Life Just a warning , you better start packin

Hog's Gone Fishin · 01-10-2011, 04:45 PM

your freezer NOW. When the food supply demand trickles down to the consumer it's gonna hurt. This Goddamn ethanol bullshit is the stupidest thing I've ever seen. Go buy a bag of Tostitos right now and you'll be gettin a bargain if it's only 4 bucks. Hog prices are hittin ALL TIME HIGHS AND PRODUCERS ARE LOSING BIG MONEY !

Pork Commentary: Lean Hogs Hit Life of Contract Highs!!
CANADA - This week's North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long.
Jim Long on ThePigSite

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
Last week’s USDA December Hogs and Pigs Report were definitely interpreted as bullish. Life of contract highs was reached in all the summer months in 2011 with all four months in the 90’s. The formula for stronger prices is many.

Our Observations
The USDA December report showed there was about 70,000 fewer sows, and 500,000 fewer pigs than a year ago. Less is not more!

Global meat consumption is expected to increase 2 per cent in 2011

US cattle futures hit record highs this past week when the lead month peaked at 107.475. Texas cash cattle also hit $1.07 per pound – the highest in seven years. Drivers in the cattle market are strong domestic and export beef sales, optimism China will buy beef and expected fewer cattle in 2011. April live cattle futures closed at $112.20 per pound last Friday up over 20 cents per pound from April future lows. That would be $260 per head higher on a 1300 pound steer. Record beef prices are going to do nothing but enhance hog prices and the lean hog future market pushing higher is a reflection of that reality.

This past week a pork powerhouse leader expressed to us his greatest fear for 2011 – it is not pork demand; the fear is feed price acceleration and the large packer margins that packers have enjoyed since last spring. The just of his premise that packer margins that have reached above $30 per head at times are unhealthy for a robust production base. Especially the last three months when producers were losing $20 per head.
Of note: Pork plant margins for last Thursday, on average, were forecast at $3.90 per head down from $16.70 a week ago, this as hog prices surged in the past week. Over the next while we expect to see an interesting dynamic of lower hog numbers and the dilemma of packers to try to hold margins and or market share.

In our opinion, one of the greatest indicators of market psychology is the USDA cash early wean and feeder pig market. Last week cash early weans averaged $56.75(high $65.00), cash 40 pound feeder pigs averaged $67.77(high $73.00). Very strong prices in the face of $6.00 corn. This is a real indication of lack of supply and strong demand.

High corn prices, soybean and feed prices will only push hog prices higher over the coming months. With North American pork producers as least cost as any in the world, high feed prices will result in a greater market share gain as pork production is further limited in grain importing countries. Countries such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Mexico will need to have substantially higher hog prices to cover their cost of production significantly higher than North America. The high domestic prices in these countries will continue to pull pork from North America enhancing prices.

In the next while there will be increased interest in improving feed conversions due to high feed costs. There will be ongoing pressure on Genetic companies to show improvement and results. Some Genetics can, some can’t. We are glad that Genesus spent significant money eight years ago to measure individual feed conversions and growth rates. Currently some boars are 2.1 to 1. We all have to become increasingly more efficient.
Summary
Watching NBC national news last week the increasing cost of food and pork was a news item, a National story. Wait until the Einstein’s that have subsidized the insanity of putting billions of bushels of corn into ethanol production begin to see the economic, social, and political implications of higher feed costs. This will become a bigger story in 2011. We suspect that more land will be coming out of set aside while the battle of continued corn ethanol subsidies will be engaged.

The good news for hog producers in 2011 is pork prices will be strong which will support higher feed prices. We expect hogs will reach $1.00 lean this season.

Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

MOhillbilly · 01-10-2011, 04:50 PM

lay pellets are 9.50 per 50# up 3-4 bucks from acouple months ago.

talastan · 01-10-2011, 04:50 PM

Careful Hog.....you're treading DC forum waters right now..

Serioiusly though I agree. This combined with USDA increased regulation is going to bring prices up. Stock up folks.

MOhillbilly · 01-10-2011, 04:52 PM

hog & chicken feed went up but beef cattle & dog feed remained fairly steady. WTF?

ClevelandBronco · 01-10-2011, 04:53 PM

I'm taking your advice and packing my freezer with $4 bags of Tostitos.

Brock · 01-10-2011, 04:53 PM

Hog lots are a nuisance anyway.

**bevischief** · 01-10-2011, 04:53 PM

Glad that both freezers are full.

**bevischief** · 01-10-2011, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClevelandBronco

I'm taking your advice and packing my freezer with $4 bags of Tostitos.

**Ming the Merciless** · 01-10-2011, 04:55 PM

MOhillbilly · 01-10-2011, 04:56 PM

you can buy a 200 # hog off of craigs from 1-1.50 per #.

Demonpenz · 01-10-2011, 04:57 PM

Time to go to rolla and do some hoggin

Hog's Gone Fishin · 01-10-2011, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

It's all good. I'm prepared. I hope your next tank of ethanol destroys your engine. then maybe you'll understand what our ****ed up government is trying to accomplish.

FAX · 01-10-2011, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MOhillbilly

you can buy a 200 # hog off of craigs from 1-1.50 per #.

Some people think those little pot-bellied pigs are cute until they grow up into giant, man-eating hogs. If you can save your wife and children from being devoured in their sleep by a giant, man-eating hog and make a buck a pound in the bargain, that's a pretty good deal.

FAX

**TinyEvel** · 01-10-2011, 05:01 PM

**BigMeatballDave** · 01-10-2011, 05:04 PM

I've noticed bacon is getting expensive. Seriously. I used to buy the cheap stuff at Sav-a-lot for a buck. Its over $2.

01-10-2011, 04:45 PM
Hog's Gone Fishin Fish are scared of me Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1710477	Just a warning , you better start packin your freezer NOW. When the food supply demand trickles down to the consumer it's gonna hurt. This Goddamn ethanol bullshit is the stupidest thing I've ever seen. Go buy a bag of Tostitos right now and you'll be gettin a bargain if it's only 4 bucks. Hog prices are hittin ALL TIME HIGHS AND PRODUCERS ARE LOSING BIG MONEY ! Pork Commentary: Lean Hogs Hit Life of Contract Highs!! CANADA - This week's North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long. Jim Long on ThePigSite Jim Long is President & CEO of Genesus Genetics. Last week’s USDA December Hogs and Pigs Report were definitely interpreted as bullish. Life of contract highs was reached in all the summer months in 2011 with all four months in the 90’s. The formula for stronger prices is many. Our Observations The USDA December report showed there was about 70,000 fewer sows, and 500,000 fewer pigs than a year ago. Less is not more! Global meat consumption is expected to increase 2 per cent in 2011 US cattle futures hit record highs this past week when the lead month peaked at 107.475. Texas cash cattle also hit $1.07 per pound – the highest in seven years. Drivers in the cattle market are strong domestic and export beef sales, optimism China will buy beef and expected fewer cattle in 2011. April live cattle futures closed at $112.20 per pound last Friday up over 20 cents per pound from April future lows. That would be $260 per head higher on a 1300 pound steer. Record beef prices are going to do nothing but enhance hog prices and the lean hog future market pushing higher is a reflection of that reality. This past week a pork powerhouse leader expressed to us his greatest fear for 2011 – it is not pork demand; the fear is feed price acceleration and the large packer margins that packers have enjoyed since last spring. The just of his premise that packer margins that have reached above $30 per head at times are unhealthy for a robust production base. Especially the last three months when producers were losing $20 per head. Of note: Pork plant margins for last Thursday, on average, were forecast at $3.90 per head down from $16.70 a week ago, this as hog prices surged in the past week. Over the next while we expect to see an interesting dynamic of lower hog numbers and the dilemma of packers to try to hold margins and or market share. In our opinion, one of the greatest indicators of market psychology is the USDA cash early wean and feeder pig market. Last week cash early weans averaged $56.75(high $65.00), cash 40 pound feeder pigs averaged $67.77(high $73.00). Very strong prices in the face of $6.00 corn. This is a real indication of lack of supply and strong demand. High corn prices, soybean and feed prices will only push hog prices higher over the coming months. With North American pork producers as least cost as any in the world, high feed prices will result in a greater market share gain as pork production is further limited in grain importing countries. Countries such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Mexico will need to have substantially higher hog prices to cover their cost of production significantly higher than North America. The high domestic prices in these countries will continue to pull pork from North America enhancing prices. In the next while there will be increased interest in improving feed conversions due to high feed costs. There will be ongoing pressure on Genetic companies to show improvement and results. Some Genetics can, some can’t. We are glad that Genesus spent significant money eight years ago to measure individual feed conversions and growth rates. Currently some boars are 2.1 to 1. We all have to become increasingly more efficient. Summary Watching NBC national news last week the increasing cost of food and pork was a news item, a National story. Wait until the Einstein’s that have subsidized the insanity of putting billions of bushels of corn into ethanol production begin to see the economic, social, and political implications of higher feed costs. This will become a bigger story in 2011. We suspect that more land will be coming out of set aside while the battle of continued corn ethanol subsidies will be engaged. The good news for hog producers in 2011 is pork prices will be strong which will support higher feed prices. We expect hogs will reach $1.00 lean this season. Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics
Posts: 40,342

01-10-2011, 04:50 PM	#2
MOhillbilly Mama Tried Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Missouri Casino cash: $9949903	lay pellets are 9.50 per 50# up 3-4 bucks from acouple months ago. __________________ True Son of Liberty
Posts: 23,371

01-10-2011, 04:50 PM	#3
talastan Manning, we're coming for you! Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Springfield, Mo Casino cash: $10004950	Careful Hog.....you're treading DC forum waters right now.. Serioiusly though I agree. This combined with USDA increased regulation is going to bring prices up. Stock up folks. __________________ Can we please just draft AND DEVELOP a QB - est. since 1983 Check out my band: Truett and the Traitors
Posts: 4,815

01-10-2011, 04:52 PM	#4
MOhillbilly Mama Tried Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Missouri Casino cash: $9949903	hog & chicken feed went up but beef cattle & dog feed remained fairly steady. WTF? __________________ True Son of Liberty
Posts: 23,371

01-10-2011, 04:53 PM	#5
ClevelandBronco I'm with the banned. Join Date: Sep 2006 Casino cash: $5658955	I'm taking your advice and packing my freezer with $4 bags of Tostitos.
Posts: 28,113

01-10-2011, 04:53 PM	#6
Brock Say hello to my little friend Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Larryville Casino cash: $9598422	Hog lots are a nuisance anyway.
Posts: 47,314

01-10-2011, 04:53 PM	#7
bevischief .... Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Somewhere Kansas Casino cash: $8659352 VARSITY	Glad that both freezers are full.
Posts: 27,731

01-10-2011, 04:55 PM	#9
Ming the Merciless Emporer of Mongo Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Milky Way Casino cash: $2957556	__________________ ---- 2018 Adopt-A-Chief : Chris Conley 2017 Adopt-A-Chief : FRANK ZOMBO Click here-->*The Holy Chiefsplanet Lexicon **
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01-10-2011, 04:56 PM	#10
MOhillbilly Mama Tried Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Missouri Casino cash: $9949903	you can buy a 200 # hog off of craigs from 1-1.50 per #. __________________ True Son of Liberty
Posts: 23,371

01-10-2011, 04:57 PM	#11
Demonpenz I got Rice cookin in the micro Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Apartment "G UNIT!" Casino cash: $3132136	Time to go to rolla and do some hoggin __________________
Posts: 54,272

01-10-2011, 05:01 PM	#14
TinyEvel Just a li'l Evel Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Bald. Goatee. Jorts. Casino cash: $5417131
Posts: 11,810

01-10-2011, 05:04 PM	#15
BigMeatballDave GBM 8-12-15 Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Dayton, Oh. Casino cash: $10052154	I've noticed bacon is getting expensive. Seriously. I used to buy the cheap stuff at Sav-a-lot for a buck. Its over $2.
Posts: 59,997