Thought Experiment: QBs Succeeding with the 2011 Jaguars

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I wolfed down a quick lunch about an hour ago, listening to the opening minutes of SVP and Rusillo. Rusillo and Danny Kanell began a conversation on the nature of success in the NFL and what circumstances lead to it. For example, is Pete Carroll the same guy he was in New York and New England, or was he just given more time?

They quickly moved on to discussing the week's games, beginning with the Ravens and Pats. That made me think about Tom Brady. Not 2014 Brady, but skinny fat 2000 Tom Brady, 6th round pick of Dick Rehbein.

We often talk about how much X person's success stems from Y, but what might happen if we put some of these players in different places with different expectations?

I immediately thought about Blaine Gabbert and the 2011 Jags. When the Jags traded up for Gabbert I thought they were getting a future franchise QB not because I'm a Mizzou homer nor his rugged handsomeness, but his physical skills, work habits, and mental acumen.

Four years later, Gabbert looks like one of the worst top ten picks in history. Perhaps he never would have succeeded under any circumstance, but maybe he needed the years on the bench that a player like Aaron Rodgers had at the beginning of his career.

So I wonder: if you placed every one of the starting QBs in the NFL right now on the 2011 Jags as rookies, what would they have done? What would 2000 Tom Brady have done? 2001 Drew Brees? 2005 Aaron Rodgers? 2007 Jamarcus Russell? If you see their career playing out differently, how and why, and what does that suggest to you about the nature of quarterback development in the modern NFL, and how much does organizational stability and luck with coaching matter? Would Tom Brady have been Brady with Rich Kotite? Would Joe Montana be the Wooderson of South Bend without Bill Walsh? Are QB prospects only prospects if they are ready to step in day one? If the organization and luck matters, how do you improve your odds? How do you ensure that your die are most loaded when you roll them?

Feel free to pick other QBs as well. I'd like for this not to be a bash Alex Smith thread, but a dialogue on the skill and fortune involved in the successful career of a modern quarterback.

[Simply Red]

MOther **** Alex Smith@! I keed.

[DMAC]

Originally Posted by Simply Red

MOther **** Alex Smith@! I keed.

Tread ovah!!

[Titty Meat]

Coaching/Organization means a lot. Andy Reid for example: Vick was an MVP candidate one year what has he done since? Kolb was traded for a 2nd round pick, Alex Smith had a career under Reid, and McNabb was a possible HOF QB.

[Beef Supreme]

I only saw about six quarters of Blaine Gabbert playing football at Mizzou. In that limited sampling, I determined by eye test that I didn't want him as a QB. He was rattled under pressure, missed throws on dump off passes badly, and seemed to have little in the way of pocket awareness.

That said, it would be a hard road for any QB playing for the 2011 Jags. I imagine some would have done better than Gabbert, but that's not saying much.

[Prison Bitch]

Gabbert had mega bust plastered all over his forehead. To your point about Brady, it's fair. He may be a product of a system or at least one that allowed him a chance before being crushed. My general take is 90% of personnel decisions are correct because the experts make them. The 10% flubs get the press

[Rudy tossed tigger's salad]

As terrible as Blaine Gabbert has been (with his 784 attempts), Derek Carr has a lower YPA for his career (599 attempts).

['Hamas' Jenkins]

This isn't about Gabbert but bad situations:

Put the remaining playoff QBs on the 2011 Jags with Jack of the River as head coach:

Russell Wilson
Peyton Manning
Andrew Luck
Joe Flacco
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Tony Romo
Cam Newton

Same players all around otherwise. What happens to that player? The team? His development?

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

This isn't about Gabbert but bad situations:

Put the remaining playoff QBs on the 2011 Jags with Jack of the River as head coach:

Russell Wilson
Peyton Manning
Andrew Luck
Joe Flacco
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Tony Romo
Cam Newton

Same players all around otherwise. What happens to that player? The team? His development?

The Jags would win with Manning, Luck, Brady, and Rodgers.

The only ones who would fail would be Wilson, Flaaco, and possibly Newton.

[Saccopoo]

Holy shit...

Are you still homering for ****ing Blaine Gabbert?

The guy had horrible pocket presence. Horrible. It's not the Jags fault he sucked. It's because he sucked.

But a very nice way to philosophically wax about the woulda/couldas if Gabbert were only to have been picked by some other team besides the team that picked him because, you know, he was from MU and it's the Jags fault he was ruined.

If the NFL were television, and the teams being syndicated games shows, with the worst any given year being Family Feud, David Carr was Richard Dawson to Blaine Gabbert's Louie Anderson.

[Rudy tossed tigger's salad]

They'd all find their way (i.e. Steve Young)

[Rudy tossed tigger's salad]

Colts were a pretty shitty team. We can probably eliminate Luck.

[Amnorix]

Luck is a factor in everything, so it plays a role. And the context of one's circumstances also play a role.

Carroll failed in New England because he had Bobby Grier running the drafts for the Pats, and he did a God-awful job, and Grier also undermined Carroll's authority. I thought he had to go, but I never thought he got a fair shake with either the Jets or the Pats, so the book wasn't "written" on him.

It's hard, very hard, to be a diamond in a patch of crap. The losing mentality can wear you down. Subpar teammates don't just fail to perform on the field, they also have (and bring) issues that torpedo everything regarding the team. Teams have their own culture, and if that culture doesn't foster winning, you're very much swimming upstream.

I'm reading the Bill Parcells autobiography right now, and it's a great read. One thing that comes through loud and clear is the culture change that he brought to the teams that he helped turn around. The need for accountability, pushing to practice and play despite pain and discomfort, participation in "voluntary" offseason workouts, putting in far more hours of film time, etc., than people would ever think, etc. ad infinitum.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Chocolate Hog

The Jags would win with Manning, Luck, Brady, and Rodgers.

The only ones who would fail would be Wilson, Flaaco, and possibly Newton.

Newton is already doing okay with a shitty head coach and no talent around him on offense. It was basically the same except he lacked a defense as well when he was a rookie in 2011.

He would have been just fine on the Jags

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I'm reading the Bill Parcells autobiography right now, and it's a great read. One thing that comes through loud and clear is the culture change that he brought to the teams that he helped turn around. The need for accountability, pushing to practice and play despite pain and discomfort, participation in "voluntary" offseason workouts, putting in far more hours of film time, etc., than people would ever think, etc. ad infinitum.