Why the Chiefs have no option but to move on from Smith this offseason

[Hammock Parties]

I don't usually quote stuff from the incredible homerfest that is the Chiefs reddit but, man, this actually is a good post.

https://www.reddit.com/r/KansasCityC..._move_on_from/

1) Smith is getting old - Because of guys like Brady, Brees, Manning, and Favre who played QB at a high level into their late 30's and early 40's, people assume that Smith (who will be 34 next season) still has a couple good years in the tank. The fact that he just had a career year doesn't hurt that argument either.

But when you look at the history of when QB's start to decline, their skills matter a lot. Typically better QB's last longer. That's why a guy like Tom Brady is winning Super Bowls in his late 30's and (maybe) early 40's, but guys like Drew Bledsoe and Chad Pennington didn't even make it to their 35th birthday.

When you look at QB's that are similar to Smith, it's hard to find one who played at a high level at 34 or older. Bledsoe went 3-3 and was benched for Tony Romo at age 34 before retiring. McNabb was traded to the Redskins at age 34 and never had a winning record again. David Gerrard retired at age 33. You get the idea.

But what about Smith's recent season? Doesn't that show he has plenty left in the tank? No, because QB's declines tend to happen very suddenly. Favre had a career year at 40, then couldn't stay on the field at 41. Manning had one of the best QB seasons ever at age 37, but then started to show signs of decline at the end of his age 38 season.

There is no guarantee that Smith continues to play at a high level next year. In fact, it's actually surprisingly likely that he will decline next year.

2) The cap space and draft picks are just too valuable - The Chiefs have quite a lot of talent on offense, but the defense has aged and is starting to weaken. The $17 million we will save would be enough to sign a Pro-Bowl level defensive player. For comparison, Berry will have a $13 million cap hit next year, while Houston will be at $20 million. That would be a huge help to the defense.

Another option is to use the additional space to sign several good-but-not-great players to help fill several holes. That $17 million could get us 2-4 such players. Or we could use it to front-load extensions for guys like Peters and Morse so that we will be better able to fill the team with talent further down the road.

And that doesn't even include the draft pick. We invested a large amount of draft capital into Mahomes, 2 1sts and a 3rd, and while it'll be worth it if he reaches anywhere close to his potential those lost draft picks will hurt. If we can get a 2nd round pick for Smith it will be a great help in getting cheap talent to surround Mahomes.

3) Mahomes is cheap - Since the latest CBA was signed, every single Super Bowl winner has had some cap advantage. The 2012 Ravens had a QB on his rookie deal, as did the 2013 Seahawks. The Patriots have Brady, who has taken less money than he's worth. And the Broncos had a team of free agents who signed team-friendly deals. If the Eagles win this year, they are also led by a cheap QB (whether you want to count Wentz or Foles).

So unless we somehow manage to convince several high-end free agents to sign with us under team-friendly deals, or to convince Smith to take well below what he's worth (hint, neither of those will happen), history is very clear that we'll have a tough time winning the Super Bowl under the current CBA.

The only way we can realistically get this kind of cap advantage is to start a QB on his rookie deal. That is, Mahomes. Every year he sits on the bench is a year we don't get to take advantage of that cap advantage.

4) There's a limit to how much you can develop on the bench - People like to point to Aaron Rodgers as an example of sitting on the bench working, but the reality is that sitting on the bench for 3 years stunted his development. It took him almost 3 full seasons of playing full time before he reached the level we've gotten used to.

This should be common sense, you don't learn by sitting and watching, you learn by doing. Now there are some things you can learn without actually getting experience, but it's limited. The sooner Mahomes gets on the field, the sooner he will gain experience and (hopefully) become the QB we've been waiting for since Montana retired.

5) We wouldn't trade FOR Smith if we didn't already have him, so why wouldn't we trade him? - This is not really a reason, but an argument to show how silly the whole discussion is. I challenge you to find a single person advocating for the Bears or Texans to trade for Smith. Of course they aren't going to trade for him, they have young 2nd year QB's who they invested a lot of draft capital in, they're not going to put them on the bench to play Smith.

This same logic applies to us. Unless you want to argue that Mahomes has less potential than Watson or Trubisky (which would be tough to argue, since Trubisky played at a backup-level last year) why would we want Smith when they don't in identical situations?

6) Our current situation isn't working - We have had Smith as our starter for 5 years and we have yet to even make the AFCCG. You can make all sorts of excuses as for why, but the reality is that we haven't even been close to winning the Super Bowl with Smith. Unless you're happy with just winning in the regular season, doesn't it make sense to make a change at the most important position on the field? Especially considering...

5) Mahomes looks really, really good - Is Mahomes 100% certain to be the next elite QB? No, of course not. But anybody who has watched his play closely has to come to the conclusion that he looks great. And it's not just from the outside, according to Adam Schefter the Chiefs are happier with Mahomes than the Texans are with Watson and the Bears are with Trubisky (and that was before his week 17 start), and every report since has confirmed that the coaches are extremely excited for him.

Why would you want to keep a guy like Mahomes on the bench? Are you really that scared of him busting?

6) Smith's value will never be higher - Everybody knows to buy low and sell high, but it's so hard to do in practice. Smith is a perfect example why. He had MVP-level stats this season, how can you give that up for an unknown?

In reality this is exactly the time you want to trade him. Considering his age and prior production, it is almost certain that 2017 will be the best season of his career.

If you need to be sold, let's examine a player for whom we have the benefit of hindsight. In 2015, at age 30, Adrian Peterson had one of his best seasons ever. He led the league in rushing and rushing TD's, and was 1st team All-Pro. It's common knowledge that runningbacks age poorly, so even without knowing the future the Vikings would have been wise to trade him after that season. But because it's so hard to sell high they didn't, and after that season Peterson only had 72 more rushing yards as a Viking, and they were forced to let him go for nothing. Should we risk a similar situation with Smith?

7) Smith is a free agent next year - This is obvious. Even ignoring everything else, this is the last opportunity we have to trade Smith without signing him to an extension. Are we really going to pass up those draft picks for one year of a QB who has 2 career playoff wins?

In conclusion, there is a mountain of good reasons to move on from Smith, and it's for those reasons that he will almost certainly be traded in the next month or two.

[Reerun_KC]

Solid article.

[The Franchise]

All you have to read is #2.

[Discuss Thrower]

Noticed that earlier today.

It went over just about as well as every other Smith discussion does on that hugbox that is /r/kansascitychiefs

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Really well put together. Thorough and well informed.

As for his #4, I think one season is the perfect amount of time to let a QB develop. Allows them to ease into the whole NFL preparation process and see what it's all about, and it allows the QB to really get a grasp of the playbook. By now, Patrick should know enough of it to feel comfortable with just reading defenses instead of worrying about what routes are being ran and what protections or audibles are available.

By now, any more time on the bench is far less valuable than playing time. The Kid already showed HUGE strides with his footwork and comfort level under center against Denver, so I think those kinks are mostly worked out. Credit to the coaches and his hard work for that.

[Pablo]

If you've laid a turd in the toilet, do you flush it or let it hang out a little while?

[MMXcalibur]

Originally Posted by Pablo

If you've laid a turd in the toilet, do you flush it or let it hang out a little while?

Is the wife coming home anytime soon?
How big is the turd?
What does it weigh (in Courics)?

So many questions....

[TimeForWasp]

You should be using your talent to get us a good trade for Alex you dumb ass.

[Chiefs316]

So when do the Chiefs make this final? Can’t be soon enough. Not quite Cassel level but dam near the same. So ready for something different. This show is played out.

[TimeForWasp]

Give us 10 reasons why Smith is a better choice than Cousins.

[Chiefs316]

Originally Posted by 65TPT

Give us 10 reasons why Smith is a better choice than Cousins.

Wait, why?

[RealSNR]

Yeah, but his QBR and also he's got lots of money! /Alextards

[TimeForWasp]

We are going to have Mahomes next year. Time to say nice things about Alex. Profit.

[bigjosh]

then you have dipshits like this.

I will regret admitting this but I’d trade Pat Mahomes and Alex Smith right now in a package for Baker Mayfield.

— Matt Conner (@MattConnerAA) January 24, 2018

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by bigjosh

then you have dipshits like this.

I will regret admitting this but I’d trade Pat Mahomes and Alex Smith right now in a package for Baker Mayfield.

— Matt Conner (@MattConnerAA) January 24, 2018

Arrowhead Addict is run by butt****ing morons.