Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

So Brad Johnson is basicly the "mean" of 1st round QBs. So if Brad Johnsons skill set is the average the real question would be where does Genos skill set fall in the bell curve. I do think Brad Johnson is a very average QB. He was merely in the right place at the right time to get his SB ring. Awesome D along with Gruden vs Raiders/Gannon.
Time will tell us all where Geno belongs and whether taking him or passing was the correct decision.
The biggest thing for the fans IMO is: If not now, when?
This draft has the feel of '08 when it was Matt Ryan or Jake Long.
No I don't really want "Matt Ryan" as my QB. He is not a franchise QB IMO. He cannot put a team on his back and win.
So if Reid and Dorsey view Geno as "Matt Ryan" I hope we do pass on him because we would be stuck with a good QB that can't win you a SB.

No. Brad Johnson is the mean of the #1 overall pick. In other words, you can expect the #1 overall pick in the draft to have a career comparable to Brad Johnson.

That isn't necessarily bad. Johnson had a couple of pro-bowls and a Super Bowl ring.

[Crush]

Could Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, or Tyler Bray could be a franchise QB? We don't know. They could be and the potential reward is worth the risk.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Crush

Could Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, or Tyler Bray could be a franchise QB? We don't know. They could be and the potential reward is worth the risk.

Based upon your "definition" of a franchise caliber QB, none of those guys would project to be likely prospects.

If "willing a team to win" is what makes a QB franchise caliber, the Chiefs need to stay as far away from Geno as possible. Geno managed to "will" the Mountaineers to an astonishing 7-6 record last year (4-5 in conference). During the course of his college career, he managed to "will" his team to an 0-3 record against Ryan Nassib, who you don't even mention in the conversation as a franchise caliber QB in this year's draft. "Willing a team to win" requires a certain level of innate competitiveness, yet Geno stayed away from the Senior Bowl for fear of either injury or hurting his draft stock.

The only player the Chiefs should consider to be a franchise QB based on his ability to will a team to win is EJ Manuel. He's only the second player in NCAA history to win 4 Bowl games as QB. He didn't shy away from the Senior Bowl; he won the MVP. He doesn't throw as pretty of a ball as Geno. He doesn't have the gaudy stats like Geno. The big knock on him is that the Seminoles didn't win the Nat. Championship while he was there as many had hoped so "he sucked." But he is more of a "winner" than any of the other draft prospects at QB.

Would you be happy if the Chiefs selected him with the #1 overall pick?

[boogblaster]

after i saw him go to shit in the KState game .. i lost my trust in him .. what could he do in the NFL with those defenses .. nothing .....

[NorthernWV]

Originally Posted by boogblaster

after i saw him go to shit in the KState game .. i lost my trust in him .. what could he do in the NFL with those defenses .. nothing .....

He threw for 500+ yards against LSU with Claiborne, Matthieu, Reid, Mingo, etc...he didn't only torch bad defenses, he did it to good ones too

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by NorthernWV

He threw for 500+ yards against LSU with Claiborne, Matthieu, Reid, Mingo, etc...he didn't only torch bad defenses, he did it to good ones too

I like Geno but I don't get why people bring up that game.

His ypa was awful in that game. He threw the ball like 60 times and probably should have throw 5 interceptions but 3 were dropped.

[B14ckmon]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I like Geno but I don't get why people bring up that game.

His ypa was awful in that game. He threw the ball like 60 times and probably should have throw 5 interceptions but 3 were dropped.

No. And One of those INTs wasn't even his fault. It was Austin's.

[MTG#10]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.

Rape

[DTLB58]

Duh?

[Chief Roundup]

What percentage of busts are because of the team that drafted them? By the term "team" I am including owners, FO and coaches. I am sure that there have been several QBs that would have been successful if they would have been put into a better situation.

[Chiefnj2]

All this article says is that for every Peyton Manning you have a Jamarcus Russell, so the player that falls in the middle of those types is Brad Johnson. In a perfect world of averages, you end up with Brad Johnson. It doesn't take into account the strength and/or weakness of each draft class, or a teams proclivity for screwing up the draft or drafting well.

[Alex Smith 4Ever]

7 of the 9 teams drafting behind us desperately need a QB. If Geno was a great prospect, why isn't anyone trying to trade up?

[B14ckmon]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith 4Ever

7 of the 9 teams drafting behind us desperately need a QB. If Geno was a great prospect, why isn't anyone trying to trade up?

Because a lot of these teams got ****ed by the owners and received no compensation picks.

And if you were including the Jaguars, we are currently being crippled by some run of the mill missouri bundle of sticks named Blaine.

[Alex Smith 4Ever]

Originally Posted by B14ckmon

Because a lot of these teams got ****ed by the owners and received no compensation picks.

And if you were including the Jaguars, we are currently being crippled by some run of the mill missouri pillowbitergot named Blaine.

The Redskins got screwed by the owners on their cap space and they had no problem trading two firsts and a second to move up

[B14ckmon]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith 4Ever

The Redskins got screwed by the owners on their cap space and they had no problem trading two firsts and a second to move up

...Because they have two first and a second to blow.

The Jaguars for example, just spent the 2011 draft giving up picks to trade up for the shitty missouri kid, and then we spent picks again last year trading up for blaine. We have like 25 people on the roster right now.

The Eagles easily have the best QB situation out of any of them.

The Raiders are paying Palmer a ton and I liked what I saw from Pryor in his start.

The Browns just took TWO QBs early.

Bruce Arians is making up some shit about no "Wow" qbs so he has an excuse to stick with his secret lover Drew Stanton.

Bills are short on picks and their HC wants his buddy Ryan back.