Football Which Positions are Most Important? - Page 2

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 02:03 PM

By "are Most Important," I mean, "lead to the most wins." To assess this, I figured out the strength of the correlation between any given team's "skill" (total PFF rating) at a position, and the regular season wins that team had. PFF ratings cover the last 4 years, so this is (4x32) 128 points of data.

Some results were surprising, some really weren't.

The correlation between QB rating and wins is amazing. In the past 4 years, there have been 19 QBs rated 22 or higher. None of them have had a losing season. There have been 6 QBs rated 31 or higher. None of them have won fewer than 12 games. There have been 13 QBs rated lower than -26.5. None of them had a winning season.

There was one other position that surprised me with how well it correlated with winning. The correlation was about 75% as strong as it was for QBs. Any guesses?

There was one specific subset of a position that actually had a negative correlation with wins. I don't think that increased skill at any position could actually cause a team to get worse, but of the top 5 guys at this position last year, only 1 was on a winning team. Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position.

One explanation would be that it is a very highly regarded position and tends to be picked very early, so some of the best guys end up on the worst teams. However, there is more than one position that gets picked early to bad teams, and this correlation doesn't exist for any other position. I don't think that the effect of good play at this position is enough to overcome bad play elsewhere, unlike a position like QB. The question I am left asking is: if good (even excellent) play at this position isn't enough to cause your team as a whole to get better, why is this position picked so early?

Anyway, rank the importance of all the positions listed, and I'll post my findings later.

Here are the positions I analyzed, in alphabetical order:

C
CB
DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs)
FB
G
HB
LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs)
PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs)
QB
S
T
TE
WR

Ceej · 08-09-2012, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hulk Hogan

Figure 4 Leg Lock

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

Here's my guess at the order:

QB
WR
DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs)
CB
T
LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs)
S/HB (YOU SAID TIED FOR 7TH)
C
G
PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs)
TE
FB

You are really, really close. Although, I said FBs were tied for last, not HBs tied for 7th. Your DL is too high, and TEs are too low. Other than that, you're within just a few spots at each position.

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 03:09 PM

Here's the order of correlation:

QB
WR
CB
S
T
TE
HB
G
LB
DL
PR
C/FB

I never would have guessed that Pass Rusher would be so low, or that Safety would be so high. The one with a negative correlation is a subset of one of the positions listed above. Any guesses?

Dayze · 08-09-2012, 03:16 PM

In Order:

TE
Guard
Tackle
FB
Converted Safety to CB
White Linebacker
30Yr Old WR

/True Fans

milkman · 08-09-2012, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Here's the order of correlation:

QB
WR
CB
S
T
TE
HB
G
LB
DL
PR
C/FB

I never would have guessed that Pass Rusher would be so low, or that Safety would be so high. The one with a negative correlation is a subset of one of the positions listed above. Any guesses?

I am surprised by the pass rusher being low, but not the least bit surprised that safety is so high.

I've been saying for a few years now that the safety position has become far more valuable now that it ever has been.

KC Jones · 08-09-2012, 09:23 PM

Punter - that's why we refer to Colquitt as MVP.

Backwards Masking · 08-09-2012, 09:54 PM

my top 5 as of now:

1. QB
2. LT
3. Pass Rushing Defensive End
4. Lights Out Middle Linebacker
5. #1 WR

Honorable Mention : Safety - the last line of defense becomes more and more important as Roger And The Do-Gooders continue castrating defenses.

And I saw what Willie Roaf did for our offense for you naysayers at my #2 Left Tackle. and my goodness how i miss it....

Backwards Masking · 08-09-2012, 09:55 PM

Here's my joke answer : #2 Tight End

like Chris Wilson, Dick Vermeil's "Secret Weapon"

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-09-2012, 09:56 PM

as a whole:

Offensive Line and defensive line......the majority of the team. The trenches.

Etc etc.

Flame away, moforukkas

Direckshun · 08-09-2012, 10:48 PM

Tier 1:

QB

Tier 2:

passrusher
LT
#1 WR
#1 CB
Cover 2 MLB

Tier 3:

#2 WR
feature RB
4-3 DT
3-4 DE
4-3 MLB
CB

Tier 4:

Slot WR
RT
C
TE
4-3 OLB
SS
FS

Tier 5:

Change of pace RBs
Goal line RBs
OG
backup QB
K
P

Tier 6:

FB
LS
blocking TE
special teamers

Chiefs=Champions · 08-09-2012, 11:06 PM

Most important

Qb
Pass rushers
Lt
Cb
Wr
S
Dline

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-09-2012, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

as a whole:

Offensive Line and defensive line......the majority of the team. The trenches.

Etc etc.

Flame away, moforukkas

In 1970.

And you still needed a HOF QB to win the Super Bowl.

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-09-2012, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

In 1970.

And you still needed a HOF QB to win the Super Bowl.

One out of three. How many pro bowl and h o lineman do you need? Surely you're not saying only one. Right?

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-09-2012, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

One out of three. How many pro bowl and h o lineman do you need? Surely you're not saying only one. Right?

The Steelers won a few Super Bowls this past decade with a pretty pathetic offensive line. Their defensive line hasn't been "great" since the 70's.

It's really all about the skill players on both sides of the ball and ultimately, the QB.

You could say the same about the Packers as well. The game has changed and continues to change.

Psyko Tek · 08-10-2012, 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR

It's got to be the 49ers and the WR position. So yes, WR is the position with the negative correlation

niner's?
think about how many number one WR millen took in detroit

08-09-2012, 02:03 PM
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle Casino cash: $560247	Which Positions are Most Important? By "are Most Important," I mean, "lead to the most wins." To assess this, I figured out the strength of the correlation between any given team's "skill" (total PFF rating) at a position, and the regular season wins that team had. PFF ratings cover the last 4 years, so this is (4x32) 128 points of data. Some results were surprising, some really weren't. The correlation between QB rating and wins is amazing. In the past 4 years, there have been 19 QBs rated 22 or higher. None of them have had a losing season. There have been 6 QBs rated 31 or higher. None of them have won fewer than 12 games. There have been 13 QBs rated lower than -26.5. None of them had a winning season. There was one other position that surprised me with how well it correlated with winning. The correlation was about 75% as strong as it was for QBs. Any guesses? There was one specific subset of a position that actually had a negative correlation with wins. I don't think that increased skill at any position could actually cause a team to get worse, but of the top 5 guys at this position last year, only 1 was on a winning team. Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position. One explanation would be that it is a very highly regarded position and tends to be picked very early, so some of the best guys end up on the worst teams. However, there is more than one position that gets picked early to bad teams, and this correlation doesn't exist for any other position. I don't think that the effect of good play at this position is enough to overcome bad play elsewhere, unlike a position like QB. The question I am left asking is: if good (even excellent) play at this position isn't enough to cause your team as a whole to get better, why is this position picked so early? Anyway, rank the importance of all the positions listed, and I'll post my findings later. Here are the positions I analyzed, in alphabetical order: C CB DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs) FB G HB LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs) PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs) QB S T TE WR
Posts: 10,753

08-09-2012, 03:09 PM	#18
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle Casino cash: $560247	Here's the order of correlation: QB WR CB S T TE HB G LB DL PR C/FB I never would have guessed that Pass Rusher would be so low, or that Safety would be so high. The one with a negative correlation is a subset of one of the positions listed above. Any guesses? __________________ With a sack in 61% of his games, SB MVP Von Miller is the most consistent pass rusher in NFL history.
Posts: 10,753

08-09-2012, 03:16 PM	#19
Dayze Resident Glue Sniffer Join Date: Nov 2003 Casino cash: $1939358	In Order: TE Guard Tackle FB Converted Safety to CB White Linebacker 30Yr Old WR /True Fans
Posts: 37,452

08-09-2012, 09:23 PM	#21
KC Jones Genious Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Colorado Casino cash: $10012761	Punter - that's why we refer to Colquitt as MVP. __________________ re-sign: to sign again resign: to withdraw from employment
Posts: 5,366

08-09-2012, 09:54 PM	#22
Backwards Masking Bustle in your hedgerow? Join Date: May 2011 Location: NOT Missouri Casino cash: $10004900	my top 5 as of now: 1. QB 2. LT 3. Pass Rushing Defensive End 4. Lights Out Middle Linebacker 5. #1 WR Honorable Mention : Safety - the last line of defense becomes more and more important as Roger And The Do-Gooders continue castrating defenses. And I saw what Willie Roaf did for our offense for you naysayers at my #2 Left Tackle. and my goodness how i miss it....
Posts: 2,418

08-09-2012, 09:55 PM	#23
Backwards Masking Bustle in your hedgerow? Join Date: May 2011 Location: NOT Missouri Casino cash: $10004900	Here's my joke answer : #2 Tight End like Chris Wilson, Dick Vermeil's "Secret Weapon"
Posts: 2,418

08-09-2012, 09:56 PM	#24
Ming the Merciless Emporer of Mongo Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Milky Way Casino cash: $-502444	as a whole: Offensive Line and defensive line......the majority of the team. The trenches. Etc etc. Flame away, moforukkas __________________ ---- 2018 Adopt-A-Chief : Chris Conley 2017 Adopt-A-Chief : FRANK ZOMBO Click here-->*The Holy Chiefsplanet Lexicon **
Posts: 46,211

08-09-2012, 10:48 PM	#25
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2103447	Tier 1: QB Tier 2: passrusher LT #1 WR #1 CB Cover 2 MLB Tier 3: #2 WR feature RB 4-3 DT 3-4 DE 4-3 MLB CB Tier 4: Slot WR RT C TE 4-3 OLB SS FS Tier 5: Change of pace RBs Goal line RBs OG backup QB K P Tier 6: FB LS blocking TE special teamers
Posts: 59,688

08-09-2012, 11:06 PM	#26
Chiefs=Champions Training Camp Hero Join Date: Oct 2006 Casino cash: $8044801	Most important Qb Pass rushers Lt Cb Wr S Dline
Posts: 6,001