Lions cutting Trey Flowers

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

DE > S

We have a desperate need for bodies at both positions. Personally, I take the DE.

Sure.

And S > IR

You have to weigh the potential return against the odds of actually getting that.

It's how you calculate the settlement value of a lawsuit. If you have a case with say $10 million in potential damages and a 40% chance of actually winning, you have a case worth roughly $4 million dollars.

If you have a case worth $6 million and an 70% chance of winning, your $6 million case is actually worth roughly $4.2 million (after subtracting the costs of litigation, but now we're going too deep in the weeds).

In other words, the more lucrative case is actually the less 'valuable' one.

In this case you have a DE in Flowers who may be a $10 million player if he hits, but he's 35% likely to be that guy. So he's 'worth' $3.5 million. Whereas in Collins case he may be a $5 million dollar player but he's 80% likely to hit that mark so he's 'worth' $4 million.

Such is my calculus anyway. It's the variation in the figures that creates the question. I'm just saying that when it gets down to it, the latter is the guy I'd rather have with the values that I'm assigning them.