Chiefs The Chiefs Need A QB, But Can They Get One?

**bevischief** · 12-16-2011, 10:36 AM

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2011/1...tion#storyjump

The Chiefs Need A QB, But Can They Get One?

Tiny by Wait and See on Dec 16, 2011 9:44 AM CST

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This article is an update to our QB draft analysis article from last week. The premise is the same:

An effective QB would improve the Chiefs more than an upgrade at any other position. There are four QBs expected to enter the upcoming draft that are considered good enough to start in their first season: Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin, and Landry Jones. This article, which was co-written by a friend, examines the likelihood of one of those players being available at the Chiefs draft slot.

The same disclaimers also apply:

The draft order will likely change. For example, how will the Chiefs perform under Crennel?
The QBs have yet to be fully analyzed, which could insert new players into the mix or cause one of the top 4 to nosedive.

Needs Perspective: Teams Who Need a Starting QB

The updated top 15 draft order is below. We include strength of schedule below because it's the first tiebreaker. Carolina has beaten Washington head to head and they're in the same conference, so Washington should get to pick first.

Star-divide
Pick # Team W L SOS
1 Colts 0 13 0.550
2 Rams 2 11 0.556
3 Vikings 2 11 0.574
4 Washington 4 9 0.479
5 Panthers 4 9 0.479
6 Browns 4 9 0.497
7 Dolphins 4 9 0.509
8 Jaguars 4 9 0.533
9 Buccaneers 4 9 0.550
10 Chiefs 5 8 0.479
11 Eagles 5 8 0.491
12 Bills 5 8 0.503
13 Cardinals 6 7 0.467
14 Seahawks 6 7 0.485
15 Chargers 6 7 0.509

Not much has changed from last week. The same four teams with a QB need and no recent expenditures on one remain ahead of us (Colts, Redskins, Browns and Dolphins). However, the Seahawks won last week and we lost, so we've increased separation on them from one draft slot to four.

Therefore, just like last week, assuming a static draft order and that teams that need QBs pick them, if the draft was tomorrow and the Chiefs stood pat, it's unlikely we'd get any of the top four. The two teams most likely to trade up, Seattle and Denver, remain the same. Tarvaris Jackson continues his mediocre play but can't claim the same lack of playmakers that could give Colt McCoy another year as the starter in Cleveland (and the Chiefs a shot at the fourth rated QB).

Historical Perspective: QBs Picked in the First Round

We also need to consider that losing teams generally have many needs in addition to QB. The table below shows how many QBs were taken in the top 9 (the picks prior to the projected Chiefs pick), and how many in the first round.
Year Top 9 Top 32
2011 2 4
2010 1 2
2009 2 3
2008 1 2
2007 1 2
2006 1 3
2005 1 3
2004 2 4
2003 2 4
2002 1 3

Updated trends:

On average, just over 1 QB is taken in the first 9 picks.
In all of the past ten drafts, at least two of the top four QBs were available at pick 10.
In six of the past ten drafts, at least three of the top four QBs were available at pick 10.

This situation is much improved from last week. Unless the QB situation around the league is worse than the typical situation of the past 10 years, this data indicates that the Chiefs have a good chance of having the opportunity to draft a highly touted QB in the first round. In fact, even in last year's draft, when four QBs were taken in the top 12, two of them were available at the tenth pick. In this year's draft that would translate to Landry Jones and either Robert Griffin III or Matt Barkley being available.

Will the Chiefs Take a QB?

Much of what we thought we knew is up in the air with the coaching change. First, if Stanzi gets to play, which seemed unlikely under Haley, and performs well, the Chiefs could be satisfied going into camp with Cassel, Stanzi, a later-round QB pick and/or Orton. Second, a highly touted coach like Cowher or Fisher could demand a high QB pick as a condition for taking the head coaching job. Third, there have been rumors that Pioli is comfortable with Cassel, which could cause him to skip picking a QB at all (I'd assume in that situation he'd try to finagle a huge trade back with a team that wanted a QB before Seattle or Buffalo get to pick).

Our current draft slot will almost definitely allow us to get a QB, but trying to decipher Pioli's intentions is almost impossible. So if you want us to take a QB, just take solace in the fact that historical trends make it look like we'll have a shot at a top-rated prospect.

ModSocks · 12-16-2011, 10:40 AM

The only QB that'll be on the board at ten is Landry Jones.

Might as well say hello to our new RT.

Micjones · 12-16-2011, 10:42 AM

Giggity giggity!

Brock · 12-16-2011, 10:44 AM

There are quite a few teams ahead of the Chiefs that will probably end up with more wins. It's a good possibility.

Sofa King · 12-16-2011, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brock

There are quite a few teams ahead of the Chiefs that will probably end up with more wins. It's a good possibility.

Us playing Oakland and Denver in the final 2 weeks is not good. We'll win at least 1 of those.

Rasputin · 12-16-2011, 10:49 AM

I hate Phillis Rivers for fumbling that ball.

ChiefsCountry · 12-16-2011, 10:49 AM

Another reason to hate McCluster

Brock · 12-16-2011, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sofa King

Us playing Oakland and Denver in the final 2 weeks is not good. We'll win at least 1 of those.

I don't know what makes you say that.

**DaKCMan AP** · 12-16-2011, 10:51 AM

If they want a QB they can get a QB. Atlanta wanted Julio Jones and moved up 21 spots to get him.

Sofa King · 12-16-2011, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brock

I don't know what makes you say that.

Oakland sucks, Palmer sucks, etc.

And Denver is due for a collapse. Orton will be throwing bombs in that game.

Brock · 12-16-2011, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sofa King

Oakland sucks, Palmer sucks, etc.

And Denver is due for a collapse. Orton will be throwing bombs in that game.

Meh, maybe. I don't think this team can beat anybody at this point.

Sofa King · 12-16-2011, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brock

Meh, maybe. I don't think this team can beat anybody at this point.

It's the Chiefs. If a win will hurt us in any way, they'll get 2. If a loss will hurt us, they'll lose 3 in a row.

It's what they do.

okcchief · 12-16-2011, 10:59 AM

If we lose our last 3 we will be where we need to be to get Barkley or RGIII. If not, we are screwed unless we trade up. We need to get ahead of Washington, Miami and Cleveland for sure.

okcchief · 12-16-2011, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sofa King

It's the Chiefs. If a win will hurt us in any way, they'll get 2. If a loss will hurt us, they'll lose 3 in a row.

It's what they do.

So true

**The Franchise** · 12-16-2011, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

If they want a QB they can get a QB. Atlanta wanted Julio Jones and moved up 21 spots to get him.

This.

It will tell me a lot about this FO if they stand pat and draft an OT.

12-16-2011, 10:36 AM
bevischief .... Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Somewhere Kansas Casino cash: $8659352 VARSITY	The Chiefs Need A QB, But Can They Get One? http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2011/1...tion#storyjump The Chiefs Need A QB, But Can They Get One? Tiny by Wait and See on Dec 16, 2011 9:44 AM CST 99 comments Story-email Email Printer Print This article is an update to our QB draft analysis article from last week. The premise is the same: An effective QB would improve the Chiefs more than an upgrade at any other position. There are four QBs expected to enter the upcoming draft that are considered good enough to start in their first season: Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin, and Landry Jones. This article, which was co-written by a friend, examines the likelihood of one of those players being available at the Chiefs draft slot. The same disclaimers also apply: The draft order will likely change. For example, how will the Chiefs perform under Crennel? The QBs have yet to be fully analyzed, which could insert new players into the mix or cause one of the top 4 to nosedive. Needs Perspective: Teams Who Need a Starting QB The updated top 15 draft order is below. We include strength of schedule below because it's the first tiebreaker. Carolina has beaten Washington head to head and they're in the same conference, so Washington should get to pick first. Star-divide Pick # Team W L SOS 1 Colts 0 13 0.550 2 Rams 2 11 0.556 3 Vikings 2 11 0.574 4 Washington 4 9 0.479 5 Panthers 4 9 0.479 6 Browns 4 9 0.497 7 Dolphins 4 9 0.509 8 Jaguars 4 9 0.533 9 Buccaneers 4 9 0.550 10 Chiefs 5 8 0.479 11 Eagles 5 8 0.491 12 Bills 5 8 0.503 13 Cardinals 6 7 0.467 14 Seahawks 6 7 0.485 15 Chargers 6 7 0.509 Not much has changed from last week. The same four teams with a QB need and no recent expenditures on one remain ahead of us (Colts, Redskins, Browns and Dolphins). However, the Seahawks won last week and we lost, so we've increased separation on them from one draft slot to four. Therefore, just like last week, assuming a static draft order and that teams that need QBs pick them, if the draft was tomorrow and the Chiefs stood pat, it's unlikely we'd get any of the top four. The two teams most likely to trade up, Seattle and Denver, remain the same. Tarvaris Jackson continues his mediocre play but can't claim the same lack of playmakers that could give Colt McCoy another year as the starter in Cleveland (and the Chiefs a shot at the fourth rated QB). Historical Perspective: QBs Picked in the First Round We also need to consider that losing teams generally have many needs in addition to QB. The table below shows how many QBs were taken in the top 9 (the picks prior to the projected Chiefs pick), and how many in the first round. Year Top 9 Top 32 2011 2 4 2010 1 2 2009 2 3 2008 1 2 2007 1 2 2006 1 3 2005 1 3 2004 2 4 2003 2 4 2002 1 3 Updated trends: On average, just over 1 QB is taken in the first 9 picks. In all of the past ten drafts, at least two of the top four QBs were available at pick 10. In six of the past ten drafts, at least three of the top four QBs were available at pick 10. This situation is much improved from last week. Unless the QB situation around the league is worse than the typical situation of the past 10 years, this data indicates that the Chiefs have a good chance of having the opportunity to draft a highly touted QB in the first round. In fact, even in last year's draft, when four QBs were taken in the top 12, two of them were available at the tenth pick. In this year's draft that would translate to Landry Jones and either Robert Griffin III or Matt Barkley being available. Will the Chiefs Take a QB? Much of what we thought we knew is up in the air with the coaching change. First, if Stanzi gets to play, which seemed unlikely under Haley, and performs well, the Chiefs could be satisfied going into camp with Cassel, Stanzi, a later-round QB pick and/or Orton. Second, a highly touted coach like Cowher or Fisher could demand a high QB pick as a condition for taking the head coaching job. Third, there have been rumors that Pioli is comfortable with Cassel, which could cause him to skip picking a QB at all (I'd assume in that situation he'd try to finagle a huge trade back with a team that wanted a QB before Seattle or Buffalo get to pick). Our current draft slot will almost definitely allow us to get a QB, but trying to decipher Pioli's intentions is almost impossible. So if you want us to take a QB, just take solace in the fact that historical trends make it look like we'll have a shot at a top-rated prospect.
Posts: 27,731

12-16-2011, 10:40 AM	#2
ModSocks Needs more middle fingers Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: San Diego Casino cash: $4144563	The only QB that'll be on the board at ten is Landry Jones. Might as well say hello to our new RT. __________________ Life is like a dick. Sometimes it gets hard for no reason, but it can't stay hard forever.
Posts: 64,437

12-16-2011, 10:42 AM	#3
Micjones Whose house? Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $10005180	Giggity giggity! __________________ It's like when I'm right I'm right, when I'm wrong I could been right, so I'm still right cause I coulda been wrong.
Posts: 15,344

12-16-2011, 10:44 AM	#4
Brock Say hello to my little friend Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Larryville Casino cash: $9598422	There are quite a few teams ahead of the Chiefs that will probably end up with more wins. It's a good possibility.
Posts: 47,314

12-16-2011, 10:49 AM	#6
Rasputin Tip of the hat LIV Champs Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: ks Casino cash: $3325421	I hate Phillis Rivers for fumbling that ball. __________________ A Brave Man Once Requested Me To Answer Questions That Are Key 'Is It To Be Or Not To Be' And I Replied Oh Why Ask Me
Posts: 54,976

12-16-2011, 10:49 AM	#7
ChiefsCountry The Insider Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Lake of the Ozarks Casino cash: $2148752	Another reason to hate McCluster
Posts: 49,698

12-16-2011, 10:51 AM	#9
DaKCMan AP Beloved & Awesome CP Celebrity Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Florida Casino cash: $6724952	If they want a QB they can get a QB. Atlanta wanted Julio Jones and moved up 21 spots to get him. __________________
Posts: 35,695

12-16-2011, 10:59 AM	#13
okcchief MVP Join Date: Jul 2008 Casino cash: $9849890	If we lose our last 3 we will be where we need to be to get Barkley or RGIII. If not, we are screwed unless we trade up. We need to get ahead of Washington, Miami and Cleveland for sure.
Posts: 6,703