili Smith and Cade McNown in a category reserved for busts. Does this mean Stafford is guaranteed to crash and burn? Of course not. But this evaluation documents in specific fashion the previously ill-defined criticisms of Stafford, helping to explain why there is so much disagreement about him with the draft little more than six weeks away. The formula takes into account three statistics: Career starts, completion percentage and touchdown-interception ratio. The theory is that experience, accuracy and production versus mistakes can provide substantive indicators for college quarterbacks. Formula Explanation ESPN Research developed this formula to measure quarterbacks relative to a baseline completion percentage of 60 and a touchdown-interception ratio of 2.25. The multipliers allow each figure to have equal weight with career starts, which provides an important measure of experience. The total score is the sum of the three adjusted figures. The separate parameters for BCS and non-BCS quarterbacks help level the statistical playing field. They are based on the assumption that NFL-caliber quarterbacks playing against non-BCS opponents are going to have inflated numbers." For those mathematically inclined -- it took me 10 readings to get it after having nightmare flashbacks to eighth-grade algebra -- here is the formula itself: For BCS quarterbacks Career Starts + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x5] +[(Career touchdown-INT ratio - 2.25)x10] For non-BCS quarterbacks Career Starts + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x2.5] + [(Career touchdown-INT Ratio - 2.25)x5] (For a complete explanation of the formula, see the text box on your right.) To test the formula, ESPN Research plugged in the 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the past 12 drafts, dating back to 1997. The results are below. You'll see the quarterbacks broken into three categories. If their college statistics translated into a value of 20 or more, there was a strong likelihood for success. (Alex Smith and Tim Couch notwithstanding.) A value between 1 and 19 essentially meant "iffy." But the most revealing category were those quarterbacks who finished with a value of 0 or less. Every one of them failed as NFL quarterbacks. Take a look: Scores of First-Round Quarterbacks, 1997-2008 Group I: Strong likelihood of success Player School Draft year Score Matt Leinart USC 2006 64.04 Philip Rivers NC State 2004 48.44 Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 47.64 Alex Smith Utah 2005 44.88 Aaron Rodgers California 2005 40.58 Peyton Manning Tennessee 1998 39.47 Jason Campbell Auburn 2005 38.75 Byron Leftwich Marshall 2003 36.39 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) 2004 33.85 Chad Pennington Marshall 2000 33.53 Daunte Culpepper Central Florida 1999 30.00 David Carr Fresno State 2002 23.97 Joe Flacco Delaware 2008 23.92 Eli Manning Ole Miss 2004 23.14 Donovan McNabb Syracuse 1999 21.62 Group II: Hit-or-Miss Player School Draft year Score Brady Quinn Notre Dame 2007 18.93 JaMarcus Russell LSU 2007 18.64 Rex Grossman Florida 2003 18.39 Vince Young Texas 2006 18.21 Carson Palmer USC 2003 16.35 Matt Ryan Boston College 2008 9.14 Patrick Ramsey Tulane 2002 9.06 J.P. Losman Tulane 2004 7.86 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt 2006 2.39 Group III: Busts Player School Draft year Score Akili Smith Oregon 1999 0.00 Cade McNown UCLA 1999 -6.41 Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 -6.85 Michael Vick Virginia Tech 2001 -11.32 Ryan Leaf Washington St. 1998 -16.92 Jim Druckenmiller Virginia Tech 1997 -20.25 Kyle Boller California 2003 -50.67 Stafford scored a -4.45, putting him in unflattering surroundings to say the least. You never want to be on a list that includes Jim Druckenmiller and Akili Smith. Stafford's career completion percentage of 57.1 percent and his touchdown-interception ratio of 1.55 were primarily responsible for his poor showing. That left him rated well below USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and slightly behind Kansas State's Josh Freeman. Scores for 2009 Likely First-Round Quarterbacks Player School Score Mark Sanchez USC 32.63 Josh Freeman Kansas State 1.94 Matthew Stafford Georgia -4.55 Stafford's numbers were dragged down by a freshman season in which Stafford completed 52.7 percent of his passes and threw 13 interceptions against seven touchdowns. When McShay, Mayock and Jim from Cincinnati express their concerns about Stafford, it's primarily for these reasons: College quarterbacks don't typically improve their accuracy in the NFL. If his decisions were at all suspect against SEC opponents, then it's reasonable to wonder how he will react to professional defenses. Throw in the state of the Lions, who are coming off an 0-16 season and might feel pressure to start him immediately behind an offensive line that needs help, and you understand the genesis of the Stafford debate. Where will it lead? Luckily, we have 47 days to find out.
Posts: 924

03-10-2009, 10:53 AM	#3
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $6654388	They took the Lewin breakdown and added the TD/INT ratio and came up with a much worse predictor. There breakdown is unworkable. Their top 15 "strong likelihood of success" is anything but that. Of the 5 highest scorers only 1 has had any degree of success. 2 are complete busts. __________________ Mismanaging the clock.
Posts: 22,541

03-10-2009, 10:57 AM	#6
Cormac Haley sceptic.... Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: waiting it out....... Casino cash: $10004900	Look at the top 4 highest-ranked QBs: Leinart, Couch and Alex Smith are among them. In the middle "hit-and-miss" category are Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan. I'd burn the "formula" and pretend I never had anything to do with it, if I were them.
Posts: 2,406

03-10-2009, 11:01 AM	#7
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7129572	Even John Hollinger would be embarrassed of that formula. Nothing like inventing a statistical formula in order to support an argument that doesn't even support the argument. Plug Chase Daniel's numbers into that formula, or Graham Harrell's. You might as well call it the spread formula. 1094/1609= 67.99% 101 TDs, 41 Ints (67.99-60)5+(2.525-2.5)10=39.95+.25= 41.20, putting him fifth on the list Graham Harrell 1403/2010= 69.8% 134 TDs, 34 Ints (69.8-60)5+(3.94-2.5)10= 49+14.4= 63.4 putting Harrell #2 on the list. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
Posts: 75,083

03-10-2009, 11:04 AM	#8
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $6654388	ESPN is slipping so badly. I can't believe they even printed that drivel. Ideally you'd want a QB that falls between 30 and 40 on their scale, or 9.1 and 17. __________________ Mismanaging the clock.
Posts: 22,541

03-10-2009, 10:49 AM	#2
The Rick Veteran Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Milwaukee, WI Casino cash: $6781320	I'm beginning to like the Cassel trade more and more...
Posts: 2,442

03-10-2009, 11:22 AM	#15
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7129572	And yet other sources.... Strengths: Rare arm strength and can make all of the throws...Has a quick release...Good bulk and a solid build...Above average athleticism...Can throw on the run...Will buy time in the pocket and make plays with his feet...Has the ability to fit throws into tight spaces...Strong and tough...Stands tall in the face of pressure...Throws a nice deep ball...Intense, competitive and loves the game...Durable and never missed a start in college...Has a lot of experience against top competition...Played in a pro style offense...Understands how to read coverages and go through his progressions...Hard worker...Team leader and captain ... Improved every year and still has a lot of upside. Weaknesses: Doesn't have the ideal height you look for...Has too much confidence in his arm at times and will force some throws...Takes unnecessary risks...Minor accuracy issues and will make his targets adjust...Gets careless with his technique and fundamentals...Can improve his footwork...Tends to put too much mustard on short throws...A little inconsistent ... Classic gunslinger who will throw some interceptions. Notes: A three-year starter in the SEC who compiled a 27-7 record for the Bulldogs...First name is actually "John"...Attended the same Texas high school as former Lions great Bobby Layne and led them to their first state title since 1957...Was considered to be one of the top recruits in the entire country coming out of high school...Was named MVP of the Chick-Fil-A Bowl as a true freshman and the Capital One Bowl as a junior...Earned numerous 2nd Team All-SEC honors in '08...Has everything you look for in a quarterback prospect, including excellent physical tools and top-notch intangibles...Potential franchise signal caller and is the type of player you can build your team around. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
Posts: 75,083