Fixing this mess

[Rain Man]

Let's put players into one of four buckets over the next five years:


Group 1. Young, ascending, and will be in or near their prime in five years

QB (Cassel)
WR (Bowe)
T (Albert)
K (Succop)
P (Colquitt)
CB (Flowers)
CB (Carr)
ILB (Mays)
DE (Jackson)
DE (Dorsey)

Group 2. At their peak now, but will be past their prime in five years.

WR (Bradley)
TE (Ryan)
FS (Page)
ILB (Williams)

Group 3. Young, ascending, but probably not a long term answer
FB (Cox)
T (O'Callaghan)
C (Niswanger)
KR/PR (Charles)
OLB (Hali)

Group 4. Past their peak now and will be retired in five years.
HB (Johnson)
G (Waters)
G (Goff)
SS (Brown)
OLB (Vrabel)
NT (Edwards)


You can agree or disagree with me about the buckets, but based on what I see right now, we need to replace/upgrade at least 6 positions (Group 4) just to break even. To improve, about 15 positions to be replaced (Groups 2, 3, and 4), and that's not assuming any injuries in Group 1. This means getting 3 quality starters every year, which may be possible, but would be difficult.

If we did that on a regular basis, this means that we'd have to have upgrades like this (roughly)

2010 - G, OLB, NT
2011 - G, HB, SS
2012 - C, T, WR
2013 - FB, OLB, KR/PR
2014 - FS, ILB, TE
...and assume that everyone in Group 1 continues to do well.

This seems like a tall order.

[T-post Tom]

I agree that fixing this mess will be a tall order. That said, you might be a little too liberal in your use of "ascending." But you make a good point.

[cdcox]

If Hunt and Pioli read Chiefs Planet, they are now in full panic mode.

"We've lost Rain Man."

[Rain Man]

Yeah, "ascending" may well mean ascending toward mediocre. Some of those guys will likely have to be replaced due to stagnation or injury on top of Groups 2, 3, and 4.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If Hunt and Pioli read Chiefs Planet, they are now in full panic mode.

"We've lost Rain Man."

No, no, I am retaining my faith. It's kind of like the Battle of Britain, though, where Churchill is in the bunker trying to figure out next steps and Lend-Lease and how to get rid of the V-1's and how many people actually got out of Dunkirk.

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If Hunt and Pioli read Chiefs Planet, they are now in full panic mode.

"We've lost Rain Man."

[T-post Tom]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Yeah, "ascending" may well mean ascending toward mediocre. Some of those guys will likely have to be replaced due to stagnation or injury on top of Groups 2, 3, and 4.

This team has at least nine circles of mediocrity. And Haley is our current Virgil.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

No, no, I am retaining my faith. It's kind of like the Battle of Britain, though, where Churchill is in the bunker trying to figure out next steps and Lend-Lease and how to get rid of the V-1's and how many people actually got out of Dunkirk.

To be fair, Churchill didn't have to worry about the V-1's until 1944. Even his situation wasn't this bleak.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

To be fair, Churchill didn't have to worry about the V-1's until 1944. Even his situation wasn't this bleak.

I was trying to remember when they came around.

I think we need the Broncos to sneak attack USC and bring them into the war.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

To be fair, Churchill didn't have to worry about the V-1's until 1944. Even his situation wasn't this bleak.

Yeah, but then the Huns started in with the V2s. We're about in that general "this shit is starting to suck" vicinity.

[T-post Tom]

"Fixing this mess" also includes evaluation of the coaching staff. Based soley on the lack of adjustments that I saw today, "descending" is the new black in coaching at Arrowhead.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

There are players who aren't starting now, or who are role players, who could be long term answers, since a team isn't just 22 players.

DaJuan Morgan, Alex Magee, Tank Tyler are the three that first pop to mind.

The other thing to consider is the importance of playmakers. One really good player can mask an inferior one. A guy like Albert Haynesworth, for example, made everyone else on that Titans D-Line better.

Taylor Mays makes the entire SC secondary better. Ray Lewis, at one point in his career, made the entire Ravens LB corps better. Troy Polamalu makes Pitt's entire defense better.

If we could get a playmaker in the secondary at the top of this draft, and find another guy who can help change the game by getting to the passer, and find a NT who can hold the POA, then this defense will be largely fixed.

We need a deep threat to take the pressure off Bowe and get rid of the bracket coverage. That, along with solidifying the interior offensive line, and a servicable HB, will fix this O, provided that Cassel is an answer at QB.

This team needs to find 15 guys over the next three drafts who can contribute to a winning team. That means that we need to hit on about 3/4 of our draft picks.

That's a very tall order.

[salame]

carr belongs in group 3

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

There are players who aren't starting now, or who are role players, who could be long term answers, since a team isn't just 22 players.

DaJuan Morgan, Alex Magee, Tank Tyler are the three that first pop to mind.

The other thing to consider is the importance of playmakers. One really good player can mask an inferior one. A guy like Albert Haynesworth, for example, made everyone else on that Titans D-Line better.

Taylor Mays makes the entire SC secondary better. Ray Lewis, at one point in his career, made the entire Ravens LB corps better. Troy Polamalu makes Pitt's entire defense better.

If we could get a playmaker in the secondary at the top of this draft, and find another guy who can help change the game by getting to the passer, and find a NT who can hold the POA, then this defense will be largely fixed.

We need a deep threat to take the pressure off Bowe and get rid of the bracket coverage. That, along with solidifying the interior offensive line, and a servicable HB, will fix this O, provided that Cassel is an answer at QB.

This team needs to find 15 guys over the next three drafts who can contribute to a winning team. That means that we need to hit on about 3/4 of our draft picks.

That's a very tall order.

That sounds about right, but you've got to agree that Corey Mays and Demarrio Williams are anything but a stop gap at the ILB/MLB position. I like Mays aggressiveness, but neither shows a natural inclination to locate the ball or anticipate a play as it develops. And both are below mediocre in run and pass support. Williams is almost non-existant out there.

I know it's not in line with the current fascination of the Mayberry, but I'd argue that these positions are even more important than the safety position, especially in a 3-4 alignment.

I think Belcher looks good when he's been given the chance, and might eventually fill the need at MLB, but we desperately need a high quality ILB.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

That sounds about right, but you've got to agree that Corey Mays and Demarrio Williams are anything but a stop gap at the ILB/MLB position. I like Mays aggressiveness, but neither shows a natural inclination to locate the ball or anticipate a play as it develops. And both are below mediocre in run and pass support. Williams is almost non-existant out there.

I know it's not in line with the current fascination of the Mayberry, but I'd argue that these positions are even more important than the safety position, especially in a 3-4 alignment.

I think Belcher looks good when he's been given the chance, and might eventually fill the need at MLB, but we desperately need a high quality ILB.

Meh. Really, look at all the Steeler defenses of the last several years. They've swapped those ILBs out like interchangeable parts. I think we need to get an entirely new LB corps (save for Tamba, he can be a serviceable rotation player), but I wouldn't worry about spending really high picks on the inside backers. They are the RBs of the defense. You can find them all over the draft, and they can produce quite well.