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Old 01-31-2013, 09:50 AM   #1
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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Originally Posted by mdchiefsfan View Post
How many screen passes were intercepted and how many "bombs" were intercepted?
You ready to flip out?

Here's Cassel's 2012 splits, charted by how far the ball traveled in the air. ALL of his picks (except 1 aberration) were on short or medium passes.
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Old 01-31-2013, 09:52 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
You ready to flip out?

Here's Cassel's 2012 splits, charted by how far the ball traveled in the air. ALL of his picks (except 1 aberration) were on short or medium passes.
If you never throw a pass beyond 15 yards until you're down by 20 pts odds are that's where most your INT's will be...
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Old 01-31-2013, 09:54 AM   #3
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If you never throw a pass beyond 15 yards until you're down by 20 pts odds are that's where most your INT's will be...
Down by 20 points is irrelevant.

Dude doesn't throw downfield much at all, ever.

Which was precisely DJ's point.

The guy is going to throw picks no mattter where he throws it. Might as well throw it deep. At worst, it's a punt. At best, it's a PI penalty and a 1st down.
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Old 01-31-2013, 09:56 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
Down by 20 points is irrelevant.

Dude doesn't throw downfield much at all, ever.

Which was precisely DJ's point.

The guy is going to throw picks no mattter where he throws it. Might as well throw it deep. At worst, it's a punt. At best, it's a PI penalty and a 1st down.
I'm not defending the POS I never wanted here.

He threw so many short passes you would have thought this was a WCO and you would have expected not average but extremely high completion percentages...
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:01 AM   #5
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I'm not defending the POS I never wanted here.

He threw so many short passes you would have thought this was a WCO and you would have expected not average but extremely high completion percentages...
I know, I'm not suggesting you are.

I'm just elaborating on DJ's point for mdchiefsfan.
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:19 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
You ready to flip out?

Here's Cassel's 2012 splits, charted by how far the ball traveled in the air. ALL of his picks (except 1 aberration) were on short or medium passes.
Those numbers are misleading if you really break it down:

1-10 yards make up 46% of his pass attempts at a 66% completion rate. He was picked off in this area on 4% of his attempts.

Add in the passes from the LOS and you make up for 66% of his passes which were picked off 3% of the time.

from 11-20 yards which make up 22% of his pass attempts with a 47.5 completion rate has him at a 4% chance of an interception/attempt.

Then add in all passes past 11 yards and you get 34% of his passes at a clip of 6% chance of interception/ attempt.

Obviously, you don't want to throw it out longer than 10 yards with Cassel.
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:20 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by mdchiefsfan View Post
Those numbers are misleading if you really break it down:

1-10 yards make up 46% of his pass attempts at a 66% completion rate. He was picked off in this area on 4% of his attempts.

Add in the passes from the LOS and you make up for 66% of his passes which were picked off 3% of the time.

from 11-20 yards which make up 22% of his pass attempts with a 47.5 completion rate has him at a 4% chance of an interception/attempt.

Then add in all passes past 11 yards and you get 34% of his passes at a clip of 6% chance of interception/ attempt.

Obviously, you don't want to throw it out longer than 10 yards with Cassel.



10-20 make up 8% of his total pass attempts
You're completely missing the point.
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:23 AM   #8
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You're completely missing the point.
please elaborate
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:27 AM   #9
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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please elaborate
By compressing the passing game vertically, you increase his completion percentage but you BARELY affect his overall interception percentage.

Furthermore, by compressing it SO much that he can actually complete some passes, you neuter the offense to the point they can't even get a first down.

You'd be better off to chuck it deep more often and see if you could get a PI penalty. At the very least you're stretching the field and decompressing your running game and if he throws a pick, it's basically the same as punting.
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:32 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
By compressing the passing game vertically, you increase his completion percentage but you BARELY affect his overall interception percentage.

Furthermore, by compressing it SO much that he can actually complete some passes, you neuter the offense to the point they can't even get a first down.

You'd be better off to chuck it deep more often and see if you could get a PI penalty. At the very least you're stretching the field and decompressing your running game and if he throws a pick, it's basically the same as punting.
The problem is teams didn't start defending the long ball at all because of his poor passing percentages. He constantly couldn't punish teams for stacking the box due to his lack of a vertical pass. They constantly dared him to pass over top and he couldn't do it.
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Old 01-31-2013, 11:21 AM   #11
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Those numbers are misleading if you really break it down:

1-10 yards make up 46% of his pass attempts at a 66% completion rate. He was picked off in this area on 4% of his attempts.
So he's an extremely timid passer.

And when you consider in his completion percentage he's just dog$#it...
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Old 01-31-2013, 11:26 AM   #12
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So he's an extremely timid passer.

And when you consider in his completion percentage he's just dog$#it...
I'm struggling to find another QB in the NFL that completed less than 70% of his passes BEHIND THE LOS.
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Old 01-31-2013, 11:28 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
I'm struggling to find another QB in the NFL that completed less than 70% of his passes BEHIND THE LOS.
Timid...
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"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).
Quote:
Originally Posted by rico
I wish I always ended up at gay bars.
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Old 01-31-2013, 11:29 AM   #14
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I'm struggling to find another QB in the NFL that completed less than 70% of his passes BEHIND THE LOS.
Brady Quinn?
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Old 01-31-2013, 11:37 AM   #15
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Brady Quinn?
He didn't complete a whole lot of passes anywhere...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rico
I wish I always ended up at gay bars.
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