Patriots' defense last night

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by BWillie

The only time you have to be a threat to run is 2nd and 2, 3rd and 2 and shit like that. Otherwise you are giving up expected yards and points. Some coach will come around soon and literally never run on 1st and 10 or 2nd and 10. There just is no reason to do it unless your QB is Sam Darnold.

Would not running EVER on 1st and 10 or 2nd and 10 lower your passing efficiency on those downs? Yes, slightly. But not enough to justify ever running instead of passing on those downs. Compare it to 3rd and 10 where every idiot in the building knows you are passing it EVERYTIME and teams are still more effective passing it on those downs than they are running it on 1st and 10. And the run on 1st and 10 even has the advantage of catching the defense off guard because they dont know if its a run or pass.

You can't look at those probabilities in a vacuum. The Patriots were rushing 3 and dropping 8. You can't just pass on every down against a defense like that. It's not efficient at all.